Is it really luck? All three of us jump in the same stock. Put sell limits 15 cents above. I do not see the guy moving that well, put my sell limit 10 cents above. They do not, they stick through thinking he will go through. I think he might but do not feel it is worth the risk. 20 seconds later I get out. 40 seconds, they do not and get hurt for 20 cents as the bid dissapears and the specialist drops. Are you saying I was just lucky?
It does feel like being insider. SEC can pullup accounts sometimes for that reason. They cancel citations after you get them cured thogh.
The market is same a gambling vis a vis change. After a while you will see the changes in both. The market is most affected by the change in data transfer and the spectrum of players. Newer market traders are easier to anticipate. You aben see here that people do not behave very efficiently.
But there are people everyday who are in positions to do take advantage of others or profit off of others but instead choose to look out for others instead. For example, there is the guy in Mass (aired on 60 minutes a few times) who, when his garment factory was on fire, chose to pay his many workers for months while the factory was rebuilt. Then, when he was given a great offer to exit the business just as his company was in the most trouble, he refused because he couldn't bare the thought of laying off so many workers that relied on the factory. Today that guy's factory is barely getting along, but the owner is happy knowing that he has looked out for many hundreds of families while still providing a good product and quality service. Obviously, not many people (me included) would probably go to this length, but the point is that there are very good people out there, let alone people who are not selfish, greedy snakes, so I don't agree that ALL people would act as Gates has were they given his situation.
I submit that there are a lot of people, men and women, that make a pretty good living playing poker at casinos. They are the regulars that take the money from tourists. The casinos donât care if the pro has an advantage as the casinos, not unlike the brokers, take a little off the top form each transaction. The professional has an edge. He knows the odds, only stays in the game when they are in his favor and has developed the ability to read people. In short he has an edge. They way I understand it the same applies to traders. Although the outcome of each trade is uncertain and could be considered a gamble, by knowing the odds, only staying in the game when they are in his favor and developing the ability to read people(the market), the trader has an edge. You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em, know when to walk away etc etc etc. Applies to both traders and gamblers. The professional doesnât bet his whole stake on one hand. Money management is just as important in gambling as in trading. By having an edge and controlling the size of his transaction the successful trader/gambler will make money in the long run. Thatâs the theory anyhow.
I don't know the exact numbers of how many people trade for a living or how many people gamble for a living. What I do know is that some people do trade for a living, and some people do gamble for a living, and there are some people who do both. I don't know any brain surgeons, but I do not conclude from that that there are no brain surgeons. There may be as many people who gamble for a living as who trade stocks. The exact number of either group would be difficult to verify, particularly the gambling group. And I don't think it matters anyhow. There are hundreds of millions of people who work in factories, and many fewer who trade for a living. That doesn't mean that your prospects of making a living trading are worse than if you work in a factory. The fact is, your potential for making money is far greater by trading stocks than it could be for working in any factory, unless you own the factory. And even then, you could end up on 60 minutes for being a swell guy who makes sure the factory workers all keep their jobs, while you struggle every day to keep out of bankruptcy. Yet if you try to tell a factory worker that you trade stocks for a living, you will quite likely get from them the response "I know hundreds of people who work in factories, but I don't know anyone who trades stocks for a living, so therefore trading stocks could not be a viable way to make a living."