trading is LUCK ???

Discussion in 'Trading' started by quickTRADER, Mar 26, 2003.


  1. There is a distinction to be made between casino gamblers and traders. That is all I am saying. On any particular trade anything could possibly happen but do traders' P&Ls depend largely on on the outcome of a single trade? Sometimes....but in such cases we call it GAMBLING (especially when a single trade makes a positive number into a negative one). If you trade like that then you are a gambler not a trader. Please note that I never said Traders could not possibly reduce Trading to Gambling.....I just said that traders who do so can not make a living at it. I stand by my claim.
     
    #51     Mar 27, 2003
  2. JORGE

    JORGE

    Never meant to insinuate you could make a consistent living in a casino, just saying that everytime you make a trade, no matter how high you think the odds are, it is still a gamble. Therefore you could say that trading is gambling. And I don't think that is a bad thing.
     
    #52     Mar 27, 2003
  3. JORGE

    JORGE

    I agree, I was making my statement based on Websters definition of gambling, not what society considers gambling.

    I have been involved in the markets for long enough to appreciate the role luck occasionally plays in my P/L.
     
    #53     Mar 27, 2003
  4. Mecro

    Mecro

    Well yeah, but what he did and is still doing is just way overboard. Being a business, there is such a concept as social responsibility. MS stands for the absolute opposite like destroying innovation and keep PC software in the stone-age because Bill Gates just cannot get enough money. Actually, Gates has a serious self-inferiority complex where he feels like he needs to be on top at all time and when he is on top, he feels like he needs to be higher. With all that money he is still a pathetic mofo. I wonder if he even realizes how horrible MS products are.

    I hope he rots in hell.
     
    #54     Mar 27, 2003
  5. I have been told by people on here that saying you are an experienced poker player on your resume is considered a big plus when interviewing for a job at an investment firm.

    Yes the same can be said of playing casino games: Strategy and risk management are the keys to consistent profitability in casino games.

    I believe from your remarks that when you refer to gambling you are thinking that gambling is all blind luck: rolling dice, pulling a slot machine lever, betting blindly on a roulette wheel. My remarks about gambling and how it compares to trading are based on my knowledge that in most casino games there are certain mathematical variables, which if you work them out you can (if you are clever) work out strategies of money management that will consistently bring you profits. Let me clue you in to the first fact of this: to be successful, you do not place your fortune on the outcome of the next deal. You cannot predict the very next deal, or any particular deal. This is what I think you are picturing when you talk about "gambling". But what you can do is design a strategy that will work in your favor over the course of a series of bets. It's an art, you see. And believe me, it's an art which will greatly benefit your trading skills. Because the same is true of stock trading: you cannot place your fortune on the outcome of the very next movement of the market. It is not steadfastly predictable. We'd like to think it is, we'd like to think that all you have to do is watch the news reports on companies like a hawk, and catch the movement that should result from that news. When you start trading yourself, you will find out how untrue this is.

    Gambling is about managing randomness, creating strategy to cover all the possible outcomes of what is unpredictable. The stock market is unpredictable. If you can create a "gambling strategy" for the stock market, then you can hope to be consistently profitable with trading.
     
    #55     Mar 27, 2003
  6. Yes, it is possible to be successful over the longterm trading/gambling. The person who achieves this is a rare person. Most people couldn't, and that's why they work at jobs or steal to get money. But if you have the right kind of mind for it you can succeed at gambling or trading. I personally feel that gambling is more reliable over the longterm. This is because the stock market is constantly changing, while casino games remain consistent regardless of the year, month, day, minute.

    Many people who may do well in the market for a number of years, end up losing their touch because the market evolves and it may well evolve in ways that no longer match those people's mindsets. I believe to develop good gambling skills you are more likely to be set for life, than by playing the market, because of this.
     
    #56     Mar 27, 2003
  7. Actually, Gates didn't write it. He bought it off the cheap and resold it (not a bad business move), and then stole the windows idea from Apple, which was practically given the idea by IBM. Then Gates used unlawful and unethical (although he's not the only businessman to do it, and many others get away with it) to force competitiors out of the market (and to try to, for many products besides just the operating systems) and make his 2nd rate product (relative to some better products out there) the standard.
     
    #57     Mar 28, 2003
  8. Boib

    Boib

    <i>If you are gambling, no matter how good your money management skills are, you will likely go home broke.....I don't think the same is true with trading though. So it appears there IS a distinction between trading and gambling.....what a surprise Trading is not a rolling of the dice.......with proper strategy and risk management one can be consistently profitable in trading. Can the same be said of gambling at a casino? No.</i>

    Can you explain why Vegas Casinos ban card counters.
     
    #58     Mar 28, 2003
  9. exactly.

    the same reason the NYSE invents the 'liquidity quote.'
     
    #59     Mar 28, 2003
  10. Homer

    Homer

    any time you put your money at risk it is a gamble. The big question is, what side of the table are you are sitting at?? Are you the house or are you against the house. I feel that I am the house when I trade, I have an edge when I put a trade on. I definitely get nailed once in a while (more so lately, stupid market):( , but over the long haul the house always wins. Finding an edge in the market and taking advantage of it is the key to survival in my opinion.
    Good Luck,
    Homer
     
    #60     Mar 28, 2003