Guessing is just the word I used to reflect the uncertainty of any one trade as you can not know with absolute certainty the outcome of any one event (trade). The "getting better" part is seeing an increase in the quality of your guesses over a series of events as discovered through back testing, forward testing, live trading, stats etc. You put 3,000, 5,000, 10,000, 50,000 serious hours in the charts you will get better at guessing.
Yeah this gambling theme keeps rearing its head. I'm a long only stocks swing trader, for me the outcomes relies on pure luck. If the markets keep rising I get lucky. If they fall I'm shit out of luck. If IPO's dry up, VC's buy up stock and take them off market, my chances diminish. If USA market falls it will drag down the ASX, dang out of luck again. If crypto goes belly up, I'll get buggered again in the long run. I need to exit fast to lock in profits but another good opportunity will dry up.... So on and so forth. I'm at the mercy of what the markets offer.
%% THAT must be why so many lotto players lose; stupid tax on people that cant do math. Some times it looks like insurance co cant do math-LOL; but turns out its more like grocer on a loss leader just to get you in the store + keep you there as long as possible
%% NO, not a gamble if they work @insurance co That's why girls-women get cheaper rates on LIFE insurance contract\ dont take as many risk / live longer More risk in an auto on sat nite sometimes+ more drunks on road.........
You hit the nail straight on the head. We're all gamblers wanting to make money. If not that, what the hell are we doing anyway? It's just a matter of deciding who's the worst degenerate gambler. As far as "sugarcoating" goes, it's the same for the cryptos as well. Don't pretend that you're investing in Bitcoin out of some noble cause, like believing in how BTC will level the playing field for the poor or that it will replace the evil fiat currency. For crying out loud, just admit that you're investing for the money. All you want is to make GENERATIONAL WEALTH. Otherwise, enough with your bullshit.
The reason traders don't realize that's it's gambling and most occurrences are luck, is that they attribute successes to good decisions and loss of money as bad decisions. This is entirely false. Most occurrences in trading are luck and losing money doesn't mean you made a mistake and winning doesn't mean you did well. The fact that's it's impossible to know if a decision was good or bad, and statistics don't get you far at all regardless of massive sample size, keeps people trying to beat the hardest game out there: consistent risk adjusted gains in trading, even though buying and holding passive indices probably makes a lot more sense.
That is indeed true. But, part of the reason I started with Bitcoin in the first place was to see the people have a currency that wasn't tied with the government that was also annonymous. And as much as I would like to see that come true, crypto has gone down a completely different path that is now working with the government. And even though it has gone down a different path, my dreams of watching it get adopted as well as making a profit are still proving true. So I've learned to just accept it for what it is. An investment asset that can also be used to send money for cheap. I'm more of a investor that buys into only what he believes in. All my investments are long term holdings of what I truely believe in. I take that back, Shiba Inu is an investment of mine that I don't believe in lol