My mistake, I was referring to the DOW. Jury is still out on QQQ. I commend you for your conviction and tenacity, hope you are correct that we won't go there. However, in the grand scheme of things, in the long term, if we are persistent and don't give up, bears and bulls can both profit from their convictions.
If this is a true re-accumulation attempt, "they" will keep price down here while the mass long term index investors start losing their jobs and have no choice but to sell to the pro boys in order to survive.Not fear selling but out of necessity selling is what will force the long term buy and hold crowd to give up chips.
of course both can make money... it's all about probability... and short term success rate is so low it's not even worth trying unless you really enjoy the game, aside from looking for money, because money can be made so much more easily via other ways... long side success rate is much higher, even them dumb mom pops with blind 401k can retire in the end on that.... that's the point. probability of success.... it applies to a single trade, also to ones financial life. I said in the past day trading, or short term for that matter, can have better success when vola is high.... any basic trend follow can make money. just for me personally I need to have the value proposition lined up, thats why I shorted 2000 but not 2008... 2000 was obious bubble... 2008 it was nuetral for me as I don't follow real estate closely. regarding re-accumulation. - that's why the action is so violant. corona comes and goes too quickly. china/korea already shown the peaking pattern lasts not that long. unlike a real bubble of 2000, or a systemic sickness in sub prime, the unwind can take years... corona is a short term shock and the shake operation must be swift to gain maximum benefit. right equity is still 'ridiculously cheap' even in Warren's words if the rates stay down here.... right now we are not 'staying' here, we are even going lower on the rates! - I also mentioned getting to almost the same vix peak in 2008, that was a 55% down for the qqq, this time we only did about half.... internal strength! or from a different angle... right now we are about 25% down... exactly the maximum peak to valley in december 2018... but vix peak was only 36 in dec 2018! me boys really did it this time by pumping so much fear into it... 24/7 360 degrees of media bombardment plus all the politicians CYA on a nothing burger.... human stupidity at the highest level..... goes back to one of my earlier point - do NOT respect the market.... human stupidity all over.... but respect the boyz... you see how they operate. summer 2015 - big shake on China slow down.... China has always been slowing right, why was aug2015 THAT significant Jan 2016 low oil scare - low oil good for economy right, plus a few years ago they already scared us once with peak oil? but a shake is a shake, whatever story works. and wht the fck was feb 2018, vix 50, i don't even remember what the story was. and of course Oct to Dec 2018 the inflation scare, such bs story when the rest of the world was going negative rates. and again this time they floated the low oil BS again, but only to kill it couple of days later as corona obviously works much better for pumping fear so forget oil for now.... nobody talking about it even we are already at lower oil than the initial shock couple of weeks ago? why does oil not matter now? you have to admire the boyz, how they execute these operations. so there are no holes in my theory right.... I am a physical chemistry PhD.... the approach is scientific, you put out a hypothesis, they you look for evidence to prove or defeat it.... so far too much supporting evidence.
except a corona scare is much shorter than the unwinding of the 2000 bubble, where high flying pigs with no earnings had to die and public FOMO participation was about twice as high as today's, which is on the low end of historical average.. check AAII bullish %, we are constantly on the low 30%... lower side of the band. 2008 also took long time to unwind... the foreclosure takes months/years. China is already back to full capacity. Q1 took a big shock but your gonna see a big rebound in Q2 as pend up demand will have to be fulfilled.... people have been locked in for so long they gonna go out spend like mad. same in the rest of the world, the peaking may take a big longer as the lock-down hasn't been as strict as China, so far, but the virus can't spread infinitely, and summer is also coming to kill the virus anyway. so other than the toilet papers.... everyhting else people cannot buy they gonna go spend like made in Q2... and with the gov now tossing dollars from helicopter to keep biz and individuals afloat, there will be very little unwinding to do.... nobody is going thru a foreclosure-like process to get back to normal... the economy was on fire before the virus... all the capacity is still there, as long as they don't file bankrupcies and employees are just on some temporary furlow whatever, it's fine.... virus goes, all the capacity will back to full production. that's why them boyz been shaking so hard, them know the days are numbered... must take full advantaeg.
aside from the points I made about the % down vs. vix peaks compared to past corrections.. look at the candles since 2/28 the initial shock, sure the market deserves some downage now that corona is here, but after 2/28 look at the AMZNs and the AAPLs, intraday up candles out number the down ones by 2/1 while them boys managed to push the price another 10+% down... that's why I say you gotta admire the boyz and get on the same page with them... massive shake and scoop operation executed to perfection in every level. - 24/7/360 media bombardment; - shake and scoop by pushing the open way down under relatively thin volume then shake intraday to collect chips. apparently the most cost effective way to do it.
so I asked before how many fcking dips does it take for people to learn... it's a rhetorical question because people never will. heck just look at THIS correction alone, how many up and downs does it take for people to learn it's a massive shake and scoop operation and there are no bulls and bears. impossible to have this kind of price action if this is driven by fundamental bears overwhelming the fundamental bulls..... it's the same fcking group of people doing this. still nobody seeing this?
That was what he claimed during them White House Press Conferences every morning. Said it is necessary to follow his 15 days guidelines because this is WAR.
its only a guideline... the US can't really implement the china - like shut in because there people live in these communities called 'XiaoQu' in cities it's like a college dorm complex with guards at the gate so you can actually control ins and outs. the US communities are completely different, no way to control that way.