If you want to use poker as an analogy then you cannot compare it to a live game unless you are on the trading floor. Trading with a computer can be compared to online poker. You don't know who is on the other side of the trade or what motivates them. All you can do is play the cards you are dealt and the cards on the table. The cards on the table represent the news every one has. Thinking that you have more information than the other players will give you a false sense of security. It gives you a bias that may lead you to ignore what the market is telling you. The difference is that you cannot bluff the market. You are going to get called every time. Personally I don't see the analogy. For one you can't have your chips back if you decide you don't have a good hand. You can't fold then get back into a hand if the flop is good. And everyone playing is at the same table and you are not sure who you are betting against. A good poker player will not necessarily make a good trader because different skills are required.
need some extensive thinking skills here. retail cannot bluff the pros. the pros can bluff retail, who has the media at their disposal. The news are more like the 'tells'.. because everyone interpret thems differently. Cards do not need interpretation. As far as chips/flops/folds go, Zen and the Art of Poker is often regarded as a book that applies to trading very well. You do not know all the other individual traders in the market. But the categories of players are limited. retail and pros; longs, shorts and flats.... if you look at it this way, there are only a few players sitting at the table.
Exactly the point I was making. Because of the way you interpret the news you develop a bias that may cause you to ignore what the market is telling you.
just as if you read a 'tell' wrong you may lose the hand.... but that separates the good players from the average, doesn't it? at the final table, what do you see the best players do? they do everything possible to get 'tells' from others. this goes back to an earlier point - every advantage counts... there is a dimension of information that is worth exploring.
Watch the losing players. They all think they have the best hand. For whatever reason they don't believe what the cards on the table and the actions of their opponent are telling them. At any rate we use the tools we are comfortable with and have worked in the past. Looking forward to seeing some real-time reads on the market tells. Good Trading!!
Trading is a LOT more like a fight than any other analogy I've found. And in ANY fight, ANYthing can happen. The ones you think are going to be easy, are the ones you are likely to find you really have your hands full, the ones you should have sat out somehow.
I Understand what you’re trying to do. And the way you trade has it’s place. A poster on another forum years ago posted a very great thread entitled “An institutional look at the s&p futures”. A simple google search will find it. Shows a somewhat similar approach as the original poster is trying to show.