I 100% agree with both of you that we should be looking to go long for exactly the reasons you state. Once earnings come out, things will snap back with the fed pump at our backs.
I know it's gut wrenching, but you have to step back and take a bigger perspective. if it's gut wrenching for you its exactly what the crowd is feeling. I mean otherwise how would a shake be effective? I just made a post.... I really admire them boys - 62 vix with a couple of nothing burgers - I have explained why both oil and virus are nothing burgers. goes along with what I have always posted - - them boys control the media; - it's a media driven society; - the society is a moron with 100 IQ and the attention span only long enough to digest the f'cking 6pm evening news. like I said before... be ONE with the market, aka them boys.... they are shaking FOR YOU, they are cleansing for you, they are scooping up... you should do the same. that is if you have the confidence in your read. but if all this is too head-ache-ish, just buy blind and forget it.
so came back a bit... it's ok... basically all the shakes in the past are out of the same play book. in other words, walk the shakes again, aug 2015, jan 2016, oct 2018, not only the price action, but check the archives of the news campaign, you will see it's all the same play book. few weeks from now when you look back, you will see, 20/20, what this shake is all about. the difference between a master and a minion, is if you can actually see thru it when the shake is happening. like I said the only thing I don't have is a seat at the secret meeting, but once it does happen you can already see several steps ahead, because the play book is all the same.
big picture wise don't forget... 10 year is like 0.5% now... so 200 p/e? while SPY is forward yielding like 6% check again my thread from 2016 'are we running out of shares'... what has changed? if anything, now it's even more compelling, back in 2016 was like 2.5% what are the bond buyers doing here - financial suicide? the only sense it makes now is like what hapened in europe, a bond long trade can only profit if the rates go further into the negative.... aint saying that can't happen, anything is possible... but can you sleep well at night.. so now you have aapl bonds yielding 2.25% on the open market while the forward earning yield is close to 6.... almost a 4% gap... who in their right mind would not issue all the bonds possible to the open market bond buying idiots and buy back the stocks and get 4% for free? we ARE running out of shares. don't listen to monday morning quarterbacks saying well you should wait for a dip... do a back test... waiting for dip always under perform even blind buys... even if you caught THIS dip, what about going forward. I am talking about a multi year situation that can change your financial life.... not some quick turn around that's gonna net you a couple grand.... you see a lot of short termers jerking off these days because they been losing for so long... forex IG consistently showing shorts outnumbering the longs for many years since 2016... them guys been losing shirts for so many years, finally a couple of weeks of small profits and these guys are jerking off. pathetic.
easy to say... how many have 'traded' to the top 1%. I am not wanting nothing. I see the way it is therefore I do what I do.
https://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2020/03/10/9220640.html use auto translation if you don't read Chinese... China, especially Wuhan the epicenter, is on the way to put this whole thing behind. the rest of the world is like after-shocks of a major earth quake, most of the western world have much less density of population and the after shocks can't possibly be severe. there maybe another round of eruptions in places like India or Africa, but sanitation in those places are so poor maybe the virus can't even survive there lol. and again, check the A-shares shanghai index action. and again, the oil BS, we been there before, check the market action since early 2016
I don't know. Could this be what President Trump likes to say: Fake news? I do agree with you on one thing: The coronavirus impact on the economy is overblown. I maxed out my credit cards to go long. Just kidding, about maxing out my credit cards but not about going long.
100% I have done this back test numerous times. The only time buying the dip outperforms is if you leverage up.
I tried. Hard to do proper backtest buying the dip because one usually peeked at forward prices and adjusted the parameters to fit the outcome, maximizing gains.