same thing the brain scientist does.... this is also a lead in to some more thoughts for today - a lot can be said in times like these because this is what truly separates those who get free virgins from those who wont. first of all the fundamentals - the yield gap has been wide since the early 2010's, so equities must go up.... but back then, remember 2011? it felt real that we might go back to recession? I was actually about 65/35 equity bonds back then because the bond yields were still ok. fast forward a bit.. 2015 summer... what was the story? do people still remember? if you learn how a master thinks - you will start to pay attention and never forget.... it was 'China slow down'... but China was only 5% of SPY sales, and if they slip from 8% growth to 6%, what's the biggie? but that was enough to shake it 15% down. then early 2016? people remember? of course they don't.... it was the oil crisis.... you'd think cheap oil is good for corporate profits? but no we went lock step with oil for a couple of months just for the sake of shaking it up... the rumor was some sovereign funds from oil countries had to sell due to cheap oil.... but why was it a problem only in early 2016 lol? so if you think like this your conviction on the long side will be affirmed by these shakes, instead of weakened, 2016 is when I went all in on the QQQs and the MAGAs, back then valuation was cheaper, aapl was 1 point selling for 10 forward p/e.... I was like fuck it, if they flat growth forever I will hold it 10 years and get the company for free.... back then also qqq didn't have any p/e premium over the spy.... historically there should be a 20% premium because of the growth rate, which is what we have now.... and folks still remember early 2018 there was a 10% shake? some bogus story I don't even remember now. end of 2018 like I said was the only one felt half real, the inflation scare... 10 year yield went to 4%, if it climbs to 6% then the p/e expansion is in risk.... but as it turns out Europe can't get out of negative, so there goes that story. now lets talk corona.. US annual flu death is 10-50k, lets call it 30k average... some outlier year may be high as 80k, but we never sell off on flu? China has 4x the population, so call it 100k ish? so far corona death is what, 3k? so it's a man made panic, no? and also look at the A-shares action, all recovered back to pre-corona, no? and we have zero death in the US, we panic now? of course the crowd is media driven, so we panic.. remember who controls the media? why do we panic now? why not when there are actually some people dead in the US? timing - we are 1.5 months away from another block buster earnings from the MAGAs, so shake now, accumulate till like mid March? then pull it up for the big earning release.... rinse repeat, it's the same shit every quarter. how many die from road kill per day? how many from strokes and cardiovascular? people still driving that flipper over SUV to get the double cheese big mac, no? but let's panic on a zero-death-so-far thingie? and even if, we have a big outbreak, and lots of people die... how does this corona work? if you take a socialpathic point of view, is this NOT a net PLUS for the economy? it doesn't affect the young and the strong too much, it mostly kills off the weak and the old lol, imagine a pensioner who was gonna draw for the next 20 years, but walaa - he dead, no more burden on the society lol. it's so bogus... it SHOULD give you clarity to the market.... which I will explain below... I don't look at it as 'bulls and bears'... AAII % usually fluctuates a bit around 1/3 for both, that would not explain why the dow goes up 500 one day and down 1000 the next. you gotta look at it as 'smart and dumb'... the smart guys they know where it's going... them working big orders from corporate buy backs and central bank buy-ins.... and their bonus is measured by VWAP.... so how to get the best prices... like I said these shakes cost money, some people scooping up... and them 401k'ers blind contributions also scooping up, but in a secret meeting they must have decided that the cost is worth the benefit which is knocking out a lot of stop orders if they think a lot of people have mortgaged houses.... like I don't see any on ET but perhaps people are closet mortgagers lol because free virgins are too attractive lol. so there is the explanation how the market works.... I am telling you folks if you think like this it will become so clear, why everything happens... you will never bother with anything else... there are many ways to make money, but this way is so easy. the only thing I can't tell you is when they decide to knock it down, I don't have a seat at the secret meeting. but 2015 and 2016, basically made the bottom of the century... along the way you will have bogus stories like this to shake people.... but again like I said, if you think like this you will become ONE with the market, you will be on the same page with the smart boys... and you will APPRECIATE shakes because them boys are doing the cleansing for you... they are working the big orders in a very orderly way... it's all part of the plan.
There are no big boys. One guy single handedly took down the entire market. Dozu theories are hocus pocus Google for Navinder Singh, Trader blamed for 2010 'flash crash'
Don't underestimate the coronavirus impact. With a death rate of 2% and a R0 of 2-3, easily everyone in China could be infected, that is 28 million death just China alone. The Spanish flu of 1918 had a death rate of about 1-2% and it killed 50-100 million people worldwide. I bought GILD options as a hedge.
There maybe no pro boys but don't discount @dozu888 too much. His opinions of what happened since 2009 has been quite correct.
1918... the medical technology back then was like abacus, literally, compared to supercomputers of today.
ok so we come back up a bit.... and price action on the shakes are also similar.. you gonna hit an area where the value is so good and the boys don't want to press further down no more.. so people who bot at close yesterday or earlier today in the money now... they are dreaming about sleeping with virgins, only to see the profits evaporate in the coming couple of days... because like in my last post, timing wise we are too far from the earnings.... so they gonna shake it for a couple of more weeks.... stay nimble, take profit quit in both directions. 'there maybe no pro boys'... you bet your ass there are! just watch how they work the price, in tandem with the media story pushes.... everything is part of the plan! accumulate for a couple of weeks.... corona news aint dead... more travel bans, more people lining up for face masks, more people buying costco bags of rice out of stock.. idiots lol.. then walaa - people realize what the fuck, this thing already under control in China, such densely populated country with 2nd class medical facilities, why are we panicing in the USA where populations are far less dense and 1st class medical techs.. then we push up, the MAGAs and the Teslas again block buster earnings and all is forgotten, until we push another BS thing called sell in May and go away. it's the same shit, over and over, and over....
Not really, though. Marketsurfer wasn't a full-time market cheerleader. In fact, he believed there was no such thing as a trend and always peddled weird trading strategies. He was a big Victor Niederhoffer fan. While Niederhoffer is an interesting guy, his trading results mimicked an aggressive options seller. He had great, steady returns (40-50% annually) until a crisis blew his fund up. It happened in the 97 Asian currency crisis and in the 2007 subprime mess (he lost 75% before the stock market actually tanked in '08). I'm sure he would've blown up in 2018 as well if he still had a fund. Dozu is in the permabull/long-term trend follower camp.
and again - the 'bulls and bears' view of the market is completely useless... you can't have people changing views so fast from yesterday to today.... again it's all part of the plan... them boys using lots of bullets to press down.... doesn't mean they are bears... they are bulls but using bullets to kill dumb money stop orders.... that's the correct view.... that's how you read everything with logic.
What you said applies to everyone, whether you have $5K, $500K, $50M, don't risk more than 10-20% of your capital trading. Yes, harder if you only have $5K but the concept is the same.