The thread should be called “ trading is easy- as long as you are long lol” . Dozu has been pretty spot on. Don’t know if the trade will work or not as it is not over yet.... he is calling long cost avg set and forget.....so far so good.
I am not a perma bull... I started in 2000 shorting the naz bubble... it's just that in this environment this yield gap is too big and will take long time to close.... I mean my boys can close it in a couple of months if they want to, but that will attract too much speculation money, therefore the typical long bull action.... shake and pull, shake and pull.
perhaps my wording was a bit fuzzy... what I meant was that the market behaves very differently in various time frames... to me short term trading is pointless.... the market does not unfold events in that fashion. my boys typically takes weeks/months to play out something. - introduce the story - leaks in the media, what not; - price start to move; - during this period there will be several counter moves; - at last the story is published, final move - dumb money rush in; - my boys exit and closes the chapter. this is how my boys operate. 'Trading is easy' means that if you breath in the same rhythm, it will feel easy.
1 random comment today - I think the next value pocket is Europe; look at the US... about 5 years ago when I went all in on QQQ/big techs, AAPL at 1 point was selling 10x forward, while junk was yielding 5.5%.... that was insane.. today it's not quite the screaming buy, but the value is still obvious, so can't really go wrong to buy more. but Europe has even a bigger gap, and a lot of bad news is baked in.... look at KaShing Li. he's accumulating Europe assets.... look him up if you don't know who he is lol. but globally speaking, stocks are the last class of asset still worth buying right? I mean good bonds and good real estate have all been pushed up to yielding 1-2%... yet you can still find quality companies yielding 5-6% on the index, maybe a lot more on the individuals. so the 'big value pocket' is obvious.. but I think Europe is screaming buy a bit louder.. but will need to do plenty research..
Trade differently than dozu, but reading through the thread ... I agree with so many of the sentiments of dozu here. I can't remember if it was dozu, or someone else ... but man? ET has been so illuminating to me. People are bitter. And so quick to jump to conclusions. For that I'm thankful. It's illuminating to see how so many in the public view trading and markets. Per my original post, I just stumbled across it from a search regarding one of Schwagers latest projects. And then I fell into the rabbit hole. It's like this venue for watching instant anger. It's sorta illuminating. And so many assumptions from so many. I made a couple of options comments? And dear God ... the assumptions. And dear lord, Options is precisely 5% of my book in one of my portfolios and 0% in another. I'm primarily trading different directional programs on outrights. I'm sort of "system agnostic". My longer-term strats on the outrights are more math based. But as some of my processes / strats are longer term? The concepts and ideas that dozu is talking about? Are spot on.
So ravar's allocation to vol is small so that justifies your posting of utter nonsense on here? You don't have a f*cking CLUE what you're doing, Bro. Duzo doesn't trade. raVar, your bona fides on spec? Prop-trader, eh?
thanks for the comments.... people are bitter, because people don't make money! lol.... this is not a legit business... there was a thread talking about in the past decades all the advances in the SP happened overnight... in other words all the day sessions added together is just one giant cluster f where people try to take money out of each others pocket lol. only the very smart and very lucky few make it in the stock market. if you go to something like real estate forum, very different... a generally positive expectancy legit business, and a lot of guys already 'made it' are willing to help beginners, with legit info...
Know about _ exactly zero _ about the Real estate market. Less than zero. Heheh ... But I have heard similar things from folks I know in the real estate arena. That more advanced real estate folks are very willing to help new folks. Currency trader I knew years ago liked to say: "In trading? You can tell who is making money, and who isn't. People who make money consistently, are usually happy and smiling. How can you be making money, and be angry?"