up reason: ECB MIGHT raise rate DOWN reason: sovereign debt open: short when up reason priced in, e.g. >1.40 close: buyback at first resistant, e.g. 1.397-1.398 risk/stoploss: if there are NEW UP reasons, analyze to decide hold on or take loss. Edge: NO.actually disadvantage: when UP reason known, it is too late. Opportunity: But it looks like a good opportunity. DOWN reason will pull eur down, which not go away soon. Any comments? Any risk?