I strongly believe in intuition. While I'm almost completely a systematic trader, there are some patterns that I simply cannot code nearly as well as I can trade them. I have come to regard the intuitional trades as how I pick up new ideas and help balance the sometimes unpleasant drawdown of mechanical systems. If I feel "good" I'll take intuition trades; if I'm tired or just not "with it", I simply follow my systems. hope this adds value to the discussion.
Your answer lies in your own post. Say this back to yourself.... "..I don't mean to sound resisting to these ideas..." Your conflict is a result of your association of intuition with an expectation. You have wired intuition and outcome together and the latter is no longer supporting the former. You are now resisting and not accepting. Are you wondering where your intuition went? No where. You have lost nothing. The problem is your looking for something that was never lost. For that matter, it may of never existed. You created it yourself in order to validate your outcome. You are looking at this like you lost the keys to your car. If you don't have your keys you can't drive your car, right? Are you saying if you lose your intuition your trading will suffer? A self-fulfilling prophecy that will certainly feed upon itself. You are only as good as your last trade, and the outcome of your last trade has nothing to do with how you take your next trade. Disassociation. Now ask yourself what your intuition has to do with your expectations of your trades. With a shunted mind, you are saying only if I have this can I achieve that. How about this suggestion. Stop grieving the loss of intuition and start celebrating its departure.
I think intuition is just the felt presence of the seed of experience before it germinates. If the intuition proves reliable about something it means that you are on the verge of understanding it. Chaos-intuition-understanding is a progression driven by time and effort. IMO.
As a boy I remember this Chinese toy/puzzle where you put your index fingers in either side of a bamboo mesh and try to pull them apart, the harder you pull the tighter the bamboo held onto your fingers, only by relaxing the tension on your fingers could you remove them. The same applies to intuition, its there but it won't surface if we try too hard and only by stepping back, without force, can we remove that block. Each day I focus on the task and than try to put that thinking in the background and let the natural flow take over. I know how and what needs to be done, now don't think it to death.......Pat
I think, luck and intuition have much in common - both are fleeing and ever changing in context of a changing market. It's my goal to make things more rule based and only allow intuition to override every once in a while - if "things are perceived to be out of whack" too much. What I am trying to say is - don't count on "feelings", "intuition", and other "black arts" too much. Base your trading on fundamentals (much was lost in the internet bubble because of the US public disdain for reason), technicals and lastly intuition and smokes and mirrors. intuition should be just a 3rd very seldom used venue for a "golden parachute" in your trading when either fundamentals and technicals are over overused but something don't seem right based on the fundamentals.
Rogue Trader, this is an interesting view..celebrate its departure. The last few months have required that I see setup, see the trigger for entry, take it, go with it. Stop out, take profit, whichever outcome the market offers. There is really no intuitive anticipation in this kind of trading (for me at least). This is different from the last couple years as a lot of my bias came from an intuitive feel and then went with setups in this bias direction. I have one question on this: Celebrating it's departure but believing that it still has its place in an overall trading plan. How does one resolve this dichotomy of necessity? So far a great discussion..I've learned a bit of how others feel about this issue and look forward to more input. Chris
Andrasnm, your post is basically what I've reverted to, almost to the word (minus fundamentals as my short term time frame doesn't rely on this). I do like this "see setup, take it" mindset for most of my trading. It works. Most of my inquiry here mainly has to do with discussion on what kinds of things might block intuitive impulses of a trader that uses it in their trading. I also realize that many traders like to mask their successes and losses behind this issue and create some kind of BS mystery about their great "trading" skills. Some guys like Steve Cohen are incredible in their intuitive feel of the markets. Others that guess at prices here and there and use "I just felt it was right" as their primary reason for entry/exit I'm a bit more skeptical of (although I don't deny this happens). But this is a side issue. Most of the concensus continues to be what I believe in: Don't push it. It's natural. Maybe you "realized you had this" so it killed it. etc. etc. I'm curious if there is a next step in the process. Rogue Trader's "celebrate it's depature", has been the most interesting answer as by doing so, maybe it relieves this pressure of "feeling like I lost it". Then cyclically it comes back later. All the best, Chris
....."but believing" Therein lies the conflict. You became familiar with a feeling. A feeling that became comfortable and easy to be with. You even went as far to personalize this feeling and give it a name. You called it intuition. It now became part of who you are, and you embraced it. Unknown to you, though, it crept into and help define your ego. Now that intuition has been misplaced, the ego searches and feels abandoned. Try this. Take intuition back. It sounds like you like owning it anyway, so why fight it. It is yours for the taking so feel free. Just change the time frame you allow intuition to stay. Think of intuition as you would your last trade. If you are only as disciplined as your last "trade", and if the outcome of your last "trade" (past) influences your next "trade" (present), you are still trading your last "trade" and not trading in the moment. Now go ahead and substitute "intuition" for "trade" in the above. Enter a short term trader with conditioned beliefs from long term intuitions. If you want an answer in a box, here it is: "Let the market light the candles, just know when to blow them out." This is all the intuition you will ever need.
While mechanical trade setups are very useful a discretionary trader takes in more things than can ever be put into a system. There are times when a long setup is there but you are aware the banks weakness may be overcoming the sox strength. You may be aware that peoples fear of the enron accounting problems may also be affecting IBM and other S&P 500 stocks and they usually drag the market around. I believe intuition may be virtually equal to experience and there are times to let intuition overtake mechanical trading for an active trader. When experience works you can go days -weeks - months without a losing day. Not many mechanical systems can say the same. When experience/ intuition is are not working then you fall back on mechanical setups.
I concur..and it's exactly what I've done jem. RogueTrader..hope to see you posting more often..your realism has merit in your posts. Thanks for sharing thoughts thus far. Chris