Trading Intuition is often a topic that I devote a little time for discussion to other traders when I speak with them about where they are in their trading careers. These traders range from the newest of newbies to the traders that I respect and continue to learn from. Intuition as I look at it is basically getting that "gut feel" that demands some response without really knowing why. It can be in any time frame. Over the past several months I've lost what I feel to be the same intuition that I had in the 2000 and 2001 time period. I think it began right around mid-September (not really knowing how tangible it can be, it's hard to describe when I "lost" it). I guess I'm curious to hear from other traders that have had enough experience to warrant real "intuition" that may have also lost it or even more beneficial, how they've adjusted over the past few months to keep it. I'm not really trying to assign blame, but rather look for possible changes that might have affected this loss. I don't think "the market changed" is really what I'm after as my time period for trading is somewhat smaller and I can pretty much find opportunties each trading day. I'm looking instead for something along the lines of "what has changed in the process" as my experience from before, isn't producing the intuitive impulses from time to time on the same degree as it did over the past couple years. I don't wish to debate intuition as I realize some think it's crap. Rather, some ideas on where these impulses might have been masked are what I'm after. I don't try to push this impulse as I know it's a natural thing. I just don't find myself getting as many impulses in the last few months and maybe someone has some ideas. Anyone with clinical information or traders with experience in cyclical intuitive impulses (much like win clusters or drawdown periods) I would love to hear from. Thanks in advance, Chris
Hey Chris; I depend on intuition for at least half of my trades. I started as a local in the bond pit and developing feel for the next turn was my most valuable edge. What I've discovered lately is that many times when I don't intuitevly recognize something happening in the market it's indicitive of sideways trading behavior. In other words if the balance is'nt out of tilt then there is nothing to set off
Good point on sideways behavior. I'm primarily a trend guy..buy high, sell higher, vice versa low side...however, I've traded in sideways markets before without much feeling like this intuitive state was diminished. Maybe the fact I'm recognizing that this intuitive state is in some diminished period, I'm actually hindering it indirectly i.e., thinking about it too much is not allowing it to become natural. I'm just talking out loud..brainstorming if you will.
Further; in terms of streakiness, winning breeds confidence that breeds winning until it begins to breed boredom and then cockiness which breeds blowing out. Most of my worst days have come on the heel of a long winning streak. Sports is the best analogy, how can a pitcher throw a 2 hitter and then not last past the third inning his next start. When a trader with a poor emotional yet creative makeup(that's me) is winning he thinks this can't last forever, no-one is this good I must yet fail. The great traders or Tiger Woods believe each set-up is completely independent of the last and that if their edge or skill is tremendous than the odds FAVOR a string of successes. Keep in mind a symptom of slumping. The surer you are about direction, the more with the crowd you are and thus the most vulnerable to the big move against you. Search deep into your subconscious for that counter intuitive feeling and then go with the flow.
What you say I agree with. In fact, I've described many times my drawdown periods due to several different reasons including a nice win cluster. But I guess overall, my trading hasn't diminished..it stays in a consistent win/loss - profit/loss range with obvious win and loss clusters. What has changed though, and what I'm pretty interested in for thoughts or possible reasons, is that my intuitive impulses have not been as "plenty" as they have throughout the last couple years. Mechanical setups do this or that, but there were plenty of trades like you discuss as "1/2 come from intuition" that I was doing throughout last couple years simply from this "hand presses the button before my brain realizes what I just did" that I don't find myself doing as much. It's an interesting "loss" of aspect from my overall trading plan.
Chris, First off, nice to see you one the boards Second, thanks for starting a great topic... In my experience, "real" intuition has only come to me when I was able to achieve a natural state of mind (what others may refer to as "the zone", Midas Touch, Zen Mind, Emptiness, etc. etc.) I enter into this state spontaneously only when I am completely immersed in the present moment, completely void of all conscious thought, labels, concepts, memories, expectations, etc... It comes only when I have achieved a state of emptiness, or in other words when i "lose" myself... It is an incredible feeling when you get there, but the problem is that you immediately become conscious of it and throw yourself out of the very process that got you there in the first place... The state is natural, it is beyond "you" and it is imperitive that you grasp that you cant will yourself into the state... The very act of you seeking it makes it unnatural and takes you further away... It is like the eye that can see BUT not see itself ... The sword that can cut BUT not cut itself... You cannot will yourself to the state... And imo TRUE intuition can only come once "you" can lose "yourself"... The more you try and think about the further it will get, TRUST ME... Good Luck on your journey, Commisso
so by in fact looking for possible "procedural" issues that could mask my intuitive pulses, I actually self-hinder the whole natural process in general. You feel that at some point, this intuitive feeling will "just begin to flow when it is ready" to again? It is just strange overall as I was very skeptical of this intuitive idea until I began to learn to trust it..having it part of my overall plan for the last couple years, then recently feeling as I've lost it, has thrown me a bit out of sorts. You get so "used to it" that when you no longer have it, it makes your trading feel a bit more unnatural altogether. I agree not to push it, but I wonder "where it went"..what would I have done to "lose it"..if this makes sense. I guess I should clarify, it's not "gone", just not as frequent as I was used to.
I assure you that it has and always will be in the place it has always been and always will be Ask yourself whether you are in the same place??? Do you think the room may have anything to do with it... Maybe outside duties are causing you to not be in the smae state you were in when you "had" it... Maybe the very fact that you became so conscious of having it made it "go away"??? and now you have become conscious of "losing" and are seeking it which is pushing it further away still... IMO I could never get there with your duties... I mean sometimes im just staring at the screen, in pretty much an unconscious state and i get that sudden intuition and my hand just goes over and does the right thing, without me ever even acknowledging it... If I had to do what you do it would completely throw me out of the whole process altogether... PEACE and good trading, Commisso
It could be an addition to my overall trading day, but I've never really felt "overwhelmed" by it all. My focus on stock action hasn't been as clouded or distracting..I don't mean to sound resisting to these ideas, they are probably pretty valid, it's just interesting that something so natural to one's trading plan after a period of some certain evolution, can cease to exist for some "unknown" or maybe worse yet, some unaccepted reason. (or group of reasons). Maybe it's just zenish enough to say "it's gone for now, deal with it" and continue with what you do, creating a new set of experiences that it can be reborn again.
Why I think Pabst first post may have said it all I wonder if perhaps your intuition about the trade simply does not pay off with the big pops like it did in the past. I have had to completely change my expectations. I am now satisfied with making less per trade and less per day and I am noticing my intuition working again. At first I was actually suprised to see the trades working in my favor and now I feel I am in the market again. I just had to stop getting ticked off that I wasn't ringing the cash register so loudly when my intuition paid off. Your intuition may still be there but now it is only good for 25% of what it was good for. Plus twice today I put out offers to make 20 cents on a trade and trades went off at 19 cents and I had to take 5 cents total. Until recently I could have let those trade turn into losing trades. Now I just say so what, I no longer can make what I used to make but this is better than my old job.