SPY preview for Week of 6/1/2020, Week 1 of option expiry for June 2020, on Fri 6/5. NFP on Fri 6/5. US China tensions increasing, both sides pressing issues. US states trying to open things up in a safe manner. Still uncertain how bad or long the economic effects of the virus will be. VIX coming off highs but wonky VIX term structure curve still a caution for the markets. Options pricing +/-$7.50 move, +/-2.50%, last Fri close 304.32, possible range of 297 to 312 for this week. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 297/302 and under 307. Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators mixed but leaning to a positive direction push. 292 is 21ma level, 315 is a resistance level. HA daily candles for last week all green, might be a positive. Setting a SPY target of 308.
SPY preview for Week of 6/8/20, Week 2 of option expiry for June 2020, on Fri 6/12. Pit bull lo week, could expect a dip on thu. FOMC mtg on tue/wed, Powell talk on Wed. US China tensions increasing, both sides pressing issues. US states trying to open things up in a safe manner. Still uncertain how bad or long the economic effects of the virus will be. FED actions and fiscal stimulus provide support for the market. VIX coming off highs but wonky VIX term structure curve still a caution for the markets. Options pricing +/-$7.00 move, +/-2.00%, last Fri close 319.34, possible range of 312.50 to 326.50 for this week. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 300 and under 320. Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators mixed but mainly overbought, leading to downward pressure. 298 is 21ma level, 320 is a resistance level. HA daily candles at 9 green, caution, getting extended. Setting a SPY target of 320.
SPY preview for Week of 6/15/20, Week 3 of option expiry for June 2020, on Fri 6/19. Monthly expiry and quad witch. Also end of qtr window dressing could be starting. Powell testimony on tue/wed to congress for mid year review. Also additional Fed info releases and talkers during the week. ECB also releasing info. FED and fiscal actions are supports for markets. Tensions growing ahead of the Nov election. Talk of virus second wave. VIX spiked last week and VIX term structure curve still a caution for the markets. Options pricing +/-$12.00 move, +/-4.00%, last Fri close 304.21, possible range of 292 to 316 for this week. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 295/300 and under 320. Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators mixed but mainly point to upside pressure. 304 is 21ma level, 320 is a resistance level. HA daily candles G, G, G. R, R, pulled back from extended. Setting a SPY target of 317.
update on the vol switch trade, last post was May, 9th. for vol switch trade following positions are used, for vol short use ZIV or SVXY, or TQQQ for vol long use cash, VXX, or TVIX, or SQQQ on 2/24/20 the trade signal went long vol. the signal is still long vol, and holding cash is the position. VIX term structure curve very wonky, this is a caution, so we hold cash.
SPY preview for Week of 6/22/20, 4th and final week of option expiry for June 2020, on Fri 6/26. Also end of qtr window dressing going on, RUT rebal, and funds rebal stocks to bonds. FED, fiscal acts supports for markets. Tensions ahead of Nov election. Virus second wave?. AAPL WWDC. VIX bounce around last week, some VIX tells point up for VIX. VIX term curve still a caution for the markets. Options pricing +/-$10.50 move, +/-3.40%, last Fri close 308.64, possible range of 298 to 319 for this week. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 300/304 and under 315/320. Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators mainly point to downside pressure. 307 is 21ma level, 320 is a resistance level. HA daily candles R, G, G. R, R, pulled back from extended. Setting a SPY target of 309.
SPY preview for Week of 6/29/20, 1st week of option expiry for JULY 2020, on THU 7/2. Markets closed on Fri 7/3, for July 4TH holiday. NFP on Thu 7/2. Also end of qtr window dressing going on, and RUT rebalancing. Powell testify, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, House Financial Services Committee, Tue 6/3. FOMC last meeting minutes released on Wed. FED acts supports for markets, fiscal stim seems on hold as tensions rise ahead of Nov election. Virus second wave?. VIX bounce around last week, some VIX tells point up for VIX. VIX term curve still a caution for the markets. Options pricing +/-$9.60 move, +/-3.20%, last Fri close 300.05, possible range of 290 to 309 for this week. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 290/300 and under 312. Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators mainly point to downside pressure. 309 is 21ma level, 320 is a resistance level. HA daily candles R, G, R, R, R, pulled back from extended. Setting a SPY target of 295.
SPY preview for Week of 7/6/20, 2nd week of option expiry for JULY 2020, on Fri 7/10. FED acts supports for markets, fiscal stim seems on hold as tensions rise ahead of Nov election. Virus still cocern. VIX drifted down last week. VIX t/a tells which i take with grain of salt, indicate VIX could move up, putting pressure for stocks to move lower. VIX term curve moving to a positive push for the markets. So, a mixed picture here. Options pricing +/-$7.20 move, +/-2.30%, last Fri close 312.23, possible range of 305 to 319.50 for this week. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 300/310 and under 320. Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators mainly point to weak upside pressure. 310 is 21ma level, 320 is a resistance level. HA daily candles R, G, G, G, steady climb, with MACD nearing a positive signal. Setting a SPY target of 312/316.
SPY preview for Week of 7/13/20, 3rd week of option expiry for JULY 2020, on Fri 7/17, also monthly expiry. FED acts supports for markets, fiscal stim seems on hold as tensions rise ahead of Nov election. Virus still concern. VIX was bouncy last week, but finished just slightly lower. VIX t/a tells which i take with grain of salt, indicate VIX could put in a similar week, which would give markets room to move up. VIX term curve pointing to a positive push for the markets. Options pricing +/-$6.50 move, +/-2.10%, last Fri close 317.59, possible range of 311 to 324 for this week. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 305/310 and under 320/325. Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators mainly point to upside pressure. 309.50 is 21ma level, 320 is a resistance level. HA daily candles G, G, G, G, G, steady climb, with MACD turning positive. Setting a SPY target of 318/322.
SPY preview for Week of 7/20/20, 4th week of option expiry for JULY 2020, on Fri 7/24, the week after monthly expiry. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights going on as tensions rise ahead of Nov election. Virus still major cocern. Earnings in focus next week MSFT, TSLA, IBM, KO, FCX, SLB, INTC, T, VZ, CMG, TWTR. VIX was bouncy last week, but finished lower. VIX t/a tells, which i take with grain of salt, indicate VIX could climb up this week, which would pressure markets, but VIX could lean to down side. VIX term curve pointing to a positive push for the markets. Options pricing +/-$6.70 move, +/-2.10%, last Fri close 321.76, possible range of 315 to 328.5 for this week. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 304/310 and under 325/330. Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators are a mixed picture, could press either way. 313 is 21ma level, 318 is 8ma, 320 resistance level broken thru, but still resistance. HA daily candles G, R, G, G, G, with MACD turning positive. With both the VIX and near term T/A showing possibilties of going in either direction, SPY could see downside to 312. Setting a SPY target of 318/322. (312 as a possibility)
SPY preview for Week of 7/27/20, 5th and final week of option expiry for JULY 2020, on Fri 7/31. FOMC meeting Tue/Wed with statement and press conference on Wed, 7/29. House investigates AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOGL, on Wed. Dr Fauci, Fri 7/31 will testify to a House subcommittee on the federal response to the virus. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights going on as tensions rise ahead of Nov election. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major cocern. House's tech antitrust hearing reset for Wed. Earnings in focus next week, AAPL, ABBV, AMZN, AMD, GM, FB, UPS, GOOGL, GILD, MRK, XOM, CVX. VIX was bouncy last week, but finished slightly higher. VIX t/a tells, which i take with grain of salt, indicate VIX could climb up this week, which would pressure markets. On the opposite side, VIX term curve pointing to a positive push for the markets. Options pricing +/-$7.00 move, +/-2.20%, last Fri close 320.88, possible range of 314 to 328 for this week. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 310/315 and under 325/330. Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators are mainly bearish. 316 is 21ma level, 323 is 8ma, 320 resistance level broken thru, but still resistance. HA daily candles last week, G, G, G, R, R, with MACD turning bearish. With both the VIX and near term T/A pointing to the downside, SPY likely to move lower. Setting a SPY target of 317. (target for last week was 318/322, close was 320.88)