SPY closed higher at 266.46, from 258.98, so the lower direction target of 257 was not hit. the move was +7.48, higher than the 4.40 expected from the option MMM. no trade was made.
For the SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 1/21/2019, wk4 of Q1, 2019 4th week of option expiry for January, Fri 25th. Monday market closed for MLK holiday, so 4 day week. Earnings ongoing, Davos starts Tue, ongoing gov shut down, China trade talks. VIX is back to contango. Outlook has stochastics and the extended weekly green candles showing possible for downside movement, other indicators showing still more room to run. See the week not having much movement. Going with a SPY target of 267. Options pricing +/-$3.80 possible move, last Fri close was $266.46. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 260 and under 270, As the base line goal for the trade is enter Mon, out Tue, with market closed Mon, see how Tue plays out to see if we can get a trade.
For the SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 1/28/2019, wk5 of Q1, 2019 1st week of option expiry for Feb, Fri 1st. Earnings ongoing, Fed meeting Tue, Wed, rate increase not expected, hope for clarification on QT. NFP Fri, China trade talks. Gov on 3wk temp back to work, with talks for border security, VIX is back to contango. VXX ends on Jan 30 and some holders are slow to move over to VXXB, could be a problem. SPY chart outlook has stochastics showing possible downside movement, other indicators showing still more room to run. See the week not having much movement. Going with a SPY target of 267. Options pricing +/-$4.40 possible move, last Fri close was $265.78. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 262 and under 270.
For the SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 2/4/2019, wk6 of Q1, 2019 2nd week of option expiry for Feb, Fri 8th, pit bull week Earnings ongoing, China New Year Tue, Powell talk Wed, China trade talks, Gov on 3wk temp back to work, with talks for border security (Feb 15th deadline), VIX is back to contango. SPY chart outlook has stochastics showing possible downside movement, other indicators showing still more room to run. See the week not having much movement. Going with a SPY target of 271. Options pricing +/-$3.65 possible move, last Fri close was $270.06. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 265 and under 274. China new year Feb 5, year of the pig, interesting item marketgauge.com/resources/mishs-daily/get-ready-for-the-year-of-the-pig
plan for SPY BPS (see Mar 10 2016) look for a support level and place the BPS below it. use BB as the main T/A study. look for a dime, or a nickel credit on a dollar. Spreads $1 or $2 wide, also consider $3 or up to $5. Still evaluating. trade front month and enter wk after OPX wk, or any time after. plan allows for additional entries of the same spread or a different one. exit if gain 50% of credit, or plan to exit OPX wk, usually by Tue. dont plan to hold to expiry. loss exit, get out if the spread goes over 2X the original price (original credit). no adjustments, simple plan going in, if things go bad, get out and plan next trade.
For the SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 2/11/2019, wk7 of Q1, 2019 3rd week of option expiry for Feb, Fri 15th, monthly expiry Earnings ongoing, Gov on 3wk temp back to work, with talks for border security (Feb 15th deadline), Mar 1st is a dead line for Gov debt limit, China trade talks still on, VIX is still in contango. SPY chart outlook has stochastics showing possible downside movement, see support at 267 and resistance at 272. Going with a SPY target of 271. Options pricing +/-$3.77 possible move, last Fri close was $270.47. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 265 and under 276.
For the SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 2/18/2019, wk8 of Q1, 2019. Markets closed Mon 2/18 for Presidents Day Holiday. 4th week of option expiry for Feb, Fri 22nd, week after monthly expiry. Wed 2/20 Fed minutes from last meeting, Thu 2/21 ECB meeting, FED talkers end of week. Earnings ongoing, Gov shut down averted, emergency declared for border security, opposition to fight. Mar 1st is a dead line for Gov debt limit, China trade talks still on, VIX is still in contango. SPY broke out to upside last week with increasing volume. Upside strength could continue into the new week. see support at 272 and resistance at 282. Going with a SPY target of 279. Options pricing +/-$3.16 possible move, last Fri close was $277.39. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 269 and under 282.
For the SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 2/25/2019, wk9 of Q1, 2019. 1st week of option expiry for Mar, Fri 1st. Tue 2/26 and Wed 2/27 Fed Powell talks to House and Senate, also talking Thu 2/28. Earnings ongoing, emergency declared for border security, opposition is fighting. Mar 1st is a dead line for Gov debt limit, China trade talks still on, VIX is still in contango. (NFP will be next Fri 3/8) SPY ended to the upside last week with decent volume. Upside strength could continue into the new week, but strong resistance from prior highs is overhead. see support at 272 and resistance at 293. Going with a SPY target of 281. Options pricing +/-$3.10 possible move, last Fri close was $279.14. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 277 and under 285.
For the SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 3/04/2019, wk10 of Q1, 2019. 2nd week of option expiry for Mar, Fri 8th, pit bull low week. NFP data to be released on Fri 8th. Earnings ongoing, emergency declared for border security, opposition is fighting. Mar 1st was dead line for Gov debt limit?, China trade talks still on, VIX is still in contango. SPY danced around a little last week, but ended pretty flat, with fair volume. Fridays candle was a DOJI, indicates uncertainty, but the higher volume usually not good for the bulls. Going forward, see more of a chance for downside pressure, but the bulls could still run here. Strong resistance from prior highs is overhead. see support at 272 and resistance at 293. Going with a SPY target of 282. Options pricing +/-$2.92 possible move, last Fri close was $280.42. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 277 and under 285.
For the SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 3/11/2019, wk11 of Q1, 2019. 3rd week of option expiry for Mar, Fri 15th, monthly expiry, quad witch. Powell talking Sunday night and Monday, SPY is ex div on Friday. Earnings winding down, emergency declared for border, opposition is fighting, No/Ko may launch rockets. Mar 1st was dead line for Gov debt limit?, China trade talks still on, VIX is still in contango. IBD Top 50 List, of interest, adds, FAST, delets, ADBE, SQ, VMW SPY closed down for the week, but ended with a green candle for the day on Friday, with fair volume. Going forward, momentum indicators show possible short term move to the upside. Resistance from prior highs is overhead. See support at 272 and resistance at 282. Going with a SPY target of 277. Options pricing +/-$4.35 possible move, last Fri close was $274.46. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 275 and under 280.