preview for Week of 6/4, for SPY weekly trade For earnings, big players all reported, still have a few interesting companies left, PANW. AAPL conference WWDC, starting, usually puts downside pressure on the stock, 2nd week of option expiry for June, Pit Bull Low week, week before monthly expiry, for the week after, tue, wed, 6/12, 6/13, Fed live meeting, with Q/A, rate hike expected. My outlok for the market is for the downside, have a SPY target of 271. Options pricing +/-$2.80 move, ballparks my target, given last Fri close of$273.60. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY under 274. Also see the VIX moving higher, target 16.50, last Fri close was 13.46. Monday will be watching 8june SPY puts, strike 272, or 270, for posible trade
update on the vol switch trade which is either in cash or ZIV, went to 5 shares ZIV on April 12, 5x $63.23, $316.15 total, still holding ZIV, 6/4 close at $75.88, $379.40 total. vol trades can result in a big loss, that is why i am trading small, to work out a plan, and then go bigger if i have some confidence.
preview for Week of 6/11, For earnings, big players have all reported, ADBE reports Thu. after market close. Earnings start again in July in 3 weeks. 3rd week of option expiry for June, Fri 15th, monthly expiry and triple witch. for the week, tue, wed, 6/12, 6/13, Fed live meeting, with Q/A, rate hike expected. Fed rate hikes and balance sheet unloads have been pressuring emerging markets. ECB has a meeting also. They are not yet on same page with the Fed. SPY ETF dividend this week. My outlook for the market is for the upside, have a SPY target of 279. Options pricing +/-$3.50 possible move, last Fri close was $278.19. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY under 279. Also roll week for the VIX futures contracts, last Fri VIX close was 12.18. Monday will be watching 15june SPY calls, for posible trade.
revision for SPY targets in previous post, had to rush my last post because i was having computer issues and made a mistake in my calculation for SPY next week, although i do see a move up that could go to 279/280, i think we then move lower, target 275, so i will be looking for a put position. this outlook matches up more with what the option activity is showing.
preview for Week of 6/25, and SPY outlook For earnings, big players all reported, still have CCL, LEN, BBBY, PAYX, KBH, NKE, WBA, STZ. Earnings start again in July in 1 week. 5th and last week of option expiry for June, Fri 29th, and some end of month expiry. for the week, window dressing, rebalancing and final bank stress test results. Fed rate hikes and balance sheet unloads still pressuring emerging markets. trade war issues, and build up to mid term US elections also provide drama. Last week R/OPEC mtg, with agreement for small increase sent oil up, lot of opposing views on where oil price goes. week after is 1st wk of July, 4th July holiday on Wed, and NFP on Fri. technical outlook for SPY is for limited movement, target of 274/275. Options pricing +/-$3.00 possible move, last Fri close was $274.74. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY under 275. VIX term structure is in contango, last Fri VIX close was 13.77.
cmlviz has info on some e/r trades they post for free, i got MSFT 105c at .99 on 7/12, 8 calendar days before e/r target sell is day before the e/r on 7/19. closed today 7/17 at 1.67
cmlviz pre earnings trade on AAPL, 7/23, bto 27jul, 190 call, $1.60, 7/26, stc @ $5.20 AAPL was about $190 when entered trade.
SPY weekly option trade SPY wkly 290 put, in yesterday 9/4, closed this morning, 5 lot, $235 gain, $690 trade size. small trade, try to keep size around $500, look to limit loss to 50%, close by thurs or sooner if show profit.
September look ahead week 1 of option expiry for the month, always seems a little wonky to me fed talkers ahead of the meeting for Sep 9/11 rememberence AAPL WWDC 9/12 reverse splits for UVXY, SVXY 9/18 quad witch for Sep option expiry, 9/21 Fed likely to raise rates, 9/26 SPX sectors restructuring 9/28, ETFs will have changes in their holdings