gold miners, GDX, may be hitting pay dirt...... http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p74366524346
lets try the link one more time... http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ:$VXN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p64690963963 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ:$VXN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p64690963963
longer ma (red) above the shorter ma (blue), system signal is long TLT.... http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY:TLT&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06939875656
i did some reverse engineering of a promo-teaser email i got awhile back, few details were given but i managed to figure out the following: the stock was AAPL and the trade was put on in mar at a pps of about $600. the position was a 450/480 bull call debit spread using the apr options, bto apr 450 call, and sto apr 480 call, for a $27 debit. the position was about 20% ITM. at apr opx the trade was closed for its max value of $30, AAPL @ about $573, for a return of 11% for the month. going forward i looked at the next months spread, on mon apr 23, (pps@ $571) an AAPL may 470/500 bull call debit spread was going for about $25, return about 20% if AAPL stays above $500 going into opx. (about 12% ITM) AAPL did get down to about $530 at opx.
i was on a webinar from john ondercin. it was informative. here are a few hi-lites, as i interpreted them. diversify your trades by sector, strategy, and time. get good at three option strategies, and only three. any more takes away from your focus. start with one strat until you get it down cold and then move to the next. he recommends these three strats, collars vertical credit spreads calendar spreads he also likes LEAPS for straight puts or calls straddles? NO, hard to beat the vig you fight going in and out. debit spreads? NO, time decay works against you.
i was on a webinar with aj brown talking about trading long straddles. here are some hi-lites as i interpreted them. pattern recognition and pattern utilization are key, in other words know the charts and look for repeating patterns and how best to trade them. option price changes follow three important aspects price movement of underlying volatility changes movement of time straddle trading uses the following considerations bell curve of time value, centered at the ATM strike time decay curve, greater decay rate at end of option life implied volatility vs historical movement of implied vol in response to upcoming events reversion to mean of implied vol look for upcoming events enter the straddlle when things are quiet look for IV at or below historical and/or below mean use ATM puts and calls, just out in time target gains at 10-20% for exit prior to event not all will be winners
the spy-dicator doesnt normally look like this with the price so far below the option volatility weighted value.... http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY:VXZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p41914154310