My thread for trading ideas. Trades are mainly options on momentum stocks and ETFs. Trades are either BULL, BEAR, or NEUTRAL and short term, usually not longer than 6 months. stocks watch list: AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, GS ETF WATCH LIST: SPY, DIA, QQQQ, IWM PGJ, GLD, GDX, SLV UUP TLT, TBT
AA @$14.43, trade idea 12/11/09 outlook, bull to neutral time frame, about 6mo or longer strat, DITM longer term (LT) call, build a position, collect premium, reinvest in the trade t/a, (later) problemos? how will div and e/r affect the trade? e/r 11, jan protection, (later) (DITM LT call provides some risk reduction vs long stock position) exit, (?) bto jan (2011) 10C $530/540 sto jan (2010) 16c $32/34 sell jan 11/12.5 p $7/8, $22/33, ($14/136), 10%
Trade idea SPY Date: 12/21/09 Price: 111.33 Almanac: End of Yr. favorable Strategy: Bull Put Spread T/A Support: 109 Time forTrade: 4 wks BTO: JAN 104 PUT @ .47/.49 STO: JAN 106 PUT @ .67/.70 Net Credit: .18 At Risk: 1.92 (2.00-.18) Margin Gain: 9% Probability: % OTM: 4.5%
Trade review With SPY close at $114.62 today, 1/13/10, looks pretty safe to just let the trade expire on fri 15 and keep all premium. It would take a 7% drop to hit the short strike. Will add for the future almanac, "end of year AND start of new year favorable"
AA trade review The vertical jan 11/12.5p expired at $0. The way the cal spread turned out kinda confirms my thought that trades on stocks rather than ETFs are too risky. Especially around earnings, which was on 1/11. AA traded to a high of $17.60 on mon 1/11, and closed at $15.63 on fri 1/15, OPX. Today thu 1/28, close is $12.92, the jan 2011, $10 call is $380/395 I was looking for a stock under $20, and in some resource related area to build a longer term position in, using a DITM option in place of the stock. I think for now I will concentrate on the vertical spreads on ETFs.
trade review sat jan 30 trade did expire at $0, SPY $110.21 also an error in the "At Risk", 1.82, not 1.92 Margin Gain 10%
TRADE IDEA USO Date: 2/12/10 Price: 36.31 Almanac: favorable Strategy: Bull Put Spread T/A Support: 34 T/A: rsi 21, macd 12 26 9 Near term target: 40 Time forTrade: 5 wks BTO: MAR 30 PUT @ 15/16 STO: MAR 33 PUT @ 44/47 Net Credit: .29 At Risk: 2.71 Margin Gain: 10% Probability: (approx) 90% % OTM: 3.3% Volatilty: OVX @ 36.04
re USO trade idea with the long holiday week end and todays rally, a lot of steam has come out of the proposed BPS MAR 30/33 P. went from .29 to .17, USO @ $37.70 if put on now, trade would be a 6% ROM, approx 94% prob, still looks interesting, not as good as last Fri!
re USO trade idea USO had a good week, Fri 19 eod $39.09. Move was too quick to get on board with the BPS MAR 30/33 P. Went from .39 on Fri 12, to .07 on Fri 19.
trade idea Mon 22 SPY eod $111.16 BPS Mar 102/105P @ .25/2.75, 9%rom short strike 5% OTM t/a support, 106