Sure...what I am trying to do is to put "rubber to the road" and actually enter trades from pre-opening price and stock picks. I will also attempt to monitor IM's to add to the picks during the day. I will take the $$ risk for this, and do my best to keep an objective journal. I have been "testing the test" with a couple of folks so far, just to be sure the methodology is somewhat sound. Just send private email before 8:30 AM (NY) to dontest@stocktrading.com and / or IM to "donbright(@aol)" during the day. Please include stops and exits if applicable. I will try to see what is working and what may not be working. I will give everyone a chance to review results and make comments or suggestions. At some point, with everyones permission, I will make the data available on the board and perhaps in the magazine (TASC). I can't really get involved with monitoring a system (like SL4 and others) for this test, I need specifics from those out there who generate these things. I would also like suggestions for other participants, with their email addresses, and I will invite them to join. Please feel free to send a copy of this post to anyone.
Mr. Chartwhiz,good read on the weekly charts,sideways slop......Mr.Pejman ,downtrend guess actually helped me take losses a bit sooner,someprofits sooner rather than try for a mountain lion size size swingtrade....... Pejman,you wanted a bullish guess,,ok Iam bullish on 50 day moving averages,5 minute candlecharts,numbers on NASDAQ,,,NYSE ,,most any screens you look on have daytrade bullish buys.......NYSE Argentina telephone stocks been bullish lately,volume a bit low for me......Cnbc-Wallstreet Journal did report more short interest,,,but like Art Cashin {like his name] usually says it helps fuel the rally........ Pejman Iam glad that my,your guess of terror on Pearl Harbor,,Christmas never did show up on the numbers or charts.....Stock Traders Almanac,bullish every day this week,,much of Nasdaq,November-March......Mr. Hirsch warns be more humble when the market goes your way................................................................................
one piece of advice from an old veteran (NOT!) : There was this Croatian TV show about business, that said : "Japan is in recession, USA is in recession, Germany is in recession... now is not the time to own the stocks so sell all you got". Hrmmm................ My guess is that we are ready for a move up!!! Alex
NAS is above the 200D MA for the first time in 15 mo.. If I was a long term investor I would take that as a bullish sign.
Here is the position I took for the next year. I don't mind sharing it with you, but keep in mind that this is an investment and not a trade. I have been sitting in cash for a long while (since Sep 2000), and I have watched my returns diminish with every interest rate cut. But, I did not rush to buy bonds or lock my money in CDs, because I was waiting for a good opportunity. I have entertained potential investment ideas for a while, and I finally decided to act on one of them. The play is as so: Buy: SEBL stock and sell SEBL Jan03 $30.00 calls for a net debit of $19.90. With the stock trading at 28.00, and the option at 8.10 by 8.40 it is very possible to get a fill. You might even be able to get it for 19.70. The lowest I have seen it was 19.40 (option bid 7.50 SEBL stock at 26.90 last week). For the sake of simplicity, I will use 20.00 as an entry. This should include commissions etc. If SEBL is at 30+ (40,50,80,180, it does not matter) you will get 30.00 a share in January 2003. Your cost is 20, so you made 50% in one year. Your break even is 20.00, so SEBL can go down 8 points or close to 30% in one year and you will break even. Anything over 20.00 a share and you make money. Now, SEBL trades at PE 54, so it could be overpriced. This is risky, but I think the reward is worth the risk. I was comparing this trade with potentially doing the same on QQQ. Buy QQQ and sell QQQ Jan03 $40.00 calls, but the maximum returns are 19.7% VS 50% on SEBL and the Break Even only allows a 16.5% decline. Sure this is a more diversified position, but I like the rewards/risks associated with SEBL. Yes, another way to play this is to simply sell the naked January03 $30.00 puts for $9.20, but the break even will be 20.80 in this case. So, I decided on the covered calls and I am long 33,000 shares of SEBL and short 328 Jan03 contracts (did not get a fill on 2 of them, damn). Now, you can be more aggressive (selling higher strike) or conservative (selling lower strike). The year time frame has a tax break benefit I want to wish you all a very happy New Year! I am leaving to Las Vegas (will be watching the bowl games and betting the parlay and teaser cards with Jodi. Gonna see the Intel dudes - blue men, and eating before that diet starts ... the same diet every year. I will be back on the boards in the end of January to discuss trading. I will see you then ***** HAPPY NEW YEAR ***** ***** HAPPY NEW YEAR ***** ***** HAPPY NEW YEAR ***** ***** HAPPY NEW YEAR ***** ***** HAPPY NEW YEAR ***** ***** HAPPY NEW YEAR ***** ***** HAPPY NEW YEAR ***** ***** HAPPY NEW YEAR ***** ***** HAPPY NEW YEAR *****
Position Screen Shot. The daily P&L is meanigless at this point. There is more than a year to go on this one
Reached 20% net short by close yesterday. Today laid out some hedges to bring my exposure to neutral. The plan going forward for me is a release of the short side of the hand on a move above 1982 in the Nas with strong volume. This will put me net long 20%. A move above 1995, will go to 50% net long, with target of 2050-2055. A high above recent high will move further long and will target 2200 zone.
chartwiz, Registered multiple short-term buy signals on Thursday's data runs. I appreciate your persistence to argue. It did keep me a bit more cautious until I had further confirmations. Additionally, it prevented the slightest bit of hesitation when locking my risk down when it didn't feel right. My short-terms have now given multiple buys and I look for 1980's tape action. But I am only comfortable riding to 2055 for now and then seeing how the numbers look. Pej.
To give you an example of what my "short-term" time frame is, I've attached a chart of the nas... The critical element reversing my short-term signals was the rising volume on Thursday. That was enough to allow me to conclude my initial perspective was flawed. I am not yet convinced here on the longer term , but I will go with the move in the meantime. Keep the opinions flowing please, chartwiz et. all. You helped me turn a rout into an easy reversal.