Trading Ideas/Potential Trades

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Pejman Hamidi, Dec 18, 2001.

  1. neo_hr


    Hello fellas,

    Brandon - I like yer VRTS pick, daily formed a lot of dojis in the last couple of days - a LOT of indecision - and yesterday was a hanging man:confused: on somewhat rising vol, could mean a reversal... Yeah, weekly @ R

    Lets see how I did yesterday :

    CELG - woulda triggered my stop but its still a bearflag in my eyes

    LNCR - WOW! Stochs overbought, looow vol, price bouncing into 40MA, lotsa upper tails (I read somewherer thats where pro-money's at)...odds would say DOWN

    PAYX - ummm...yes... "bounced off 18 MA, didnt sell off"... it sure didnt if you DONT think 2pt gap open isnt a selloff. OK, I missed some important news on this one so this is what the selloffs about right?!:cool: BTW, Brandon, your theory about holding when this kinda gap happens worked this time eh?!

    TQNT - yes, a bottom fisher...3 pt gap down ... BUY this one guys , Its going up for sure... my uncle told me...seriously, this one met Bottom Fisher criteria but gapped down on the open so I dumped it

    ARTI - a nice bullflag pullback, the stoch also offered a dip below 80 entry... I actuallly made some money on this one but I wouldnt like to talk about it. Guess my 20-50 lots cant compare to '000s ...

    MGAM - still pulling back to 20SMA. Im sure itll have another retest of the 40 highs but will it break thats another question. Seems to me like its loosing steam

    BPRX - was an extreme BB piercing, it offered a nice countertrend play yesterday.Im a chicken sou I would have probably played it only as a daytrade although I should stick with it. My projection is a pullbact to 20 SMA or somewhere near

    CMLS - it DID close higher yesterday but on 25% vol it had the day before when I called it a spike blowoff. Weekly also looks like a spike into upper BB. Im calling shorts here, anyone?!

    MCAF - this one also pulled another up close but I think some pause is in order ADX still very high, stoch overbought for a couple of days... wouldnt touch it for now

    SLAB - now, theres a real blowoff and a looong tail. This one could have been a low risk entry yesterday with a stop above open(highO.D.) as if it takes that high it would suggest another test of this monster of an upper tail.

    Well, join us tomorrow same time same channel and... This isnt meant to be an investment recommendation, only educational. If you loose your shirt - its your own fault. If ya follow my lead... well... its gonna be a hell of a ride, eh?!

    #31     Dec 20, 2001
  2. neo_hr


    I just forgot to say that I AM NOT QUALIFIED TP RECOMMEND ANY PICKS AND THAT i am still a ROOKIE trader so... take my picks only as a learning tool or whatever.

    #32     Dec 20, 2001
  3. Hello, this is Barry, hows it going??

    Met you in Newport this summer. Im very new to this site as well.

    Send me an email, and lets chat.

    Grats on the book.
    #33     Dec 20, 2001
  4. Wow, this thread sure picked up fast. I'm behind on reviewing all of the recommendations, and since the market cracked today, I won't go back too far. Some nice set-ups though everyone. Thanks for sharing......this is how we rise above.....

    neo-hr pointed out the potential H&S setting up in the market. Today's crack confirmed this top on the nas and sets up on the Dow and SPX. The latter has a declining n/l with a lower low, so we could see a fast and sudden drop there. But note that the duration implied by the pattern is short-term, borderline intermediate term but highly doubtful that it extends beyond 2 weeks BASED SOLELY on this top. However, note that the uptrend had been broken to the downside during the Oct. consolidation, and although we took those highs out, the entire time, we were hugging the lower boundary of the rising channel, from the outside. So technically, it was a trend failure, but a new high set off the shorts.

    JNPR confirmed the assumptions during their prior earnings that they were "stuffing" their previous quarter at the expense of the current quarter. Their lower guidance was the nail here. A lot of the market's strength in tech was based on the optimism from JNPR, but it was smoke.

    The action in the market looks very heavy. I don't think it will be a happy x-mas. In a way, I am glad the fiscal stimulus package didn't pass. I think it would have pushed long term rates higher based on the current structure. Ideally, with all the bickering among members of congress, the economy will recover and the stimulus will become unnecessary. We'll see.

    VRTS: brandon mentioned VRTS running into resistance. The pattern you pointed out is all over the place. Numerous "2/3 retracements" have run into their pre-9/11 support levels. This is an important bearish development and plays into the contrarion short play as everyone is quite a believer these days that the "market is looking out into the future and discounting the current recession". If it was that simple, the Fed wouldn't be at 1.75% and an easing bias. Something has the potential of being SERIOUSLY wrong here and we can't be all that certain. I don't want to speculate that far out into the future. I will just trade the numbers. HOWEVER, as everyone is optimistic and "looking 8-months out" and therefore buying, where does the greatest risk lie? Obviously to the downside.

    Get those bullets ready. The next bounce to test the breakdown is the sell signal before year end. There may be a retracement in the last 2-3 days, but there should be a good, quick move to the downside after a fast retracement to the upside fuelled by some positive numbers. The employment numbers were really bad, even though they were reported as a positive in the media. I wonder what numbers they were looking at. The rate of increase has slowed for first time claims, but at this rate, the unemployment rate will break above 6.5%, which would be about 100 basis points above the highest estimates last year. Ouch.

    BRCD: aura0663 asked about BRCD. Interesting set up there. The stock registered a very high volume day on Monday after a decline for 4 days. Nice selling exhaustion. On Tuesday and Wed, volume started to decline, and the stock closed just above a triple convergence of the 50-, 100- and 200-day EMA's. The 50- and 200-day EMA's are right on top of each other, exactly at today's low. I see at least 30 - 30.35, which could be a good entry level as this stock has not put in a topping pattern so this decline is a corrective cycle. A broad bottom appears to be forming here, as in a majority of important stocks. (important = tradeable)

    CEPH: Rigel mentioned shorting CEPH. I wanted to point out one VERY important variable that you must be aware of regardless of your time horizon. CEPH has been in an uptrend since mid-98. It failed to top out when the Biotech crashed 66%, it held its lows when the Biotech's confirmed their top, and went sideways while the Biotechs fell back below their '00 lows. Obviously, any supply has been aggressively absorbed for a long time now. This is stock that is going from weaker players into stronger hands that won't put it back on the market for a long time. Additionally, the September low in this stock created a HIGHER low, in contrast to the broader market as well as its own sector cousins. It's right near its all-time highs, which shouldn't necessarily equate to a 'sell at heavy resistance'. If you want to short this stock, you may have better odds shorting a new high after the retail rush has evaporated post all-time-high-breakout. And on a NASTY day like today, the stock rallied 2 points. This stock should be on your buy list during strong markets and avoid list during weak markets unless you want to use it as a long hedge when you're net short. Clearly a good example of supply/demand analysis on this stock. Thanks for pointing it out Rigel.

    OHI: VOLUME!!!!

    neo_hr: I can't differentiate the sarcasm from the seriousness. I will keep trying. Were you serious about your uncle and TQNT? I just wanted to make sure before I sold the hell out of it. :D :p
    Seriously though, when a stock gaps down like that, after a steep decline, it does clue us into a potential reversal of trend forming, but it does not imply one has completed. An exhaustion downside gap means the downtrend is ending. The uptrend needs to form. I know many of you are looking for quick scalps, but I'm assuming you measure or at least quantify the risk of each potential trade, right :confused:

    Smikkey Trader: Hello. With apologies, I met a lot of people in Newport this Summer, if you know what I mean. It's a beach. Refresh my memory.

    Nasdaq could retrace first to 1930, but my ideal retracement for a short line is 1960. 1850 is all I expect from the H&S that set this decline off. Beyond that, we need more distribution to take place in the mid 1900's. I don't expect to see the volume this week or next. So I don't know where the sellers will come from other than the bears looking to regain some lost ground here. VIX rising but still WAY too low for any hopes of further strength beyond 2000-2050 and highly indicative of a cycle of rising volatility and accompanying falling equities TRIN bearish all day and long-term rates keep rising. Those yields are going to start attracting alot of equity $$, if they haven't already done so, and a portfolio rotation could get under way now that Argentina is toast. If this mess spreads down south into Brazil, look for a sharp drop in the Treasury yields accompanied by a sharp drop in financials and "thar she blows...."

    The Dow INDU putting in lower high at 200-day EMA, which is also equiv to left shoulder. Another top in the making, but this one indicates more distribution has taken place than in Nasdaq. So decline could be steeper out of the gate. 9775 strong support but market volume on today's reversal was VERY STRONG for a day like this. I think we're about to come unglued and fast. I think Bin Laden has a holiday surprise for the civilized world, and it's probably scheduled for Santa Claus delivery...

    I'm not going to give individual plays as I believe market risk is too high for novices and beginners here. But the aggressive folk should keep an eye on the bids in the coming days.......

    Careful out there. Argentina is sinking fast and the desperation move last week resulted in nothing more than a sudden transfer of wealth from Argentine citizens to the US private banks. Was Cavallo a puppet of the western banks after all? Everything sure suggests that. Only there to buy his friends some time to unwind their risk and transfer it to the citizens of the country. Burn baby burn... This is a good time to keep an eye on the forex battleground. Hedge funds are moving in for the kill as the smell of blood is overwhelming, and the central banks are digging in to put up a fight. Argentina will lose, Venezuala has a chance, but Brazil is the wild card. If they get defeated, Venezuala will fall and by that time, Chile will be an afterthought..... Equity risk has gone up ladies and gentlemen. Be aware of the long side and don't be timid on the short side.

    Sorry for the length, but I figured it was better than individual posts......

    Pejman Hamidi
    #34     Dec 20, 2001
  5. Pej,

    I traded at "The Street",

    We got on the roof of your condo and looked at the harbour while your cousin took pictures, then we went and ate Fish Tacos at that Beach Bar, after talking about the market and trading.

    #35     Dec 21, 2001
  6. This must be the most appropriate stock recommendation of the year. Considering Goldman blew away their estimates, are they fading their analysts in times of tight earnings?

    ho, ho, ho

    (the attached file is an excerpt from a research report I received from Goldman in October. My broker was hammering me to buy Enron at the time. I finally snapped and gave him some advice. I couldn't post entire report because elitetrader won't take pdf files)
    #36     Dec 21, 2001
  7. neo_hr


    Just thought Id draw the bottom line on my plays :

    CELG - Heeey.... I actually did well here.
    LNCR - basically getting whipsawed here
    PAYX - why on Earth isnt it selling off after this kinda gap dn??
    TQNT - dont know what to say here
    ARTI - seems as this one was the only nice play I called...what to do with it now? Leave it be?

    MGAM - starting to move sideways. So I was right about loosing steam?
    Weekly is starting to form a bullflag, man it doubled in two months...

    BPRX - I was also right on this one, pierced upper BB so a nice two day counter move
    happened. What would be to do now? Its piercing it again but on low vol :?

    CMLS - im guessing a lot of selling pressure here (last two days) two dojis on high vol...
    What does that mean? Will it clear the sellers and resume up or do we not know how many sellers
    are there? Can it turn down?

    MCAF - weekly is showing a nail in upper BB an daily a pullbask but the vol hasnt decreased.
    Could somebody offer an entry point on this one?

    SLAB - guessing I have an erroneus print since my weekly onthis one is showing
    530$ rise in a week...hrmm...Spike in to upper BB, 2 day pullback (w. a gap) and the third day
    it goes up but on half the average vol. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

    Thanx for joining us :) I hope I can get some discussion here going cos we could all learn from it

    Best regards,
    #37     Dec 22, 2001
  8. After a sharp break on Thursday, confirming a top, the index gapped higher but closed near the open. This is a classic inside day.

    If you read my previous posts, I was anticipating a quick snap-back, providing an entry oppty on the short side. Friday was just that. The test was accomplished at 1955. Now the target is 1850 in the near term. Any short positions set up near Friday's high should be covered and daytraders should consider reversing to the long side at 1850 for a rally to 1910-1916.

    From there, we will need to see how 1850 is defended by the bulls. If we can hold then we'll see a reversal to test the 1975 range. If 1850 is taken out, we will see 1835 then 1800. Look for liquidity.

    The VIX is screaming sell right now. Don't sell options. Option speculators should consider buying puts because they are relatively cheap right now with little intrinsic premium.
    #38     Dec 22, 2001
  9. I am reading these posts from the last few days.......

    Why is anybody trying to pick a direction in the markets or anticipate one in front of Triples Friday & on top of that we had 2 #;s that came out & on top of that we have Christmas.........& next week is shot...........

    personally ...I would not be caring which way the direction the markets going in & would not trust any patterns or market action until after the new year...........who is really going to commit funds to the markets here ? Markets also have a big range & Its a 50 50 shot.....I seen somebody said the markets in a head & shoulders........another said its about lets wait until after the near year to put your expertise to work, I have NO idea of the direction & am commiting 0 funds overnight to the markets from this last thursday the 20th until after new year, if you traded on friday it was a waste & the markets where thin just as xmas week until new year will be.............I suggest rather than trying to prediect the market in a sideways range......let the new year pass, 1/2 the game of making money is knowing when NOT to be in the markets.....................Chris
    #39     Dec 23, 2001
  10. Charwiz212 said...

    This market is certainly not for everyone. However, there are some professional desks that thrive during triple witching. Additionally, the macro numbers are not very difficult to correctly anticipate right now. If you can get the theme right, and position accordingly, there's money to be made, but again, this is not everyone's playground. Those that know how to play the current environment, which is tricky, can hit some big swings and "nobody's looking"....

    Then he said...
    I must disagree. The odds are much stronger for those that can understand the numbers, can think through the macro scenarios, and can position appropriately with regards to risk control.

    He continues...
    Judging by your comments, I'm sure it was a waste for you. But the beauty of this market is that someone's waste is another's gain......if you're right, it obviously wasn't a waste was it? But again, the market at this juncture is certainly not for everyone...

    I couldn't agree with you more. I tend to engage about 40% of the year. Again, opinions do vary and as strong as you may feel the market is moving sideways, there are ALOT of people that would disagree and are already positioned accordingly. If you would wait until the New Year to position, what happens if the market collapses before then? Do you miss the obvious move simply because of stereotypes and broad assumptions? A professionals job, more than anything, is to have the ability to engage when the masses are reluctant to. Then, when the masses finally get a clue, the pro's use their liquidity to exit. I love this profession!!!

    Now, as strongly as you may feel about the market, you certainly have the right not to acknowledge the research. But at the same time, there may be a few here and there that think the same, or they disagree with the positioning. If you have something to say against the position, I would LOVE to hear it. But to simply say "this is not the time to be trading or analyzing the markets, therefore your analysis is flawed" is asking far too much of the straw man, no??

    Happy Holidays.
    #40     Dec 23, 2001