AAA; I didn't feel criticized by your comments. I was responding to another individuals comments.... PH
The attached file is a daily chart of the Nasdaq. I wanted to point out the potential bull trap that may have been set last week, with a high volume reversal bar that caught everyone long. There is a good chance for a decline to 1875-1900 at the very least. However, due to extremely low VIX readings, the sell-off could be sudden and sharp. The potential short squeeze last week was prevented by the bears, who appear to be back in control of the action The 50-day MA is at 1935, so we should see some support there. The intermediate term downtrend line that was broken to the upside in early November has yet to be tested for confirmation of the breakout. Therefore, this decline could head as low as 1650, which would be extremely healthy for the benefit of further completing this major, long-term bottom we've been working on. 1650 would also result in a higher low relative to the September bottom and would also be at the same level as the March 2000 low, which gives us the final leg of a massive, inverted head & shoulders pattern. Additionally, the 200-day MA has resulted in the formation of a double top around 2065 with an implied downside target of 1890, which would also close the November gap to the upside. Be careful with any longs. As you know, I've been bearish since early December, but I will not commit more than 50% of my firepower to the short side due to the extreme risk and lack of volume. Additionally, to further control risk, I will always have a hedge profile ready to implement on short notice if necessary. At the moment, I am net short. Stay smart and focused. If we get a fast sell-off, we could be setting up for a powerful rally into February. So small traders should be sidelined and remain patient. Pejman Hamidi
This weekly chart of the Dow clearly illustrates a major 2/3 retracement has been completed, which happens to fall exactly at the primary downtrend line (upper boundary of falling channel). It looks like we're headed somewhere for 8500-8600. Many, many sell signals triggered on my proprietary models....
I don't know what the problem is. Make sure you have Adobe Reader installed. It's probably related to the Elite Trader document limitations. Instead of downloading the files from here, click on the following links and you'll download the files from a different location. For Nas: www.egoose.com/nas.pdf For Dow: www.egoose.com/dow.pdf Hope this works.... Pejman Hamidi
Probably just me...might be an activeX thing. The adobe worked fine. The naz could be forming a small h&s on the daily with right shoulder support at the trendline of 1940-50 area (and/or 50ma as you mentioned.) There's also some divergence on the rsi etc. but those wacky oscillators can crank it back up just as easily. :] But..with the daily above the (slightly) rising 200ma and the monthly beyond a .618 retracement of the last move this upward momentum may have some life left in it. I'm just glad I don't buy and hold. :] Mike
And recently, many individual charts in Naz and NYSE exhibiting various bearish formations, which should be monitored for short entries (stalling patterns, evening stars, Bearish engulfing candles, several gap downs from recent 60 day highs across different sectors, pullbacks from lows, including for example SPX, CREE, CCMP, FDX, ABF, EDS, COLM, ICOS, MYGN)
I think this coming week may be crucial. Lots of major earnings and numbers coming out. Should push it one way or the other.
Can't see your charts either Pej. I am looking for a bounce in the first part of the week then we should see some downside (hanging man and engulfing bear on weekly DOW, S&P, dark cloud on NDX). Correction now I think we could finish the move out of the bear flag on 60 min. hit 50 MA on the major indices then bounce a bit at the end of week. Should be down on the week I think anyway I find it pointless for my trading to try to determine the direction more than 2-3 days ahead. Time to go to sleep. Have a good trading week.
A little frustrating, but this should do the trick: Click here to view the Nasdaq Document Click here to view Dow Document Also, while you're at it, the above links take you to the documents within a Community on MSN. If you would like to become a member of the community, just click on "Apply to Join", and you'll gain access once approved. I post quite a few market perspectives to this community, and during the trading day, members get together in the chat room to exchange ideas. I am not always in the chat room, but sometimes pop in and give some trade ideas. Use the bulletin boards like you use the bb's on Elite Trader.