Trading in a range..oh we are trading in a range. Lots of people wanting to buy up here..but looking at the short term charts the air looks pretty thin (they need to rest) and the hourly chart is still in a range and its at the top of it. Trade a range like a range and a trend like a trend. I had my fun for the day..so im going to go start my new years party early..and maybe put in a small short on Microsoft. Have a happy New Year Brandon
What happned to all your bigtime 17 pages of charts proving out the short side ???............This is why I kept saying....there is NO proof for BUY OR SELL until after the new year.........you could see this entire week was really non eventful.........scalps at best............like I said from Thurs before triples......Wait it out & be patient..........First your short into 12/21 around 1145 cash basis on SP.....it has gone up...now your net long higher ?.........why not wait it out for confirmation than to Short at lows & buy at highs its 1160-63 area now cash basis........happy new year Chartiwz th
Remain neutral at the moment. Anyone hear that great big sucking sound of retail getting long in anticipation of a new year rally? Still neutral and ready to lift the hedge and return to short bias very soon.........
Chartwiz; With all due respect, your tune is getting quite boring. Do you like to hear yourself rant and rave all the time, repeating the same stuff over and over again? Or will the day come where you will actually refrain from talking until you have something new & meaningfull to say, once. Now, quick caveat for you, there are members in this group that are enjoying and appreciating the time i am taking to share some insight from a larger operator. Trading is about anticipation, and one shouldn't fear that. One persons opinion is never superior to anothers, so stop stroking yourself. I mistakenly thought you were more mature than this, but I was as wrong as my early short call. If you don't like it, as Tony Oz says, feel free to use the ignore function and hit delete. But the same old stuff gets boring after a while.
Pej......stop yawning when you firmly took a short postion & made a big deal about it only to switch gears in 2 days.......... okay fair.......you made a mistake & you admitted it< I make mistakes all the time BUT I dont point fingers at people to justify my errors........ My question is......., your a bigtime operator as you clearly said...........I have to ask , IF you had a hedgefund already started working with........what would you have done if you went in with 25 or 50 milion short at the bottom of a trading range into holiday season with no volume ?........punt ? go long at the top of the range as you said during the same conditions ?..what will you tel your future boss when asked WHY are you reversing so much & the markets havent gone anywhere ?........Really you should think about yoru game plan when you take on big money, its not the same as making calls on ET or your chatroom.......cant get scared out of moves and if your charts say short....stay short, dont exit at the top of a trading range.......you may be rewarded sticking to your guns........... I am not clear on what you would do ( i dont want to hear it) .....this was my point from day one........you didnt want to hear it... like i said...calling the markets is 1 thing, trading is another.......I clearly showed you why there was NO need to get into a position....I am not stroking myself....& I am not one to be stroked also..........your 17 page these was your form ranting & raving no ? or do you always write 17 pages with charts & analysis because your relaxed calm & have nothing to do 7 change your game plan in 2 days ( 2 bars on a daily chart). I wish you the best trying to manage a hedge fund & hope you have a great 2002 & beyond..........I am not being sarcastic or rude or stroking myself, you elected to take 1 side of the position & I took the other , I had my reason & you had yours.........thats what makes a market right ? No hard feelings at all & we all learned something from trying to work trades in a dead sideways market with no volume & a triangle forming over a holday season.......gets you bearish at lows & bullish at highs....... Pej.......I wish you the best, seriously & lets forget this beating a dead horse as I agree, its old........& lets move on to better & bigger things... Chris......
Lesson #1: Slowly establish your line, first move never more than 10% of total outlay. Objective here is to get engaged so that you are locked into the tape and you can have a much more coherent understanding of the dynamics involved in your speculation. #2: Always devise a hedge application that would result in net neutral without closing position, so that you are not as you say, "switching gears in two days...". This type of trading is very diff't than your hyper-trading intraday and does not involve buying at the top and selling at the bottom. In fact, the Nas is only 18 points above my initial line, but the hedge was applied after 9 points, so there is no real loss at this juncture except for hedge carry costs and some margin interest. When a trader goes net neutral, they are not "switching gears", they are merely using a more dynamic instrument for risk control. Additionally, your hedge application will need to adjust based on the markets activity almost every 10 minutes. It is critical to keep your hedge constantly updated so that when it needs to be applied, it accurately reflects your real market risk. This type of hedge is applied rather often as it is not unusual for the position to move against you initially. In fact, the greatest risk at any time is the point of initial execution (I'm sure you know why). This qualifies the intent of opening with a mere 10% in order to significantly offset the initial risk. Think about it: If you full position is to be 1000 shares, opening with 100 is relatively equal to not being exposed at all, so the nas moving 9 points against you on 100 shares equals my daily lunch cost. Be more receptive to logical reasoning for as you know, the sport of trading does not benefit from emotional ranting and raving.... #3: If hedge is applied, stay neutral until you can clearly decide which part of the trade you want to lift. This is almost my favorite part of any trade. The greatest challenge to more sophisticated traders is their ability to accurately calculate the appropriate off-set that results in a true neutral profile. Once neutral, you can watch and just like having a bullet or in the old days, keeping a box, you can quickly go net either side. #4: If initial outlay does not immediately move in your favor, do not hesitate to execute hedge and go to neutral. This is critical. #5: See #4 #6: Stay focused and remain patient. Once move is clear, lift appropriate side and go net directional and look for first chance to double exposure (i.e. go from 10% to 20% exposure). Once you do this, again calculate your appropriate hedge strategy and keep it updated every 30 minutes or so. When engaged in choppy markets and expecting a large move, this is the most efficient way to stay engaged without risking yourself to loss. But for a hyper-active trader like yourself, this type of trading is perhaps out of your league? I don't mean this in a bad way. Many things remain out of my league to this day. This type of trading strategy in fact results in a rise in your Sharpe ratio, but I'm not quite sure if you know what a Sharpe ratio is. If not, I would be more than happy to explain it to you. When you trade institutional capital, your Sharpe Ratio is your holy water. Pejman Hamidi
Dear Pejman, Thank you for letting us see some of the pros work, I apreciate it. Got a couple of questions : -what do you mean by hedge ? would it be somethimg like buy a certain stock and then wait a little till it moves in your favour ; if it goes against you buy/sell (?) some options? Are there other instrumewnts you use? -how do you go net direction? Is it like buy and sell the stock simulaneusly and when it starts moving somewhere (where you "want it to go") then liquidate the un-wanted part of the position? The mechanics im interested in. -also, if you use options could you give me a couple of simple guidelines or websites or something cos I have to learn them for my college also and... i never really understood them. Thank you and good luck with your work Alex