I dont have time to read the whole history ... My comments from reading this thread: Brandon's points are valid and they coincide with some of the plays that we do ... I dont think he has to post his entire trading history to give a few valid suggestions .... I dont think anyone would bother posting if every time they made any claim they had to post exhaustive trading logs .... Who has time for that ?
I think Baron should take your post and make it part of a code of conduct for ET.... I definitely agree. It's like saying a great pitching coach has to be a Cy Young winner before he can give valuable and helpful advice! daniel_m, where did you get your chip, bro??!! Ice
The shorts definatly seem to be in vogue today. Right now though we are coming up to some support (60 minute chart at around 840 in the S&P) so I'm not feeling particularly aggressive either way. I had a trade today in NEM long from 27.50. My intial stop was under 27.35. The 15 minute 200 is generally a very strong resistence area, so as it came up to that I have sold off half of the shares and am holding the rest as a potential swingtrade with a stop right around the area of my entry. OVER was a perfect example of a trap gap this morning and has continued lower ever since. I'll put up charts of both of these after the close. On the other front, I somehow managed to lose 1.25 points shorting the SP near the open, so thats my activity for today so far. Not too much. With the increased activity and wide ranges of the last few days a lot of the amature crowd is probably pouring back into the market right now. Generally after the market goes flat a lot of people will take off and dismiss the market as "Not tradeable", then after a few "good" days they can not wait to pile back in. Usually they pile in right in time for it to grind to a halt again and continue to take their money. This is a pretty important cycle to keep an eye on as its active all the time, markets doing whatever it can to take as much money from the most number of people. Given this Id expect a few days of range bound kind of trading, but we will see what we get. Only time knows for sure. Hope everyone is having a good day. Brandon
Weird. I do the opposite with gaps (very large ones), the ones that don't fill in and profit from their partial reversal the next day. According to your method, these are the ones that will continue moving in the same direction (clearly not what I find).
I have no idea what they do the next day. I'm looking on the day they occur. Also, Im looking at those that continue to hold their gap for the first several minutes of the day. Not just any stock with a gap. Brandon
I find that predicting those is actually a bit easier than looking at the day of the event. By the next day, the herd has typically finished running back and forth and the action is more predictable.
Excellent. Since Brandon has so much data collected on the subject, it would be interesting to compare yours with his. Have you broken yours down with regard to size of gap, holding period, minimum necessary stop, etc.? --Db