Trend following works because there are liquid markets populated by participants with multiple agendas. In addition, we have institutions in the markets and they bring size and size creates momentum and sustains trends... If your reasoning were correct, the markets would simply oscillate up and down like an EKG tape of someone's heart beat. Finally, trend occurs on various time scales...so what looks like chop on a given day can actually be part of a larger trend.. Unless it gets extreme I trade it all. What makes the difference is the tools you use.... Becky's idea is interesting because it seems to minimize losers and keeps you out of markets unless you have a chance at hooking a big fish...depending on its accuracy that could be a nice way to go. Steve
Steve, you bring up the most important point -- it really depends on your time frame. Analysis of the markets is definitely open to interpretation. I've always found buying what everyone else is selling and vice versa works best for me but to each his or her own. The OP really isn't giving any information to draw any conclusions anyway so unless she decides to open the book a little more this thread is just about dead. C'mon Becks, let's talk time frame, specific entries, indicators you're using. Trust me, you could post your entire system and you wouldn't be giving a thing away because trading is an art, not a science. Sooooo much judgment and discretion is required! Trading is like stock car racing -- they all drive the same car but only one driver can win the race so let's hear a little more about the car your driving.
Becky, Started this thread for one of three reasons. a. To share openly b. To get clients c. To stroke her ego Which one is it Beck ?
Well Okay, first SWhiting 2 points is not big fish true...But one can improve on what Becky is doing I assure you...and If you look closer at what she is stating, its not just 2 points. The system looks for bigger game and apparently stays in to catch those moves. To know what the real expectancy of the system is, you would have to average the big winners with the 2 point scalps. Minus the losers of course. Now Profit Ah, I am looking at systems like Becky's from a different point of view. I already have a system that works. Some of it is posted in the thread "Ideas for Struggling Traders".. My way of approaching this is to take a concept, and try to improve it. Becky says she looks at issues that advance minus issues that decline during the first half hour and enters based on that criteria If you wanted to reverse engineer that concept, why not go to your charts and look at how the market behaves after the first half hour when the ADV/DCL is at various levels. Make your own observations and check out the results.. Mark Brown is right about one thing, this ain't rocket science. What it IS, for those who want success is mostly the hard boring work of doing the data collection and then writing and testing your rule set. Any of you could do this just using an Excel spreadsheet in a few evenings. I hope this helps just a little. Steve
ok here is the deal... After the market starts I watch the ADVDEC Issues for a serious move in the first 30 mins. It happens 2 or 3 times a week that the ADVDEC rockets to a significant level let's say for example +6000 (in the first 30 mins) numbers might be different in your chart... So if it moved that big within the first 30 mins (most of the time it happens in 15 mins) it means that the market is most probably will trend this day upwards.. so I get in early based on the price action.. ofcourse the price must move in the same direction as the advdec.. so if advdec hits the +6000 level withing the first 30 minsplus price action confirmed I get in and get my 2 points early in the day. vice versa if it reach -6000 level this time I go short for 2 points.. now it happens like 1 or 2 times a month that the advdec hits the +/-10000 level in the first 30 mins if that happens I ride the trade all day making a very nice profit that's it in a nutshell don't expect me to teach every one here and give you the exact thing and coach millions here.. I posted the outlines so you guys know how I manage to make those trades.
I was just about to comment on the entry and exit of your first chart and then I read the above sentence. So I shut up.
Fair enough, Thanks for sharing and that's all you really need if you manage your money properly. Best of trades to you.
ah ha, we're onto something interesting now. Telling me what you are looking for/at, even if you gave me more detail, doesn't do a thing for my trading and I mean that in a good way. If you are generating profits based on lunar orbits you still need some sort of talent. Trading definitely isn't X+Y=Z. Steve says trading is not that hard and I agree with him, but it's not that easy either. I've tried to teach a lot of traders over the years and a few make it but most don't. I teach them the intimate details of my system and still only a few will get it. And, even the ones who do get it run into problems. There are many times during the day that I will pass up triggers that fit my system and take others that don't. It just comes down to intuition and experience. Intuition can't be taught but experience can make a fairly good substitute.
Every trade in her blog for the month of June was for 2 points, and these appeared to be profit targets and not profits taken after trailing stops were hit. I didn't see anything about risk management, position sizing, stops, etc, all essential items in a system. Imo, having such small profit targets with a trend following system is a mistake. At least I would not/do not trade that way.