U/CAD did bounce yesterday and caught it when it came down again to below 4950 but pattern was slow up so took just a few pips. Missed the sell furthe down. It appears to be completing a 5 wave set down from near 1.0200 with the wave 3 down almost complete. From about 9870-9850 it seems there will be a fouth wave up in ABC pattern, how high to be determined by fundamentals partially, then fifth wave down as double bottom or lower. Approximate target up will be conservatively 9950 at this time and could be easily revised higher. Note that's below first fib levels if fib is taken from 0150 area high recent reversal point. CAD/JPY bounced a bit as well as expected then resumed higher high with current target for possible larger bounce down at 109.45-55, completing a 5 wave set up since low of 105.00, a nice upswing that shows potential for a larger trend up after significant Elliot Pattern ABC down correction.
U/CAD dropped further than expected so larger retracement making 4th Elliot Wave is yet to happen, revised bouncepoint being near 9800, currently at 9820. Tried catching it for bounce at 9850 but was hit with 14 pip stop on small position. It bounced there but only 10 pips and rushed analysis and trade entry contributed to unneccesary loss. If at computer will try and catch lower entry for large bounce up expected overnight. The EUR/USD seems to be reaching a buncepoint at 4950-55 and will drop however higher highs seem likely give the larger unfolding Elliot Wave pattern seen on hourly charts. More on that later. Some Fundamental Perspective "Currency analysts said rising commodity prices were behind much of the loonie's recent strength. Canada's commodity wealth is widely seen as being a major factor in the value of its currency, so when commodity prices rise, the loonie usually follows. Oil futures were back above $100 US a barrel in New York trading on Tuesday, natural gas prices were up, gold futures gained more than $4 US to $944.30 US an ounce and wheat traded above $12 US a bushel for the first time ever. The U.S. dollar also came under renewed pressure after a measure of wholesale inflation rose by a full percentage point in January â the biggest increase in 16 years â and the U.S. Conference Board said consumer confidence fell dramatically last month."
CAD/JPY Hit target and bounced as expected and could be finished up for a while so will move stop to zero now that it's reached 109.20, partial will be taken off table at below 109.10 the rest left for target of about 108.50
CAD/JPY has reached higher stopping the remaining sell position. re-sell is being considered at 109.44 U/CAD has been bought at 9789 with hopes of emminant trend reversal. EUR/USD has been sold at 4974 at near double top of about 7980, Stops are close. The U/CHF seems nearing exhaustion for the day at about 1.0750 area so a rise is favoured. Trying to estblish what might be the best Swing trade pair and I'm gravitating towrds the CAD/JPY at this point but need further study. CAD/JPY could retrace a lot soon.
U/CAD at 9827 and could soften about there before pushing higher later. Some profit off is my strategy. AUD/USD seems to want to reach for 9355-60 and seems like it could bounce there however with bullish trend don't know yet if it's a strong possibility for pushing higher. will have to do more due dilligence.
Missed the re-sell on CAD/JPY but am ready for another sell if it hits 50 again. Target 109.00 Majors did an unusual thrust further during what often is a quiet time for trading. Was stopped at - 3 pips on EUR/U and missed higher re-entry sell possibility at 5045. The U/CHF provided a good bounce at a determinable point of 0705 after faking an almost turnaround at 0750. Fortunatly I scalped and was out when the fast further drop hit but missed the 0705 bounce up for a quick return to 0750 It appears that the larger trend for majors is to continue with small corrections occuring now. Another rise from 5000 to higher high for EUR/U is possible... Too rushed to keep up on precision analysis today so will try and figure tonight where major bounces on larger overall trends will be for later this week. The USD seems clearly bouncing up in ABC up finishing A up B down with C up to go.
In case anyone is interested... http://www.wave-dynamics.com/ http://www.elliottwave.com/ http://www.investopedia.com/article...ical/111401.asp http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PufPdUfhKA
Hey! What a day yesterday! Eur/usd simply defines the real trend, once they've crossed the 1.49 lvl so confidently, all other pairs started to take it on the dollar. It's like a lag: last 2 weeks of fundamental reports coming out were disastrous (for the dollar) and it was like if no one cared. All of a sudden we get some smalltime bad news and everyone just takes the pair to new historical highs. Commodities are going crazy for inflation hedge, Poole said inflation is rising and sounding some important alarms about stagflation. This is strating to unfold likewise at the time of first FED rate cut. And I want to make sure, the trend is counting me in too ! Let's start the strategic debate with something that we ought to cope with everyday. Stock traders eager to play FX: in other words, Carry trade Vs Rate differential/Economic growth trade. A lot of these carry traders are in fact stock traders looking for adventure or trying to diversify to FX, the easy way. I know some small tens-of-millions fund managers that only know stocks and are trying to develop strategies for carry trade, since it's like playing stocks, only with Fx vehicles. Bottom-line: Instead of diversification they are delving deeper into a portfolio closely regarding the stock market indexes. AUD/USD The reason I came up with this theme is because I noticed ur comment on this pair. Though similar to, for instance USD/CHF (not at the momment, but some months ago) and the like, Aussie is probably the best example to show that carry trade is blurring the real economical fundamentals. Aussie is in fact a textbook case for a bullish trend, but because of the stockmarket uncertainty and carrytrade, it hasn't been so. This is the reason why I try to stray away from potencial carry trade pairs, at the momment. Because there are pairs that give two contradictory signals: bearish because of stockmarket uncertainty and weakness of fundamentals; and rate differencial for a bullish trend. They are still tradeable, but since I'm not full-time yet, wouldn't like to risk, because carry trade brought much more volatility to this pairs and it is dangerous to use common 10-20 leverage on such markets that have increased their proneness to volatility. USD/Cad This is crazy! I mean there can't be any other comment on this pair just unbelievable, what a bear rush! I'm in short again at .9913, because I think there will be a trend against the dollar. Like said before the eur/usd will be the leading pair and in the wake of such a bullish signal I expect a trend to develop out this one incident of yesterday. First target .95 (around) it is the lower bollinger band for weekly charts. Eur/Usd It passed the 1.49 mark with strong strong support from traders all around the world from Europe to America, maybe not so much with regard to the Asian session. Now where going up but I have no PT because it is unprecedented, will have to monitor closely. Entered yesterday at 1.4983.
Another pulse up is probable but need to rest before re-analysis. I liked the breakout down on the G/CHF today. Caught some depreciation tonight after missing it earlier in the day. I exited then missed the rapid bounce back up. Trying to kick the multitasking habit. I miss too much movement. 300.00/barrel oil? Know any good oil charts? Need high prices so that the Saudis can buy U.S. debt. It's a tradeoff apparantly. So say the rumors anyway. AUD/U - I suspect it's primarily commodity driven at this stage. Watching for a larger technical turning point. U/CAD - Another commodity driven pair, I need to look again at technicals but am nearly finished for the day. Yes, it's interesting. I've been fairly busy with other business but have followed to a point. There seems to be a technical pattern for these larger moves when observing the 1 day candles. Elliot Waves are happening. Just went through all the charts briefly and will examine again for more thorough analysis. At this point larger trends on majors doesn't appear quite ready for a huge retracement yet although a sizable one is underway on some but temporary. On AUD for example there's an ABC down happening from aboive 9450 with A of ABC done and B up happening if I'm reading it right. Bought up for a few pips from 9375 and am out just now. Over and out in fact.