Will watch for a further rise on U/CAD after pullback is finished, target yet to be determined. Conservative target on pullback .0055-8 A more ideal entry on G/U will be watched for after drop to about 9570-5 before larger correction up to about 9635-40 conservatively. Further drop of GBP/CHF before significant rise as previously outlined. Over and out for today.
U/CAD has performed as expected according to Elliot W. and has reached another bouncepoint area at .0155 although may only pause and extend up a bit more. The EUR/GBP is trending up nicely although also well into it's pattern up with a bit more to go expected. Conservative target nearterm being about 7575-80. CAD/JPY is Waving down and could bounce a bit at 105.65-50 before finishing larger impulse down with a target of at least 105.45-50. I'm waiting for a more ideal entry lower on GBP/CHF and U/CHF so if that happens there could be significant upswing. Or if they ascend from here uptrend could be caught for a few pips. EUR/CAD appears to be at a bouncepoint at 4975ish and may settle significantly soon before resuming another upswing. All now
Some thoughts going into Friday... U/CAD has an Elliot Wave pattern that appears to me to leave room for further upward movement possibly before close this week however not sure if it's going to drop a bit first before moving up so will either catch for a buy it as it bounces down near 1.0050 with target of 1.0200ish or attempt to catch a breakout up if downspike doesn't occur. News, of the press will be noted to help determine the rate of movement and to confirm upwards bias is continued. News that is CAD positive and given current bearish USD sentiments may cause any day rise to be short lived. At this point I tend to favour the U/J and U/CHF down for swing trades but wait for higher sell entry than current prices of U/CHF(1.0904 current) more ideal/extreme sell entry being about 0975ish target being below recent low and U/JPY(107.43 current) ideal entry being near 108.00 with target below 105.50 Will update as time for further review is found. Comments welcome. All the best.
U/CHF and and U/JPY didn't retrace to extremes before lower lows and seem to be on on route for targets so those already in trend down are favoured although they both appear that they could bounce up significantly before still trending down now having reached lower lows. U/CAD has dropped basically as expected and forthcoming news will determine if it climbs fast towards the distant higher target.
U/CAD seems on track for higher recent highs with news spike indicating probable climb higher after pause/correction off .0145ish, target being .0200ish or slightly below. Although the Elliot Count pattern is a bit sloppy it seems quite upward indicating especially the spike on minute charts.
Hey! I like your idea of a journal and also u play the same markets! Here's my first comment as of today (still going for the validation of your and everyonelses' ideas). Loonie is a position I'm into since wednesday when it touched upper bollinger, sold limit at 1.016, now I got my first confirmation from stochastics today (fast crossed under slow, in daily timeframe), waiting for the very last confirmation big one-day move to the downside and crossing of the SMA (ranging from 18 to 23 smooth factor), all in the daily timeframe. TP lower bollinger band, but scanning for possibe setback. The "mother of all currency pairs" (EUR/USD). I've been long since wednesday too, thinking was clandlestick uncertainty pattern (not sure but think they call it a "dodji") above the 20day SMA the past behavior observed in the last 2 narrow-range cycles. On the fundamental side I must say Wed was a nightmare for greenback bulls, 3 pieces of info giving 2 super signals (downgraded forecast for GDP growth and lower interest rates for "sometime"). I am happy with this trade though gotten so reluctant lately to risk anything when prices get above the 1.49 lvl. That got my TP set right there. Would like to conclude with a suggestion for the journal. Discussing moves and trades is good, for instance, you've spotted an elliot wave pattern. I know the theory just haven't integrated into my psychological set-up for trading and got a kneat piece of info from ur comment, as stochastics and Parabolic SAR confrim the move on the bear side, as well. In order to truly foster and attain excellence in trading one needs, like in any business, to take care of operations (scanning of oportunities and execution of trades) and in a scheduled fashion revise, review, improve and optimise "Strategic" issues (Portfolio management, trading strategies, parameters optimization, fundamental analysis methodology...). My suggestion: to discuss, weekly, "Strategic" issues. Please let me know what u make of the suggestion. Enjoy ur trading!
Yes, on a site this busy an active Journal with plenty of comment is the probable outcome if valid content shows by at least one or more contributors... this I realize now. Quality is bound to attract quality. I welcome anything to stretch understanding and increase knowledge and encourage your suggestion as the more complete contribution analysis approach makes sense. I've tried to work with that concept before but havn't discovered quite the right forum despite searching with some diligence. Anything that might reduce human error is welcome. There may come a day when I make almost no mistakes but not quite there yet. Having nearly perfected ideal entries I'm now wanting to improve in 3 areas. 1) have more time to focus on trading, 2)get better at catching swing trends early if ideal reversals are missed and 3) stay in trades until distant Elliot wave patterns are fullfilled at least conservatively. My largest mistake is number 3 as I often get into good reversals at ideal bouncepoints if I'm at computer during the right times. I use 4 indicators mainly although want to be more consistant with evaluating news/fundamentals to help determine length and speed of swings. 1) Elliot Wave analysis, 2) Trendlines, 3)Stochastics and 4)EMA's. For me, the Elliot patterns have been dominant deciders. It's taken a while to learn the failure probability of complete E.W. patterns especially on minute charts however there's is still plenty of consistancy to get one into good trade trends. Regarding the U/CAD I agree with larger Swing down but would prefer it reach an ideal top of above .0200 first. If it gets there then it will at least bounce, giving chance for ideal entry allowing stops to be moved safely and hope for big downmove. I'm hoping to be catching 2-5 nice swings per week worth a few dozen pips.
It's great to count on ur approval of suggestion! Fx trading Trading model I track fundamental economic data for 18 (in the process of including 10 more economies) countries. On the technical side I use a combination of SMAs and EMAs (total of 5), bollinger bands, stochastics slow (parameter range: 5,3,3 to 9,5,5), Parabolic SAR, candle patterns, trendline breaking and bouncing, miscellaneous support resistance, fibonacci (but only in clearly trending situations, as I can't put it up to good use in ranging markets). Also, I'm working on refining intermarket-relationship techinics, because most books teach which markets correlate to one another, but they fail do develop thinking further, for instance, what would happen to the loonie if Canadian economy faltered but oil skyrocketed (trying to go back and observe past reactions in order to learn & earn from it). Summing it up I have some indicators that are critical to me (stochastics slow, bollinger, SMA, EMA, Parabolic SAR and miscellaneous support/resistance), others I use occasionally adn still others are in testing phase. USD/CAD Final confirmation is here, but still, have to improve on psychological factor, as my position was closed some momments ago, a nice trip of little over 1%, but could've yielded more if I had sticked to the plan. I'm kind of weary about being too bullish on the loonie because oil prices are already high and not much bullish prospect in terms of demand (commodities I have come to learn are mostly influenced by demand in the long-run, supply woes have limited short-term influence| i.e. weather for grains). I guess I'll be going for technical trading in this pair, if trade it again soon. Eur/Usd Still waiting for PT to be reached at 1.4883. but by the end of today will re-evaluate my decision on this position. Here it is really up to marketparticipants to decide where price is to go: rally above 149...150...or break down on the outspoken technical bear. I feel range bound trading will end soon if not over yet. My bias now is on the down side technicals are starting to favor a bear break, but still need more confirmation to go along with this opportunity. Anticipation is key, but too much will turn the system's win/loss ratio very ugly and since my average winner is not much bigger than my average loser, not going through with it. Chf/Jpy I'm looking for a bear stochastic divergence in the 1hr and daily. Weekly is close to upper bollinger band and and fundamentaly quite even, though slightly in Swissy's favour (in my opinion). Expectations for this possible opportunity are of fast, small-to-medium profit (around 0.75% to 1.5% price move). Still on the look out... Journal weekly discussion I would like to propose setting a topic on Friday for the next week: it could be a startegy, brokers, software... and for the week: articles books, discussions, ideas are posted. Well, about ur comments: going full-time is my dream. Specially in such a knowledge based business, there is a lot to read investigate, test, create... I have the same not-being-in-front-of-computer-at-the-right-momment problem. Tried mobile communications but the connection speed is just overwhelmingly slow and most m-applications have very bad graphs, which would still make a computer necessary for trading, guess we'll have to wait for technology to rise up to our necessities. One possible solution is small-sized notebook, but the convenience is just wiped clean (in comparison to m-trading). I currently am focusing on Fx trading strategies, for full-time trading with annual net returns of around 1.8 (180% net profit) times the money each year. Also I use my standard approach to managing fx positions in a balanced fundamental/technical model, using daily timeframe as the cornerstone for deciding trades. With the assistance of the indicators referred to earlier. In the meantime am learning options: I must say that have been getting very hopeful about this since it has the ability to turn trading into a much more certain business, besides I still think that options (namely complex strategies like "butterflies" and "condors" are a very important milestone, like the accomplishment that can give a karate practicioner her blackbelt). Any idea for a topic to dicuss along trades for this week?
U/CAD is nearing a bouncepoint up of 9950ish, so is CAD/JPY for bounce down at about 108.50-60 due to U/CAD bouncing up and U/JPY bouncing down probably from about 108.25 ish. Note that CAD/JPY rose well as its majors trended nicely multiplying CAD/J up about 350 pips since Friday. I missed catching the trend down on U/CAD, caught the trend up on GBP/J and ignored the CAD/JPY... too busy yet again to pay close enough attention to all that was happening so missed some good action Everything was apparant enough to have easily caught the 4 aforementioned pairs in trend if reversal was missed. In my case I was off computer Friday at CAD/JPY reversal so missed it. Thought the U/CAD might go higher before down so would have missed the bouncepoint down on that but it was clear on CAD/JPY despite that another pulse down after bounce before the actual rise did appear to be an option. Watching for bounces again anytime soon. GBP/JPY is already softening however will watch for another rise off 212.25-30 today for possible target of 212.90ish before larger reversal down happens according to ideal Elliot Wave pattern expectations. All now.
Wasn't paying close enough attention so just missed the bounce of U/CAD off 9956, a fairly ideal attempt point to catch a bounce up after long drop. The Elliot Wave micro pattern on one minute charts shows that there could be another micro-pulse down to about the same point so will wait for that or catch confirmed trend up.