After a bounce up, the EUR/USD should work its way down to well below 5750 so catching catching a sell at the top of a bounce up and going with current downtrend will be worth watching for. A bounce up to 5870 would present a faily ideal sell opportunity if it gets there within hours.
July 28 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund said there's no end in sight to the U.S. housing recession and warned that deteriorating credit conditions for consumers and banks may prolong a period of slow economic growth. ``At the moment, a bottom for the housing market is not visible,'' the IMF said in its Global Financial Stability Report, released today in Washington. ``Stemming the decline in the U.S. housing market is necessary for market stabilization as this would help both households and financial institutions to recover.''
USD/CAD is reaching up nicely and should retrace well. I'm watchiong for an entry of about 0270-75 at this time. Target will be 0210
Canadian Dollar Drops For Fifth Day on Weakening Commodities By Jamie McGee July 28 (Bloomberg) -- The Canadian dollar declined for the fifth day amid concern that weakening commodity prices may signal slowing economic growth.
Australia Better Placed Than Most to Resist Downturn, Swan Says By Angela Macdonald-Smith July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Australia is better placed than most other countries to withstand the global economic slowdown because of its well-regulated banking sector and ``disciplined'' budget position, Treasurer Wayne Swan said. Australia has a ``substantial surplus to provide a buffer against difficult global conditions,'' Swan said today in an e- mailed statement responding to the International Monetary Fund's comment yesterday that there's no end in sight to the U.S. housing recession. The nation continues to receive high prices for its commodity exports, he said. The IMF, in its Global Financial Stability Report, warned that deteriorating credit conditions for consumers and banks may prolong a period of slow economic growth. It stood by its April forecast for about $1 trillion in losses stemming from the U.S. mortgage crisis. ``Our banking sector is taking prudent steps by putting in place provisions to cover the potential impact of the difficult global financial conditions and poor investment decisions of the past,'' Swan said in the statement.
USD/CAD may exceed 0275 area before retracing so the small scale Elliot Count bears watching. The reversal when it happens should be worth a few dozen pips. EUR/USD is low so I bought in the 70's, currently 5580. It may come down for a double bottom or lower but should rise first. Target curerently is 5625 area conservatively. The downward patter from high of several days ago shows a 12345 completing so the bounce up this week could be significant unless 5th wave extends down in smaller 5 wave set of it's own. USD/CHF seem ready to pull back soon before reaching up again for higher highs, now at 0465 area.
USD/CHF is high at just over 0600 and should bounce down 50 pips or more later today, probably from where it is now. The rrr is 2:1 or better depending on Elliot Wave pattern developement as retracement happens. The larger trend is for more upward movement but the pairs need to take a rest for a bit it seems. Fundamentals will help determine how much and for how long... need to read that as I'm not up to speed on the lastest. USD/CAD is nearing a bouncepoint at 0500. It should bounce 100 pips or more when it turns. AUD/USD is worth watching for a turnaround swing long as well, especially due to the economic reports later today.
As review the USD/CHF trade did as proposed. USD/CAD did bounce but not by much, just enough for small profit on partial position and stop to or near 0 on the rest. AUD/USD has bounced off a few points as it trends lower. Some attempts to catch the bottom have brought some partial profits and 0 pip stops. The turnaround is yet so the process of carefully finding the large turnaround point continues. Currently it's at 8755 but not really a safe entry. 8700 was but I missed being at computer then. If double bottom or lower does not occur then watching for uptrend confirmation will be in order. USD/CHF hit an obvious bouncepoint at just over 0900 so I sold for 36 pips, now waiting for possible re-entry sell at near 0900 or downtrend confirmation although Elliot Wave pattern on large scale shown unfinished patter up after a possible lower bounce down is complete.
U.S. Economy: Trade Gap Narrows on Surge in Exports (Update1) By Courtney Schlisserman Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in June as the biggest jump in exports in more than four years overwhelmed record imports of petroleum. The gap shrank 4.1 percent to $56.8 billion from $59.2 billion in May, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Shipments to Germany and the U.K. rose more than 4 percent, exports to Italy jumped 9.7 percent, and sales to Argentina and Brazil also climbed.
Canadian Dollar Snaps Longest Losing Streak in 3 Years on Trade By Cordell Eddings Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's dollar snapped its longest losing streak in three years after a government report showed the nation's trade surplus increased during June. The Canadian dollar strengthened versus the 16 most- actively traded currencies and gained for the first time in nine days against its U.S. counterpart.