I sold AUD/USD and remain paritally in the trade after taking some profit, target is still 9550ish. AUD/NZD went up but not as high as expected yet. A sell setup is still favoured at above 2300. AUD/CHF didn't quite make the 0057 mentioned but came close enough to sell. I missed it. EUR/USD bounced as expected at 5550 area. I sold USD/CHF at 0456 instead of buying EUR/U as EUR/CHF seems fairly high meaning USD/CHF could drop more than EUR/USD rises, we'll see. My analysis was hasty on E/CHF and G/CHF. USD/CHF target is 0375ish but will take some profit before then depending on how trade pattern developes.
Took some profit on usd/chf below 0440 and moved stop close on rest only to be stopped out so am watching for re-entry sell. Bought USD/CAD at 9826 and have taken some early profit and holding the rest for more. The pattern on the U/CAD seems for more down movement but won't think of selling until it retraces above 9875 at least. And then selling will depend on the Elliot Wave count up.
By Bo Nielsen and Agnes Lovasz May 29 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose to the highest level in more than a week versus the euro as a U.S. government report showed the economy grew at a faster pace than initially estimated last quarter. The currency also gained for a fourth straight day against the yen after Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said yesterday the central bank will raise interest rates should consumers expect faster inflation. ``U.S. data is not turning out as weak as the market anticipated and that's giving the dollar a bounce,'' said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. ``On top of that you had very hawkish comments from the Fed.''
In hasty summary, I missed the re-enter sellpoint of USD/CHF and missed double top on AUD/CHF amongst other entries due to being AFK. AUD/JPY still is high and could depreciate soon although the ideal entry was at 101.00, now at 100.75 so it bears watching early next week. NZD/USD is nearing a bouncepoint down at 7850. I'll take the trade if at keyboard when it happens for a sell attempt to about 7775 U/CHF is dropping nicely as expected and should bounce at 0395-0400 EUR/CHF dropped as expected and nears conservative target of 6205 Out of time until next week.
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The Federal Reserve is paying close attention to the foreign exchange markets and the decline of the dollar, because of its implications for U.S. growth and inflation, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said today. The downward pressures on the dollar "have contributed to the unwelcome rise in import prices and consumer price inflation," he said. "We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar for inflation and inflation expectations and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to both parts of our dual mandate, including the risk of an erosion in longer-term inflation expectations." Bernanke has never put such emphasis on either the Fed's attentiveness to the dollar's decline or the inflationary dangers it poses. The Fed normally defers to the Treasury on any statements about the U.S. currency, and Bernanke echoed Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's standard statement that the underlying strengths of the U.S. economy "will be key factors ensuring that the dollar remains a strong and stable currency." In his prepared remarks, delivered by satellite to the International Monetary Conference in Barcelona, Bernanke left the Fed's economic outlook essentially unchanged and followed other recent Fed officials in signalling no desire for additional rate-cutting. "We have eased monetary policy substantially and proactively," he said, described it as "well positioned" for now, and added the usual phrase about being "prepared to act as needed." Bernanke said GDP growth in the first quarter was "apparently positive" and that second quarter "is also likely to be relatively week." He said there "may be somewhat better conditions" in the second half of 2008, because of the combined effects of the Fed's rate cuts and the fiscal stimulus package. The risks to growth will be to the downside, from the housing market and oil prices particularly. Consumer spending has so far "held up a bit better than expected," but they face "significant headwinds" from falling home prices, a softer job market and tighter credit. Although headline inflation has remained high because of food and energy prices, Bernanke said "the pass-through of high raw materials costs to domestic labor costs and the prices of most other products has been limited, in part because of the softening of domestic demand." If commodity prices just level out, even at high levels, that "would result in a relatively rapid moderation of inflation," and that is what he and other Fed officials are expecting. The dangers are that commodity prices continue to rise and that persistently high headline inflation "might lead the public to expect higher long-term inflation rates, an expectation that could ultimately be self-confirming." That's the wage-price spiral which Bernanke said has not appeared so far. Recent surveys have shown consumers' near-term inflation expectations rising as is common when oil prices are high, but longer-term expectations have not moved up significantly. Financial markets are broadly better, but "conditions remain strained," Bernanke said. Balance sheet pressures and the relatively high cost of new capital are constraining bank lending. dennis.moore@thomsonreuters.com
Does the Fed statement today confirm trend continuation? Seems that way. AUD/USD might be a good bounce buy attempt at 9475ish soon.
I missed the ideal entry sell attempt point of 9625 on AUD/USD. If it double tops or near I may consider a sell but that would have to be soon. Both the AUD/USD and NZD/USD have major news later hence not taking the double top sell attempt on A/U unless it presents itself soon. If the USD/CAD pushes higher, at or just above 0150 then it will offer a sell entry with fair RRR. It should be good for at least a 50 pip drop and possibly more.
I see a bouncepoint looming on AUD/NZD, currently at 2291 with expected top at or just above 2300. Targeting below 2260 is a conservative probability.
Just sold USD/CAD at 0173. It stretched a bit higher than I thought it might but I've learned to wait. The 1 minute Elliot patern could stretch higher but is conservatively done. Larger Elliot patterns show at least a bounce point. I hope it's that and not just a rest before pushing higher.