I missed another ideal sell attempt on AUD/USD at above 9600 so will watch for confirmed retracement trend. Looking at the G/U for a sell above 9705, catching it at 9725 area may prove profitable for a swing down.
May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $129 a barrel in New York for the first time after billionaire hedge-fund manager Boone Pickens said that oil will reach $150 a barrel this year because supply isn't keeping up with demand. Producers are ``running out of oil,'' Pickens, the founder and chairman of Dallas-based BP Capital LLC, said on CNBC today, reiterating comments he made to Bloomberg News on April 29. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG also said in the past month that prices would rise.
The USD/CHF seems worth a buy attempt at about 0345-50, target conservatively .0425 and perhaps as distant as the .0450 area. It's currently at the 0365 point and I'm hoping to snag it lower for a fair chance at an upswing based primarliy on technicals.
Partial position of USD/CHF has been taken at 0381 and the rest will remain until a more distant target of 0420 or sooner depending on the Elliot Wave pattern. If target is not reached the trade may be exited early or Stopped at 0.
USD/CHF seems low, will watch for a buy at below recent bottom of 0283. That might be at about 0270-75, in fact is a strong possibility but will confirm with Elliot patterns on a smaller scale. There is a clear 12345 down on the 1 hour chart but the 5 may extend down a bit more. Having said that attempts are good to be made for an up correction of larger proportion than earlier. The other option of course is to watch for a confirmed uptrend if the bottom is in fact already past. AUD/USD looks high although pattern appears not quite complete on a smaller scale. Economic news later today may either reverse or extend the anti usd daytrend.
Despite drop on U/CHF just now, the pattern seems likely to extend past 0275 so the waiting game continues. The downtrend is too mature and possibly near completion for me to risk a sell. The larger trend might bend significantly soon.
Despite drop on U/CHF just now, the pattern seems likely to extend past 0275 so the waiting game continues. The downtrend is too mature and possibly near completion for me to risk a sell. The larger trend might bend significantly soon.
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - US durable goods orders fell as expected in April, but core capital goods orders showed unexpected strength with the best performance in a year and a half. Total new durables orders were off 0.5 pct, the Commerce Department reported today, but excluding transportation goods, they were up 2.5 pct. Economists polled by Thomson's IFR Markets had expected orders to fall 1.1 pct for the month overall and to be off 0.7 pct ex-transportation. There was, however, an unusually wide range of forecasts, from -4.0 pct to +1.0 reflecting unusual uncertainty about industry fundamentals as well as the normal monthly volatility. 'One swallow a spring does not make and this report in and of itself does not mean very much. However, taken in conjunction with other data, the resilience of the US economy during what astute observers like Alan Greenspan have warned is the most wrenching period since the Great Depression is quite remarkable,' said Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman.
AUD/USD seems like it's either ready for a further drop attempt at 9625ish but could break up. Studying fundamentals might give the choice mor clarity. I expect I may do a sell attempt at 9625 with target of 9550 conservatively. AUD/NZD should bounce from abut 2325 if it gets there. Conservative target 2275 with some left in to see if the pattern extends down. Bouncepoint expected on AUD/CHF at 1.0057 if it gets there. EUR/USD should bounce at about 5554 if it gets there. Will watch for a bounce of EUR/JPY at 163.25 if it drops there. Being away from the keyboard has resulted in a number of missed ideal entries and I see none present at the moment. Elliot Patterns, smaller scale are ambiguos although some larger are trending. More on that later.