This trade concept performed well. Target was hit. The pair may double top at 5950 or go higher, not sure at the moment. Currently at 5931
It seems that the Elliot Wave patterns, larger scale(daily and weekly candle patterns) show for another upswing for U/CAD but the hourly charts show a recent past sell point of 0172 for a finish of the ABC up, then down in larger C, before another large 12345 rise. In retropsect it apears to have finished the ABC up from 0020 when it reached 0172, a predictable bouncepoint had I done more thorough analysis yesterday. That would have been a good sell attempt for following it to bottom again because if wrong then there stll is room for 0 stops to be placed. Now its at 0140ish but I'm not prepared to sell at the current place and perhaps will wait to see if it drops to a lower bottom than 0018 before contemplating a Swing attempt up. Your EUR/AUD short seems well on it's way. Regarding money flow, one thing of note is that the swiss banks are not liking US dollars these days according to inside rumors of some reliability. This month may be a pivotal one
As an email subscriber to a "trade the news" enterprise I recieved the following several days ago... Hi there This is Felix writing. In the middle of November of 2007, I had a gathering on a big yacht with 200 of our members. We discussed many things, but one of the things I suggested to people is to open bank accounts in Switzerland. I suggested to people opening accounts with UBS, which at that time required a minimum deposit of only $100,000 US Dollars. Today I received an email from my attorney who specializes in US Tax Law. Here is exactly what the email said: "I thought you would find this interesting: UBS is no longer accepting US clientsâ¦current accounts will remain, but no new accounts. This is an amazing development. There are other options, but most require large deposits ($3m+) from US clients." This email sent a shiver of disturbance up my spine for the following reasons. 1. I am not sure if you knew this or not, but after the stock market bust in the late 1920s, the US Government passed a law, which made "gold holdings" illegal. They instantly confiscated everyone's gold, and gave them pennies of what it was actually worth, and whoever tried to buy gold again, became a criminal and was either heavily fined or went to prison. This was a desperate act of the government to inspire people to keep spending their money and stop them from hoarding it in other instruments. 2. I am not sure if you knew this or not, but just a short while back, in 2006, the US government stopped reporting the size of its money supply. That basically means that since 2006, it has been creating money, and nobody in the world officially knows how much money has been put into circulation. This means that the US dollars might be so overinflated in value than most people even realize. 3. In the beginning of 2008, Chinese officials have mentioned for the second time within a few months that they are holding too many dollars, and they would like to diversify their portfolio. Please note that Japan and China have been the two biggest parties buying up dollars, and their demand for dollars is what has kept it afloat. 4. Several times in 2007, and perhaps before that, there were serious suggestions made by some European country officials to set Euro as currency to buy and sell oil with. The fact that demand for oil has been high, and that in order to buy oil, one must buy it in US dollars, has also kept demand for dollars high. So, to make the long story short, we have the US Fed printing as much money as they want, with nobody knowing how much exactly they have been printing, and I have a feeling that the supply of US dollars is increasing a lot more rapidly than demand for them. In addition to that, there are threats from many different parts of the world to hinder demand for US dollars even further. Now, I hope you understand more clearly why that email from my attorney disturbed me. If a major Swiss Bank is stopping to accept US accounts, perhaps it's one of many preparation steps from US government to make sure its citizens do not get their money out of the country, in case there is another major financial crisis similar to the Great Depression. This is just another suggestion that if you have a lot of savings in US dollars or other US instruments, I strongly recommend to take it out of the country. According to the words of my attorney, it seems like Switzerland has shut its doors, but perhaps doors into some other European countries are still open... Interested to hear your thoughts and suggestions.
U/CAD (short) It has found support on the 20-week SMA, but it is clearly getting into a range-bound situation. In monthly charts it is approaching, though in an earlier phase and with less favorable chances, the range-bound situation that at times comes right after market trending. My guess is that unless high-impact news comes in, it will probably be trading up and down. In this type of market cycle, stochastics become very effective. Anyway I have a 50% exit at 0008 (just a symbolic number). Exactly like you mentioned the best trades are the ones that even when unfolding against us, end up close to P&L=0. since daily upper bollinger is almost at my entry point I'm starting to feel more comfortable holding the position and wait for real price action to decide. Carry trade The stockmarket has to go down today in order to confirm predictions that carry pairs will continue the bear round on daily candles. Even so I am preparing to take something out as soon as it reaches the lower bollinger band on the daily charts. Looking afterwards to some retraction to 20-day SMA and then a break on the bear side. Stochastics (5,3,3) for S&P 500 is going down (besides all the resistance points mentioned before) already and it needs to be complemented with a large one-day move on the downside to further strengthen the case for a new bottom in stocks. Earnings season started bearish with Alcoa missing targets. I am currently analysing some papers and articles on carry trade to make some short report to get some insight into how pair are chosen for such trading strategies and ways of identifying them and will be posting conclusions soon. In case stocks go up which is a possibility I won't go for a position because right at 1400 (S&P) we have a very strong resistance (weekly 100 SMA) point plus historical correlation with 2000 technicals. Already deicided to postpone entry until there is decisive action around that point of resistance. Eurchf this pair provides some mixed thoughts, as it went a bit over when relating price action to the stockmarket. But get a feeling that it still correlates nicely to stocks do not so "diligently".
By Haris Anwar April 9 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's dollar fell to the lowest level in a week as traders sold currencies tied to global growth amid concern the U.S. economic outlook is worsening. The Canadian dollar weakened against 15 of the 16 most- traded currencies as the International Monetary Fund urged U.S. policy makers to strengthen their response to the housing slump and the European Central Bank to lower interest rates to stave off a global recession. Canada ships about 80 percent its exports to the U.S.
I caught the bounce of the EUR/U down, 6 pips from top after spread and U/CHF up entering about 8 including spread this morning but have taken profit as the larger trend may continue a bit more before larger correction, or at least retrace from direction of the present small correction occuring now. The USD/CHF apears to be doing at least a large ABC down with C down nearing or finished completion at 9974 seen well enough using 1 hour charts. The EUR/USD seems to be doing another 5 wave set up viewing 1 hour charts and unless pattern fails could reach 5900 again this week before resting and then going even higher.
Commodities Rise Most in 2 Weeks; Oil, Fuel, Corn Hit Records By Millie Munshi April 9 (Bloomberg) -- Commodities jumped the most in two weeks as crude oil, gasoline and corn surged to records following U.S. government reports signaling demand for energy and grain still outpacing supplies. The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Index of 26 commodities rose 2.7 percent to 1,519.18, marking the biggest gain since March 25. The gauge reached a record 1,573.84 on Feb. 29.
U/CAD (short) Not much action here, got a bit jumpy with the starting of hourly charts upside trend but didn't expect it to go much further...relieved it didn't. I'm looking for the next stochastic daily cross-over bear signal to seek a nice opportunity to take some profit and wait for bigger trends in this pair (week or monthly maybe daily). Carry Daily S&P stochastics almost approaching oversold and got me thinking we'll need a strong move on the downside today, maybe tomorrow to confirm further downside, if not, there is a trendline forming on the upside (with a chance it may be getting , but as I said before won't play it on the upside, might get caught by some big news coming in on the bear side (which, to be frank, yields much better odds). Also am on the lookout for some candlestick pattern that might indicate a turning point to exit (in case it comes against me). In line with the analysis, closed U/JPY short position to avoid getting over exposed to a bet on the bear side of stocks. closed at around 1% profit, not good in terms of RRR. Congratulations on the nice close u got for Eur/Chf! Technically it should strat to go down anytime now. Eur/Aud (short) Predict to trade in daily narrow range and only after range-bound cycle is over expect a downside move (all on day charts). This a historically repetitive price prediction. Aud/U (short) Entry: .9290 (stochastics daily bear cross-over, also though a natural candidate, prices don't seem that much correlated to stocks) TP: .91-.915 SL: Closing day above .9335 Short-term trade. Expected to last anywhere from 3 to 5 days.
There seeems to be a bouncepoint looming on USD/CHF at about 9850 and worth going for a big upswing with I suspect. I'll need to watch it as it drops there to know for sure where to enter however if analysis is correct it should rise quite a bit in smaller ABC up at least, perhaps 75-100 pips. And actually it could go much higher but it's nap time so will check in later and see if placing a picture fits the schedule...
The target for USD/CHF is still lower ideally and so is reversal point, about 9840-45 now. I'm not welling at this point although after the small retracement up might sell in anticipation of another impulse wave down to at or near target.