Partial position is out at 5842 with the rest having a 0 stop and target of 5972 conservatively. Buying the EUR/USD at below 5550 would have worked as well however the EUR/CAD had an easier to read Elliot Pattern that looked more complete. It's bouncepoint was easier to pinpoint. USD/JPY bounced off 101.75 however looks incomplete in terms of Eliot Waves down so could double bottom or lower bfore significant upswing. Same is true basidclaly for G/J, it looks like it should go a bit lower, then bounce well. At about201.40-50 for a double bottom. Nap time now
Trade on 1st of April U/CAD Entered at 1.0255 (unable to surpass upper bollinger weekly band resistance) Stop: 1.0355 TP: .9755 (lower bollinger band, weekly charts) Purely technical this trade, as oil prices were coming in bellow 100.
What numbers do you used for Bollinger Bands Galactisol? And are the charts weekly candlesticks that you refer to? I don't use the Bol. Bands so am not used to them. I do use EMAs but the rest of what I focus on tends to be Tech tools that give future readings(Fibs, Elliot Waves, trendline analysis for example) instead of delayed confirmations.
Overnight News Recap: IMF Cuts Global, U.S. Growth Forecasts 06:46 04/02 (CEP News) - The IMF continued to trim growth forecasts for several major global economies on Wednesday morning, citing a 25% chance of a global recession, while markets received falling money supply data from Japan and the UK. The IMF projects a 25% chance that global growth will be under 3.0% in 2008, indicating recessionary levels, according to a report released early on Wednesday morning. Nevertheless, the growth forecast remains at 3.7% for 2008 and 3.8% for 2009, with inflation relatively high. The U.S. economy is showing a sharp contraction with GDP expected at 0.5% in 2008 and 0.6% in 2009. In January, the U.S. was expected to grow 1.5% in 2008. The euro zone economies are expected to grow 1.3% in 2008 and 1.1% in 2009. The IMF said the Fed's rate cuts were justified to avoid recession and noted the European Central Bank had some room to ease. On currencies, the report states the USD remains strong relative to fundamentals and noted the Chinese yuan was "substantially undervalued." The IMF also projects a "challenging year" for Asian economies in 2008, with Japan expected to grow 1.4% in 2008 and 1.5% in 2009, China expected to grow 9.3% in 2008 and 9.5% in 2009, and India to grow 7.9% in 2008 and 8.0% in 2009. Speaking from Beijing, U.S. treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called the IMF forecasts overblown, saying that although the U.S. was merely experiencing a difficult time, he had great confidence in the strength of the country. He pledged the current administration would act flexibly on the recent housing problems but said re-pricing in the sector was inevitable. He also said that Chinese officials needed no warnings of an economic slowdown in the United States. Meanwhile, the annual Japanese monetary base was unchanged in March after growing 0.1% in February. The growth of UKâs broad measure of money supply, the M4, came in at 0.2% in February in month-over-month terms, down from 1.6% in January, according to final figures for the month published by the Bank of England on Wednesday. Bank of England figures suggest February's growth was the lowest monthly growth since June 2005. The figure was revised down from a previous estimate of a 0.3% rise. It brought the year-over-year rate for February down to 12.4%, revised up from the earlier estimate of 12.3% but below Januaryâs 13.3%. M4 lending growth decreased to £17.4 billion in February from £20.6 billion in January. Figures for both months were revised from the previous estimates of £16.4 billion and £21.4 billion respectively. Elsewhere in the data release, the household sectorâs holdings of the M4 saw an increase by £5.5 billion in February as the annual growth rate slowed to 8.6%. Excluding the effects of securitizations, M4 lending to the household sector rose by £10.4 billion with the annual growth rate increasing to 8.6%. Figures released by the Bank of England on Wednesday state that UK housing equity withdrawal in the fourth quarter fell to £7.3 billion, down from an upwardly-revised third quarter figure of £10.8 billion. UK net consumer credit showed a surprise rise over February, coming in at £2.4 billion up from £0.9 billion in January, while net lending on secured dwellings came in at £9.8 billion, up from Januaryâs revised figure of £8.3 billion, according to figures published on Wednesday by the Bank of England. January's net lending had originally been reported at £8.4 billion. Credit card lending rose to £350 million from £120 million, while the "other loans" category grew £2.0 billion in January. Meanwhile, net mortgage lending grew £7.4 billion, the same as in January, but well below the £10.0 billion lending amount in February 2007. On the mortgage approvals front, approved applications slipped to 73,000 from January's 74,000. UK mortgage approvals in February via building societies were valued at £3.411 billion down from £4.296 billion in January, according to figures published on Wednesday by the countryâs Building Societies Association (BSA). Elsewhere in its monthly survey, the BSA said building societies' gross lending for the month came in at £3.86 billion, down on January's £4.10 billion and the £4.2 billion figure recorded over the corresponding month in 2007. Net lending for February stood at £974 million versus £1.43 billion in January and £1.47 billion recorded over the month the year before. The UKâs purchasing managersâ index of the construction sector for March saw its first contraction in over six years, the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) said on Wednesday. CIPS figures reveal that construction PMI fell to a level of 47.2 in March from 52.4 in February, the first contraction since November 2001. The level was well below market expectations for a decline to 51.5. Euro zone PPI rose 0.6% month-over-month in February, in line with expectations, while January's 0.8% increase was revised up to a 0.9% gain. Annual producer prices rose 5.3%, just higher than expectations of a 5.2% increase while January's 4.9% increase was revised up to a 5.0% rise. The European Central Bank allotted â¬25 billion in a six-month refinancing tender at a marginal rate of 4.55%. The USD is lower across the board after opening stronger against majors in early morning trading. It is currently down about four-tenths of a cent to 1.563 against the euro, and down three-tenths of a cent to the loonie at 1.018. ©CEP Newswires - ©CEP News Ltd. 2008.
U/J basically double bottomed and is rising again and is at 102.10 which could be the finish of an ABC up before further descent. "If in doubt stay out" is the moto coming to mind at the moment. It may go up higher to finish larger trend pattern. G/J seems to be confirming that an upwards move is in continuation now at 202.53. It may pullback but higher hights are probable. AUD/USD seem to be finishing an ABC up seen on hourly charts with top as high as 9125ish possibly. Won't know with greater certainty until the time draws nearer however when it tops then a descent further will be expected enough to warrant consideration of an attempted swing trade down from bouncepoint. [/B][/QUOTE] Update on the U/J leaves the Elliot Pattern having gone up in a 12345 set from 101.57 area, top perhaps being 102.80ish near term. The pattern could extend but will probably bounce down a bit first. The climb could potential end there actually unless fundamentals bash Japan somewhat and/or favour US so top on U/J could be near 104.00. I prefer selling down soon though as a large swing down before much more uptrending is increasingly likely in the form of an ABC down. One might get stopped at 0 a time or two trying to find an ideal Swing entry but the RRR whould be good, 100 pips or so. And the AUD/U bounced where expected. 9125ish and now moves back up. EUR/JPU should bounce down at about 160.50 for an ABC down quite a way.
Sold E/J early at 160.45 and it went to 160.75 but my stop was distant in this case. It came down and I took profit at 160.30 area. Going to watch it for a bit now. AUD/USD came back up higher after 35+ pip drop from the 9125 area. I think a re-sell has merit at 9150 area using short stop and targeting 9100 at least. EUR/USD seems high at 5700 and ready for a bounce down. USD/CAD continues to swing lower and seems unfinished the Elliot pattern at 0138.
Re-sold EUR/JPY at 160.72 before spread as it has double topped in what appears to be an ABC up although it's not ideally clear. Antoerh 5 wave set down in large C down is hoped for with target of 160.25 or lower. The EUR/U remains high still but shows a desire to drop.
By Jacob Greber April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Australian retail sales probably rose in February as an employment boom buttressed consumer spending even as the central bank raised interest rates and fuel costs jumped. Sales advanced 0.3 percent from January, when they were unchanged, according to the median estimate of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Bureau of Statistics releases the report at 11:30 a.m. in Sydney tomorrow. Rising wages and the lowest unemployment rate in 33 years have encouraged households to spend. Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens said yesterday four interest-rate increase since August will ``moderate demand'' in the $1 trillion economy, now in its 17th year of expansion. ``Job growth was solid in February, wages were rising, weather conditions improved, and the Australian dollar'' rose to a record, cutting the cost of imported goods, said Helen Kevans, an economist at JPMorgan Australia Ltd. in Sydney. The central bank yesterday kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 7.25 percent after back-to-back increases in February and March to cool the fastest inflation since 1991. The following table shows economists' estimates of the monthly change in retail sales in February from the previous month: News is actually scheduled for tomorrow so question is " is the runup of A/U factoring the above in already?".
U/JPY Sold at 102.28 (looking for a narrow ranging on daily charts, after a downward trend, from upper bollinger to lower bollinger) Stop: 103.55 (edging a bit higher than upper bollinger to use 50-day SMA resistance too) TP: 98.38 (a bit higher than lower bollinger)