It feels great to be back! U/CAD Price right below weekly upper bollinger band, but a strong feeling that finally we are experiencing some kind of correction in commodities super-rally namely oil and metals (grains is still quite akward fundamentally, in my view). I think I'll settle for commodities' direction, even though must say that its a a strong bullish trending set-up in daily charts but with such strong resistance on the weekly (including 50-week SMA) that am reluctant to get in. E/CAD This one looks more straight forward since it is more economically and not so correlated with oil prices. Always liked changes in monetary policy cause they are truly capable of changing trends or violently confirming existing ones. Since CanadaBank started cutting rates and left the door open for further softening I concur with that daily is clearly a bullish trend, but likewise your analysis' conclusion, the weekly seems a bit off track and I too suspect some kind of a retracement or price narrow ranging, since doesn't really appear to have much room on the upside. Plus the fact that oil prices might extend the correction (which though not influencing the relationship between both currencies directly it has an impact on the Canadian economy and therefore indirectly on the pair), I again think that next the bullish trend is to continue. E/USD Big issues to be decided! The weekly chart presents a candlestick hammer pattern very strong on the downside, but in need of further confirmation. It still looks tricky to play this pair on the downside, solely due to the fact that this last 1.5 month rally has created so many support points of significance that smells to epic a struggle to embed in. Also, I was looking for the fundamental anticipation of ECB capitulation on economic growth prospects with the first European rate cut, to go short, but I must admit that market anticipation long before rate cuts is also possible and a very real prospect!
March 25th 2008 Loonie Fundamentally it is a "draw", both economies are highly correlated, both have dim economic growth prospects (including Europe, but ECB is so reluctant to attend economic growth foes). Carrytrade: it doesn't seem like a a smart move, besides any money left in the pair for this strategy will only reinforce technicals direction (USD recovery or narrow ranging at least; monthly charts specially), since the stock market is not yielding like before and past events have taught traders that carrytrade money is mostly invested in stocks, since when stocks were on a bullish trend the correlation was almost perfect, by the minute! Also oil euphoria may be coming to a halt or even reversal: even if supply is strained for the next decades a recession would put that easily into the shelf since likewise most markets demand is "king", and when it falters there is simply no way around price decline (oil is used in so many household products, besides energy use, so called basic consumption goods, true, but still I never underestimate mankind's creativity, or in other words the commodity effect of substitution!). Technically Monthly charts send out a reversal or narrow ranging signal, since I too have been experiencing with some Elliot wave theory, besides with rate cutting it is hard to foresee any bearish trend continuation. The weekly chart showed that fears were warranted, this time, it bounced right off of bollinger upper band and 50-week SMA resistance, postponing any bullish tendency for the momment. Daily chrts, same story as weekly looked promissing but with such significant resistance it eventually capitulated, at least for now. I'm looking to trade this one on a weekly narrow range, maybe slightly bullish. E/USD Glad I heard my own words on Sunday! It bounced right off 20-day SMA, in the Asian session, promising, but on the look out for a double top. Fundamentally it doesn't look that strong anymore (bullish), still in the look out for ECB capitulation, it is no longer underpinned by economic evidence, but by mere divergence of economic policy, ultimately because EU economic growth has peaked, in the views of various respected economists. Technically the monthly charts don't have much room, as prices are still "kissing" the upper bollinger band. The same analysis is valid for weekly charts, in my opinion. Daily charts, here I'm going for the doouble top, plus slow stochastics bullish signal: entered 15425 with target at 158. E/CAD Fundamentally, I think it is a bullish trade up to ECB decision to start cutting rates. Technically, both weekly and monthly charts are off of Bollinger bandsbut still scanning for a daily charts entry point and a more bullish slow stochastics signal, wanting to catch the trends last breath, if there will be one.
Good to have you back. I've been quite distracted this week so didn't post. EUR/GBP seem like it's going to continue upward again, currently at 7908 Sometime next month I think the U/J is going to drop and help unwind carry trades a bit further... Bank of Japan has kept their interest rates so low and the investors who borrow like it due to the fact that anything that yields more than borrowed yen interest does not have to yield much more than 1% to be "interesting". In bubble markets that creates a feeding frenzy it seems and now as more investors scurry to sell off investments to repay their yen-denominated loans, more of a deflationary effect will hit assets across the world. I wonder how long it will be before we are wondering wich currency is the least worst. Japan's economy won't stomach a high JPY to long so another plunge down for USD/JPY in April then perhaps a bottom sideways trend before Japan starts having economic woes that cause U/J to turn back up. Still unclear on timeframes although think U.S interest rate drop forthcoming is pivitol.
Stopped at 0 on 7908 EUR/GBP entry and would have probably re-entered a buy at 7900 area had I been at computer. The pair is being largely driven by the GBP/USD activity at this point so if GBP/U comes down once more before larger correction up and EUR/USD doesn't drop a lot then E/G should hit the higher target area of 7940, currently at 7912 and if it drops back to 05 then I may re-enter a buy. Currently hoping for a bounce on NZD at 7940-50 up for at least 25 pips, maybe more if the3 ABC down is finished and there is a 5 wave set up to at least 8100.
The EUR/GBP trade concept worked, currently the price being 7957 and probably ready to take a rest soon. From 7750 to current price there is a potentially complete pattern up with 12345 waves as seen well using 1hr 30 day charts, the last pulse up having its own 5 wave set, smaller scale. This pattern could morph into an expanded version. I'm not quite ready to think in terms of selling yet as the microwave count up on minute charts seems like it could stretch a bit if it doesn't fail... waiting for the ideal entries is a "cat and mouse" game often but worth the wait I find.
The trend on most pairs seems to be fading for now, and in the case of the U/CAD retraced quite a bit. I'm buying it in mid 50's with upward trend, target above recent high of 0320. G/J seems unfinished for upward move after doing an ABC down on minute charts to 201.25ish EUR/CHF and G/CHF seem near top of impulse waves and near doing an ABC down... or already in process of. G/J bounced up from 201.20ish then came back down through 200.00, a wild pair that one. Almost moves too fast to trade sometimes. CAD/JPY could top around 99.75 later this week and appears doing an ABC down that could be nearly done or expand into a larger move down. Will think of buying if it drops a lot because on larger scale it has a larger ABC down due soon if not happening now then another large move up later.
Stopped out on U/CAD at 0 after it bounced up from about 0250 to 0270 earlier today. I tried a EUR/CAD buy but stepped away from computer without moving stop up to 0 and it came back to hit the stop after giving 30 pips of positive movement. CAD/JPY came up to 99.85 and seems to be doing an ABC down with A down complete and B up finishing, then C down to go.
The EUR/CAD has just dropped further and is nearing an expected bouncepoint of 1.5885-95 with a bounce potential exceeding 75 pips.
Nailed it at 5889 after spread which is actually floating between about 6-11 pips. moving stop close now as price is 5914 and shows interest in climbing more, time will confirm.