I think it's to do with USD index calling for a retrace, it's been showing struggle to take out current highs. There's been no news in Eurozone, only previous succesive attempts to hold support mid 1.34, so why make move now? I think this is just a squeeze, it's too sharp of a rise to mean anything else.
Whatever the reason, at this point of time at 1.3586/88, today's trade is intraday down 148 pips. The martingale piling up ought to be discarded from your system. Drawdown is excessive, whatever capital you employ. Check Neke's thread. edit >> http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=187779&perpage=6&pagenumber=7
Martingale strategy in a Blackjack which offers limited returns is inappropriate. I am trying to get higher payouts than in a Blackjack here. Risk? Hell yes, there is risk. Is there no risk investing into a new venture? Are any returns ever somehow warranted? No they are not. My investment into this is £20k. Method is probably far from perfect, but than again what is perfect? I would like to see you guys make suggestions on improving my volatility analysis/range expansion. That is what this is all about.
LC said that currencies are not as easy as stock markets to manipulate, I see the rationale there. Have a look at last 4 weeks bars, a start to this one doesn't look as bad as just looking at today's intraday candle. Also, check out Monthly chart's 10 & 20 moving averages. Whilst 20 has been declining for a while now, 10 has recently started to bend down. (Optimism is very important )
i'm sort of clueless in bonds and currencies, but the international banks and national governments have been swapping for years
Trading volumes in currency markets can be near 100 times more than in NYSE, how do you control that? Currencies are mainly driven by primary indicators and deals made behind closed doors. Not talking about some intraday oscillations, but overall. Stocks as you know may be manipulated.
TY! I like it a lot, especially the lower the volatility % the better. Handy link. USD/JPY 2% vola, Monthly chart features a triple divergence...contrarian's paradise that is. I bet it fires towards 104 soon (now 88).