JS, I have a suggestion. The indys you have on your posted chart appear to be Bollinger bands and some permutation of MACD. If you look at what the pair does when the bands narrow what the Histogram is doing, you can see that a move lower had a higher statistical possibility than a move higher. We are green, having ridden a bit of the lower breakout of 3590. Sorry if I have the indicators wrong, but whatever they are, they still point statistically down from the chart you posted. The Ever Watching VIPER
I think the problem today was GBP, it's all over the news. Euro on Daily chart is in a bounce formation, which I agree will most likely be short lived. I doubt Euro will bebreaking 1.3440 before some sort of either bounce or basing period.
What do you know, a triple bottom on Daily. We are about to enter range expansion, up or down is irrelevant.
-£3,520 (-220 pips) Now Short 1.3440 £32 per pip Reverse order over 1.3800, not decided where exactly yet. 176 pips required to break even 189 pips required for +2% 201 pips required for +4% Current series of trades is -£5,663 (-807 pips)
Your trade reversal gets triggered by just a few pips at 1.3434/36 ... getting this sinking feeling of the chart being simply out to get you ... this surely can't be true ... but sure feels weird all the same ...
Above post was meant for the reversal triggered today, relating to the previous trade posting below >>> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from JSSPMK: -132 pips (-£1,056) Now Long 1.3660 £16 per pip (Reverse order 1.3440 £32 per pip) 134 pips required to break even 156 pips +2% 181 pips +4% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A dead reversal point is often crossed intraday by price over-runs if based on daily bar high or low points (even with some extra allowance) as my cut-loss points used to be hit in previous stock-trading days. Perhaps a dynamic reversal point could be looked into, e.g. when price crosses the xx-MA in the x-hour chart by xx bars or by xx pips without crossing back ..... this is one of the tactics I use for intraday swing trades except my time frame is much shorter at x-min instead of x-hour. Of course the "xx" has to be worked out according to your own personal trading charecteristics.
Breakout traders can get "raped" by congestion periods. That's why I did say that volatility analysis do have to be present. Obviously I am still stuck within congestion zone. Mid 1.34s keep providing bounces. Why? Who knows. I don't. Weekly bars for the last 3 weeks do keep putting in lower highs whilst bouncing of same mid 1.34 zone. Technically that is a descending triangle paired with predominant bear trend ought to send EUR lower towards next support. But as we all know technical patterns can be a 50/50 expectancy. Daily USD chart is a tad toppy ImPO. I do see & sense a breakout just around the corner, which way it fires first? Overall EUR is bearish, but I smell a bounce. Should I trust my gut or go with the overall trend? This strategy attempts to go with price, no matter which direction.
JS, in hindsight, maybe you should have stayed with your original reverse #. It may be wise at this time to reassess your methodology, and possibly put together some kind of filter to keep you from continuing to sell bottoms and buy tops. This might include studies in different time frames, momentum indicators, and possibly some type of oscillator to let you see oversold/overbought more clearly. Just a suggestion The Ever Hating To See A Fellow Trader In The Red VIPER
Hindsight is a wonderful thing TY! I did mention that Daily is in bounce mode. Here is the problem - congestion. February Lo was tagged this morning, a bounce was pretty likely, what was also pretty likely is a drop. It was a 50/50 expectancy ImPO. How do you measure 50/50 apart from not doing anything at all? I see myself waiting out this bounce, staying Short & banking on continuation of the trend. I need range expansion