It's impossible to say whether it's you or it's the equity market in general that's to blame. However, I'd say the vast majority agree that right now trading stock index futures is tough. First of all the vix is 10. I think the main problem though is the complete lack of follow-through in the indices. Take a look at a chart of the russell2k from the last 2 weeks. it just bounces up and down 10-12 points per move and repeats. Tough to swing trade from a trend following perspective! I know thunder said he wasn't receptive to suggestions (lol) but if anyone is having similar problems; I can give you something that helped me. (I trade es, er2 and nq - average trade lasts about an hour but could be anywhere from 15 min to all day). I think you have to just put out resting orders and hope you can sell into an upspike or buy the downspike and just be content with what you get if you get lifted/hit. If I were playing the long side - I would look for a basing pattern - perhaps a saucer type formation forming - then have an idea in my head about how far it should run up and put my sell order there - as soon as I buy. In a normal, volatile market, I would just watch the action to decide when to get out. So, if i bought a saucer, and prices rallied, I would just wait until it look like we were hitting resistance, or an island top, or some other type of topping pattern formed, then as soon as i mentally recognized it, i would sell at whatever the current bid was. You can't really do that well lately because you're not getting great signals that moves are ending/reversing.
I'm sure if I wasn't spending as much time with other markets I'll be trading ES more often. However, if I get a trade signal in ES and in a different trading instrument at the same time... More often than not I'll take the trade in the other trading instrument (NQ, YM, ER2, EuroFX, DAX, FTSE-100 or CAC-40). As to which is more tradable... I think ER2 is more suitable for my trade methodology for the past few trading days. However, I'm not fixated on ER2 and will trade the others if I get a trade signal in them when ER2 has no trade signals. Simply, I'm just going with whatever the market shows me. Summer trading is usually when I take a lot of personal time off from the markets and/or take extended breaks during the trading day. In fact, my toddler loves this time of year because we play more often. My biggest excitement today was teaching and watching the toddler (2 1/2 years old) throw the football (half the size of an NFL football) with a spiral about 7 yards a few times. Missed a few trade signals but worth it. I won't exactly be on all full pistons until late August when my intensity picks up in my trading. NihabaAshi
I appreciate the input. Not that I am not receptive to suggestions, just that this was not the purpose of this particular thread. Please note that I have put in a lot of time and effort into the method I currently use, it has otherwise served me well, and I am not looking to change it at the drop of a hat. Please let me restate that I was just curious to know how other people were doing presently trading ES. Yes, the topic is narrow, but it helps keep us focused.
From Market Wizards page 18: Interviewer: Did you ever think of just giving up on trading? Trader: I would sometimes think that maybe I ought to stop trading because it was very painful to keep losing. In "Fiddler on the Roof", there is a scene where the lead looks up and talks to God. I would look up and say, "Am I really that stupid?" And I seemed to hear a clear answer saying, "No, you are not stupid. You just have to keep at it." So I did. (Stephen Szpak)
Ditch is right on! today for instance we had "auto-buy" programs running from about 2:00 pm eastern time until close at various times and price levels-------these have been in heavy use the last 9 to 10 weeks {thank your friendly institutional trading for this}. For every seller that hits an "auto-buy" order is then executed for the exact same size. The selling triggers the "auto-buy" system to gobble up the sell pressure during clear breakouts and "hold" price levels {no decent pullbacks, just up and away}. When I see these programs activate from volume filters, I enter long trades that are just like stepping onto the up escalator {this has been going on for about 9 to 10 weeks solid now}. today I entered longs at 1237 for the es when I saw these "auto-buys" starting to activate---------it worked as they broke through 1237.50 on up to the 40's {with no pullbacks of any significance all the way to close). yes the black boxes are having an affect on the markets for sure.
here you go--------- http://www.trademavenllc.com/tm_pages/professional.html look at the institutional volume filter in the lower left of this link. and also what I see on the time and sales from esignal.
I am no daytrader, but a position trader. I have done well this summer placing limit orders at the ends of a projected daily range, and selling near-term ES options against a core long position. I am bullish, as I think the market is still climbing its wall of worry. I used to daytrade but gave it up two years ago: too much work chasing too little potential profit. Sounds like little has changed.
First let me say that I noted that you said "suggestions were not the purpose of this thread". Yet you ask about others results as if others are using the same method. Because let's face it...there IS a method right now that is working fine. It just isn't your method, or perhaps some of the other respondents to this thread. If you were generally a guy who bought strength, sold weakness, the last several weeks has had to be frustrating and unprofitable. If you were a guy who chased...ditto. If you were a guy who bought/sold retracements that probably has been frustrating as well...because we seem to be moving in a range. Moving averages intraday? Same thing...probably not working well. The fact that anyone has a method that has worked in the past is irrelevant to Ms Market. She will simply do as she does, with no mind at all about your method. Whether this is a function of the summer doldrums...perhaps. Clearly it is reflecting the low VIX. (Or is the VIX reflecting the lower volatility). Just an observation though: what is working very well right now is stock selection. Some stocks have been making very nice moves in this earnings period. So if you felt you had to focus on one thing, it has been to your detriment. Perhaps the indexes are over focused right now...I hope not, but perhaps they are. We'll see in another month or so as the summer winds to an end. OldTrader