NN Be good, Sherlock Sherlock Holmes to Dr. Watson: "You see, but do not observe. The distinction is clear. For instance you have frequently seen the steps which lead up from the hall to this room." "Frequently." "How often?" "Well, some hundreds of times." "Then how many (steps) are there?" "How many? I don't know." "Quite so!. You have not observed. And yet you have seen. That is just my point."
misunderstanding or understanding? Jack, getting back to another thread where we crossed paths the other day. I think that you are missing lots of opportunities with using volume and / or using a volatility qualifier: these filters limit your opportunities a lot. Oh yeah, I did check investigate volume and initially I did use it. same applies to volatility. But then I found a better way. ( But using volume and volatility is easier for the majority to get to a stage where they are starting to see consistently some positive results .......What I am saying is: what I do is not for everyone. I am sure that if I would explain it to you (but I am not) you would understand.... ) Price alone is sufficient to determine if you want to be long, be short, stay out, average in, average out, pyramid in, all out, slow down (take off) at a risk point, put full back on after the risk point. And this all while in the trade without the need for "adjusting" (through backtesting or any other way) the lengths of my "indicators". Plus the indicators tells me which is the most efficient timeframe to trade. Some markets are better on 720 minutes and 815 ticks, others are better at 4075, 815 or 163 ticks and again others I like to have an 33 / 165 / 825 tick chart up. Some require only one chart to trade, other require two charts with the lower timeframe to pinpoint the entry and / or exit. And then I may start the "trading day" at another time than that the real "day / session" is (offsetting the start / end etc) and I think that not many even have looked at what their results would be if they did this. Most would not even know how to go about it. My primary indicator took 18 months to come to completion (after I got the idea) and learning all the ins and outs of it. And before I forget: It took me quite some hard work (two years) to get to the stage of "jumping timeframes" after I read some of your postings. PS. You know what the beauty is? I can trade all these timeframes in the same way. From scalping to trading positions that last weeks. No diff. I have been having too much time this week on my hands but next week it is back to "hard labour" (trading is hard work, yeah...NOT). (have not heard about any more downtime and problems with my broker's software and datafeed, he he) I don't expect that I'll be posting a lot next week. GTTY Sherlock
And not to forget morse (just the carrier). Do you know morse? Up to 35 words / min with a straight key (prior to PC's) and using 5 W and a simple dipole to work 100 countries? Something else that is obsolete now. But the ones that give the best signals are SSB and DSB. I like DSB best for a number of reasons but the most important one is that if there is interference than you can switch to SSB and use one of the two sidebands. (redundancy built in, half the signal is sufficient to keep on going) Never cared much for PLL, too much spurious crap. Oh, those were them days (showing my age now). Sherlock
There is a way to use cycles profitably but it's not what people typically envision when they hear "cycles". If you can determine the type of market movement you're in (e.g. sideways, trending, range bound, "chop" -- there are many nuances) you can then use cycle analysis to buy low bounces and sell high bounces. But you have to account for cycle translation. If you're looking at a trending or sideways with up bias, you won't see pretty sine waves. A cycle turn may be nothing more than a couple down bars and the market takes off. The key is to know when to use cycle analysis, and then you need the good stuff. No fourier transforms, no basic oscillators. There is lots being done with wavelets that are still cutting edge. The myth is that ppl think cycles are some sort of predictor or holy grail -- proper use of cycles is to know when to use them, and in the end all they really are is a sophisticated overbought/oversold indicator with a time window as part of the trigger. And before you ask, yes, I know from personal experience, but it ain't easy. I gave you a glimpse, now you have to do the hard work.
TokyoTrader, what is clear is that you need to conduct your own work/research in this area, and determine for yourself whether any of this is useful to you. In the end you might be surprised that you don't end up using what you started seeking - but the work allowed you to digress to an area that is useful, to you. Maybe. The last thing you want to be is an in-duh-vidual with his head stuck so far up his arse that you are unwilling to test things out for yourself, perhaps influenced by some shite dribbled by a 1-post noob or a 1000+ post ET wanker. Best of luck to you. PS. FWIW, I do not use cycles, but don't let that stop you.
Looks like the world of cycles is much deeper than I expected. A quick search on the net of wavelets led me to this website: http://www.bearcave.com/misl/misl_tech/wavelets/haar.html (hope it's ok to post the link) So far I'm finding it a very good introductory site to wavelets and how they can be applied to the markets. It does a good job for someone who has limited background in calculus and advanced mathematics. I'll comment more later on the replies, gotta go for now. Thanks.
The single wire of the telegraph running from Whitehorse to Dawson (almost 500 miles) runs on the right bank looking downstream. You can imagine the news, mountie travails and steamboat schedules all running on the line during the gold rush. I have a couple of anodes from broken glass batteries I picked up along the way. I learned the code by making a code card with the dots on the left and the dashes on the right. Four levels on the card. He used letter frequency of use as the code selection criteria. His home was in Cherry Valley, NY. My great aunt leased then bought it wooden circuit boards and stacks of paintings et al. Presently, my son chooses to live there. Look up W2VJA......lol. I don't know what PLL is. The deep down break through for making money is that small solitary notion that making money requires change. Have to hold to get the change. Have to reverse to stay on the right side of the market. Do the hold and reverse where the highest money velocity is without taking any breaks. Or for long trading only do Xovers based on exiting decreasing money velocity to go into increasing money velocity. (the best use of money theorem). Synthesizing harmonics on a carrier starts so far away from where money is made, that most people can't back into the carrier properly. It is so strange how a path through analogy after analogy is required to get to the significance of market sequences and causal relations. Inductance, capacitance, resistance in a dynamic realm that lets energy move among fields Designing filters for periodic wave forms is something else. When the waveforms are modulated in three ways the impedance is too, it turns out. for the markets, I started digitally in 1957 and found that thinking of just change to make money had to be the BASE. Time rate of change. So I always worked with derivatives of price and the counterpoint of time rate of change of volume. Time chopping was done daily then. Delta. Delta. As you found out, all operational principles work in any time chopping mode. Any fractal or tickometer collection setting. The tickometer never appealed to me however. I'll tell you though, Interlacing 1/2 period (let it go at just the time chopping frequency) offset data feeds is something else. My shift from Dumont 'scopes to the Techtronix dc scopes that wwere interlaced was such an impacting thing. Not wanting to see that dull streak in market data, figuratively speaking, was what was on my mind. To see a chart forming 15 minutes ahead of the market and to see the zone get "molded" into the price "curve" really made my day. Picture the culminating event as something like SEC citations for cheating. They did detection by after the fact broker location and account time of trade analysis. I had multiple accounts by then. What we were looking at was price forming up in the space to the right of the active bar. Visualize narrow vertical rectangles of two alternating colors where their individual length (volatility) was adjusted periodically and and the same time they were moving into their final positon through vertical slippage (pace adjustments) for relative alignment purposes. So today we have all the data we want in any form we want. Going minimalist is the groove. The main signal and corroberation. Too bad for new people coming into trading they will never get exposed to the underlying gismos that make it so reliable and solid. The anomoly generation has arrived.
PLL - Phase Locked Loop But just like fourier etc. it needs time to "lock in". When sunspots, atmospheric disturbances, dusk or dawn increase / decrease activity then the tickometer comes into its own. Without the tickometer it will get difficult to measure the gaussian distribrution of the bellcurve and where ones location within that window is. And without knowing it becomes difficult to maximise the distance that one is capable of covering within the window of opportunity. Yes one can get by using a timeometer only because dawn and dusk are measureable with such an instrument. But then the opportunities due to atmospheric disturbances and periods of high sunspot activity are being missed and may even catch one unawares leading one open to the damage these natural phenonema can cause. The younger generation needs a calculator to give you change in the supermarket. More and more they rely on technology and the majority seem to have lost the ability to reason / think. They have gone into symbiosis with the computer and unfortunately when the computer falters they won't know what to do. This was very visible with the Y2K issue (of which another form may raise its ugly head again sometime in 203? because of some timekeeping mechanism) when the programs that were written in COBOL, ALGOL and Fortran had its challenges to be transformed. The business elders that had the intimate knowledge about the processes automated had long gone to either other shores or were enjoying the evening light and were not available for consultation. In those cases that these persons could be tracked down and made available their knowledge had gone by the wayside due to inactivity of some grey matter. This is the same with what we can see with the quality of the products produced around us. Products are being hailed as wonderful and exemplary where our fathers would have rejected those as being of substandard quality. But the public gets always what it wants: the lowest possible (passable) quality. The following statement of Jessie Livermoore is even more true today than it was in his days: ....But the average man doesn't want to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not want to work. He doesn't even wish to have to think. It is too much bother to have to count the money that he picks up from the ground." (page 84 / Chapter VII) Sherlock
S&P cash on 30 minute timeframe. Anchored from last Monday's opening, projected cycles shown in purple. I will try using the same settings for this upcoming Monday's open and see how the projection turns out vs. actual.