those big guys are always taking advantage of me. They make the market go real low so it looks like a good place to buy, and then after I buy, they make it go really low. And they don't even need the money. So then once it went real low, so I sold, but I guess they were busy taking advantage of some other little guy, because then it went right back up. And I needed the money! I'm gonna go trade stocks. How much can you make on a hundred shares?
Anybody who thinks he consistently loses money in ANY LIQUID MARKET because he is being taken advantage of by others has no freaking clue what trading is all about.
Any retail trader that thinks they are on a level playing field with the pro's, has no freaking clue what trading is all about. That's not to say a retail trader cannot be profitable, I'm sure many are. That's also not saying that there's a conspiracy to take advantage of retail traders; I'm sure there isn't. Do I blame losses on thinking that I'm somehow being taken advantage of? Hell no. Do I think my edge can be more favorable trading as a pro? Hell yes.
For some strange reason, in which I can't understand, many underestimate how much commissions affects an accounts bottom line. The math has been done, I don't know how much of a better picture needs to be painted.
Cesko-- I think we're mixing a batch of apples and oranges here. I don't think being a pro can make you a better trader per se, but I do think it can have a positive effect on your bottom line. Whether you win or lose is beside the point, it's how much more you get to keep while you're doing it.
what's a pro??? a commerical? a member? who cares??? there's plenty of room for us small retail traders (and if you're retail, by definition you're small)..........just gotta know where your advantages lie......and figuring that out is part of the learning......... here's where the advantages are NOT............. (1) it ain't in the commissions.......retail gets screwed there....... (2) it ain't in getting a whiff of the order flow.........who's gonna tell YOU!? so right off the bat a retail trader should know that playing for a few ticks over and over is a stupid proposition........he's gonna pay an artificially high commission rate, much higher than what the "pros" pay and there's no EFFECTIVE way to determine if a big order is about to hit the market so he can front run it......... i know, i know.....you think you can scope out the order flow by listening to a squawk or watching the depth of bids and asks........hey, i'm not here to spoil your fantasy so i won't get into it.......... but i will say this: the retail trader can play the direction.........he has to KNOW that markets trend..........he has to know all he can about how trends begin, continue and end......... this is not an easy thing to know, but this is an area of advantage for the retail trader.......it's an area of advantage because it is hard.....it takes work and time and experience in the form of losses.......things most people don't want to put up with, especially if there's an easier way to make money by merely being a member in a system that exists to make advantages for its membership.........and because it's hard, only a small percentage can do it, which makes it a natural advantage....... so instead of crying about the advantages of the "pros", KNOW that the markets trend......start out by DEFINING what a trend is for you.......then study price movements in terms of that trend.....every technical indicator or theory you come across, think of them in relation to that trend........train your mind to control your emotions so that you can see that trend.......don't use your mind to ask stupid questions like "are markets random?" when you KNOW they trend........well, you get my drift........ and pick your spots........this is a great advantage for the retail trader.....he doesn't have to trade......he can sit and wait for the BEST opportunities, not any opportunity....... and you don't need much........the retail trader can take an insignificant portion of the massive amount of money flowing daily to make a good living.........a couple of drops from the Amazon is all it takes
pits. In early 2000, the full sized S&P contract traded 107,000 contracts daily compared to the emini at 67,000. In July 2002, the full sized S&P contract traded 91,000, and the emini...... 375,000. I think the pit is nearly finished with the growth in the emini contracts. I do not think you are at any disadvantage trading soley with the eminis..give'em a try.
Having traded the mini's since the beginning of 1999, there are a few observations I have made about the "action" in this contract...First, there is something to be said about the fact that the big contract is definitely playing second fiddle to the mini's...This alone has changed the action to some extent as the market does not "hold" as much at one level as it used to...There appear to be less participants in the electronic markets willing to "defend" a territory for any significant amount of time...This only adds to the volatility caused by program trading, index arbing, pit arbing, etc, etc... It has become a well publicized fact in recent months that program trading is accounting for nearly half of the volume in the index futures now...This adds a certain amount of "unpredictability" to the shortest time frames as programs can either come in and put in an artificial bid or offer for 1 minute, 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 30 minutes, etc ,etc...No one can predict the duration of these programs, nor the extent of the swings that will be generated by them... Certainly, support and resistance still reign supreme...But it is the "in between", the way action osciallates between the critical S/R levels that has changed, imho...After trading this thing for a long enough time, you tend to pick up the "dance" of this market, and I would definitely say that aside from the increase in programs, the increase in electronic trading, all of this has changed one specific feature of these markets, namely the "velocity" of the market...