why stop at 13, you can use multiple MAs to create fishnet effect http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=22967&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
The application of moving averages to trading is at least 60 years old, allegedly derived from the first attempts at military target tracking estimation using radar. Military signal estimation subsequently became extremely sophisticated, to the point of achieving theoretical-best performance over 30 years ago, yet traders still use those primitive MAs. Evidence IMO supporting how feeble minded most traders are, always seeking and using the simplest tools. EVERY numerical manipulation of price is an estimator, and in the theoretical sense the BEST estimator for SOME sets of conditions. But absent this recognition and the analysis to determine the existence of those conditions, EVERY fixed indicator is doomed to suboptimality. There is a universe of filters in the literature much better suited to price estimation than MAs.
======================= True , if perhaps used in a strict mechanical sense; MA USED IN a discretionary sense, with years of experience, are '' much better''
And it sounds like a small difference but it can be a big improvement; watch ,RECORD price before MA. Not moving averages then price; price first then ma with discretion in ES e mini
***DISCLAIMER*** In the statement below I am NOT saying that A person can't make money discretionary trading with "squiggly" lines. ************************************************************************** I would tend to disagree that "trading E-minis using m/a's" is a route to profitability. If you have a system that is based on a squiggly line comprised of a very specific list of rules for EVERY scenario possible, you may have a chance (but very low at that). I come from the view that if you can't account for all scenarios possible then you are left with an extremely low probability method (I call these....methods to frustration road). Most traders build methods that in the end RELY on the "discretionary" capabilities of that trader....that is setting yourself up for frustration road imo.
here's a screen shot. Guess my "not-so-secret" indicators. The more you get used to how the Price action interact with the moving averages, the easier it becomes to decide whether you go long short or stand aside. Maybe it is 60y.o. like it was written sooner but money is made in trends. So if you can find something that will keep you in trends and avoid the choppy go-nowhere period you're ahead. It gets choppy when most moving averages (except the longest period) get all mixed up.
I wonder if you have an indicator that tells you where the prices of the stock is going to be in the future. Just as one knows not where the trend is heading in the future, one can only figure prices to keep going in the same direction, by momentum, and cut losses when the trend in the movement of prices is against you. http://www.seykota.com/tribe/TSP/EA/Exponential/index.htm http://www.seykota.com/tribe/TSP/EA/Compare/index.htm I suppose it depends on the time constant of the moving average you are using. If you use a moving average with a larger time constant, you will get into the game later than if you use a shorter time constant. On the other hand, if you use a short time constant, you are likely to experience more whipsaws. Commissions and slippage are more of a concern if you compare long term traders to short term traders, and not when you are comparing between traders who use different indicators.
Looks like he has been playing on the Ensign demo. Some folks just get so carried away with indicators you cant even see the price bars, its like they are trying to paint a picture, all the pretty colors.