Lets try another position for a moment here! QQQ @ 37.80; Long 2x Call Jun 04 38.00 @ 2.21 Long 2x Put Jun 04 38.00 @ 2.26 Short 1x Call Feb 04 38.00 @ 0.99 Short 1x Put Feb 04 38.00 @ 1.09 Idea of the trade? If it sits still (come on, we are talking QQQ here), I collect frontmonth timepremium faster then the backmonth runs out. If it moves fiery, the double backmonth will outrun the single frontmonth, and money should come in. Lets see what happens. Tiki
Holy crap. RD made a 'mistake' in their estimated reserves, a 4 bil. barrel mistake. RD trading at 38.4 = -3.02, almost - 10%!!! The position takes it nicely I must say. Total pos. value -132 Tiki
As tomorrow is the expiration date of the january contract, I took out the frontmonth shorts on the option positions; Van der Moolen; buyback jan7put for 70 euro's. expecting Jan7call to expire worthless (+48eur) and the 6put&8call to expire worthless, too (-13&-20eur). The fly was a nosuccess this month, seeing middle strike at 7 & expiration at estimated 6.30. 5/6/6/7 april wrangle is neutral at this moment & in loss due to big falling of vol. Royal Dutch; buyback jan40put for 235 euro's. expecting jan40call to expire worthless (+40eur), the 38put to expire high as possible (a little sinking would be nice tomorrow, though my gut tells me we will expire at 38), 42call worthless (-40?&-15) 36/38/38/40 wrangle; we are in the 'shit' zone just as with van der moolen. I will see it through one more month, or maybe eliminate even sooner. Philips; buyback jan24call for 60 euro's. expecting jan24put to expire worthless (+65) expecting the out put&call to expire worthless, too (-30&-60). Slightly better then breakeven on this one. 22/24/24/26 wrangle is neutral. Aegon; buyback jan12call for 90 euro's. Expecting jan12put to expire worthless (+65), expecting jan11put to expire worthless (-33) and jan13call is dubious, aegon was really pushing it today but closed 12.75 (+.34) AGN 11/12/12/13 wrangle @ financial breakeven. ============================================= Now for the rest of em; HGM will give out new shares this month, all good all fine. Company NOT bankrupt and we like it like that (since we are long the 2005calls); DTE @ 15.67, jun14 straddle showing 40 euros profit, looking to lock-in with jan16 puts when they sell under 1euro, QQQ long jun38 straddlex2 & short feb38straddlex1 showing a profit of 34 bucks. AEXL apr30/32/32/34 wrangle starting to show profits now the AEX is over 350. Lets see if they can hold it Ha! I gotta admit this is tougher then I thought. However, own experience (which im building at a nice speed for sure) and discussions about positions or advice people gave me are really helping me a lot (or so I feel.) cheers, Tiki
Bough one Put DTE Jun04 16.00 for 0.98. Total DTE position: 1x Call DTE Jun04 14.00 1x Put DTE Jun04 14.00 1x Put DTE Jun04 16.00 Total investment: 2.98 Minimum profit: 2.00 Max loss: 0.98 Tiki
Took off the RD position; this is going nowhere soon and I dont want to pay up the chop (I really already did for a big part), Took off Philips position; Reduced AGN to 2x long call 13 apr. Current positions: 2x AGN C 13.00 Apr04 (small loss) (AGN @ 12.35) 2x HGM C 0.88 (mult. 136) Okt05 (small profit - HGM rocketing right now - HGM@1.88) 1x DTE C 14.00 Jun04 1x DTE P 14.00 Jun04 1x DTE P 16.00 Jun04 (position has ok profit) (DTE @ 16.09, looking for it to whipsaw back or move up a little (add to puts) and then whipsaw back) 2x QQQ C 38.00 Jun04 2x QQQ P 38.00 Jun04 -1x QQQ C 38.00 Feb04 -1x QQQ P 38.00 Feb04 (position has ok profit) (QQQ@37.10, doesnt really matter this one seems OK in most situations) 1x Wrangle 30/32/34 AEXL Apr04 (AEXL@35.5 and outlook is up) 1x Wrangle 5/6/7 MOO Apr04 (MOO@7.05 .. sec audit rumours.. i'd rather keep this one on because it feels to me like it could explode (or sit still for 3 months.. thats the risk)) Thats the positions, expect more to come... Tiki
today I will be adding money the account with about â¬2000, basically to do more of the same. On the current positions: AEXL, MOO (plain wrangles) & Aegon (long calls apr04) are pushing my nerves. its real hard for me to see 'nothing' happen to the underlying and basically see the premium die. AEX is playing in the 350-355 zone .. just about b/e level on the upside of the wrangle (at this moment!), MOO @ 7.15 now, not even at b/e yet, and Aegon fell back to 12.00.. not so good. These are the things that are tearing me apart; what do I do now, do I put off the aegon 13 calls? 12 is a long way from 13 and the movement last weeks wasnt too convincing. On the other hand, April is still 2 1/2 months away and 5% in 21/2 months is 'only' 0.1% a day.. so the goal in terms of time isnt too high. Besides that, the salvage value is only 30⬠a call at this time. Same goes for MOO & Aexl.. they have arrived at points where the salvage value really isnt much, and, for the position, actually a good deal (as in: "get 100 bucks or keep the position going.", i'd definately let the positions roll). Point is I shouldnt have allowed them to get there, with nada salvage value. Managing this is something I dont quite do right yet (appareantly!). If someone wants to share his ideas or spill his thoughts about this, please do post them! On to the rest of the positions; Hagemeyer okt05 looking fine, premium is low (DITM Far out call) and calls are noting about b/e now. The rescue of the company seems to have gone initially ok and the main stakeholder in this baby now seems to be ABN AMRO, no fools, i'd say No managing problems here, almost no premium to lose & long term play. As long as they dont go broke, im fine Deutsche telecom, JUN C 14 & P 14 + 16, also looking fine, showing â¬50 profit with about â¬150 in premiums left in the options. DTE itself pulling back from a good buildup to 16 the last months, now at 15.88. Ideally it would rip back HARD now to make optimal use of the now bear-favored position. This is one im wondering about now, too: How far will I allow premium to leak out of the position? When to take profits? I dont have a plan for it because I lack the experience to make a good judge ment about it, again, if you have idea's & suggestions, lets see em! QQQ, JUN C&P38 +2, FEB C&P38 -1 , looking good, +64 for the position, this one (ratio'd calendar) is actually clear to me, I let em run till last week of frontmonth so much for the overview. New positions will be taken during expiration week or the week after, all advice & comments about the management of current trades and trade liquidation are welcome. Tiki
Tiki, What exactly are you trying to do here? How did you select the stocks for these positions? One of the things you have to do when your trading options is always have the plan ready before you initiate the trade. You should know exactly where your out is on every trade and exactly where your hedge points are. If you don't and wait around for something to happen, more often then not, nothing will. Btw, one of the best way to hedge your positions is through vertical spreads. It's really easy to look where the risk is in your position and add a vertical to reduce that risk. Also, if you have short gamma, don't be afraid to buy some stock or sell some to stay ahead of the curve. Good luck!