Here's my 2 cents: You're entering at levels a day trader would enter, but not exiting when the intraday setup degrades. You went long on a pullback in an uptrend, but when that consolidation low from where you went long broke downside, a day trader would either have bailed on the break for a few ticks loss or tried to exit break even with a limit order. If you're looking for a swing trade entry in an uptrend you'd want to buy the ES on a pullback to the 20EMA and if that breaks down, then the 50EMA, and if that breaks down then the LTL. At some point you'll catch the next wave up. But buying the ES at highs (at a long term upper channel line) for a swing only makes sense if you expect the breakout level to hold as support, IMHO.
This is really good. But as you know, pretty much everything i do is buying on (relative) highs and selling on (relative) lows. Sort of ingrained in me over 14 years, hard to change.
Even as a swing trader, this can work out fine in a strong trend (like the ES has been in), but there needs to be a pullback first to flush out the speculators and draw in the counter-trend traders. When you bought near the highs today, price already had run up through the 74.50 high from last week's pullback and this morning was near an upper channel. Like with CL as a day trader, if I'm not positioned during a pullback in a trend, I'm quite content to buy a new high or sell a new low, but price has to come from a technical S/R level or I won't trade the pure breakout. Either way, I then expect that breakout level to hold as new S/R in the trend or I'll take the small loss. I think that concept of trading new highs/lows only after price has pulled back to a reasonable technical S/R level might make all the difference for you. I suggest you analyze your trades and see if that would've helped
Many thanks for this. I will have a look, but it would change my methodology quite a bit. Also, that ES trade is but one trade out of thousands. Perhaps we are over focusing on that, was only 6 points loss after all?
Without knowing what it is your doing and you trading several markets at once? and you are trading with/against the trend, but coffee in BIG downtrend? Has this method worked for you in past years and which ones? Reason I ask, depending on changes of overall market volatility, some methods only work in one type of environment. How many years had you backtested? What other people do makes little difference to me, markets are never wrong, and I never try to beat the market. If you are losing 70% of the time, how about hedging with options? Are you looking to stay in more than minutes/hours/days?
Wake up V this is where you might want to take a long shot on the Nikkei. Only problem is the yen looks iffy and could be bouncing. Shit just buy both. If I can formulate a coherent plan I will put the plan in action no matter what it is. Right now I'm loving the aussie and hating the euro. I would be interested in your interpretation of these 4 hour charts.
On the use of options: is it correct if one were to think that the underlying idea/principle here is that the option can decrease the losses more than it can decrease the profits so that each unit of dollar loss brings in more dollars in profit compared to without options?