All bvsn questions, please see http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=2074 I'd like to keep candletrader's excellent thread on topic. Thankyou.
In my opinion, there is no need to respond to known trouble-makers, even if they give an illusion of being serious. As Scalper Jake so eloquently put things in the title of one of his threads: "Civility is a subtle conqueror"
Praetorian, RTharp and others, Comments on your Great New Pattern are very welcome here. It seems to me that there is often a volume spike associated with this strategy, giving rise to sustainable intraday trends and/or capitulatory price behaviour. Such a technique is most definitely of value in an otherwise low volume market environment, so comments on it are very welcome in this general thread on Trading Conditions.
Day Trading Takes a Dive In crummy markets and hot weather, players head to the beach The Investment Dealers' Digest : IDD; New York; Aug 20, 2001; Laura Santini (laura.santini@tfn.com); ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Abstract: Day-trading volume - once a stalwart of the ailing trading environment - has begun showing signs of weakening, with many frustrated traders opting to take a few months off until business picks up again. With Nasdaq volume steadily declining, day-trading opportunities have become increasingly rare. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Full Text: Copyright Thomson Financial Services Inc. Aug 20, 2001 Day-trading volume-once a stalwart of the ailing trading environment-has begun showing signs of weakening, with many frustrated traders opting to take a few months off until business picks up again. "For the five or six months that retail volume dropped off, day- trading volume was still there," said Barry Smith, director of sales and marketing for Watcher Technologies, a wholly owned subsidiary of Datek Online Holdings Corp. Watcher, like other so-called direct access shops, provides day-traders with the sophisticated systems they need to gain entry to real-time stock quotes and order execution. With Nasdaq volume steadily declining, day-trading opportunities have become increasingly rare. Last Wednesday, for example, Nasdaq traded 1.46 billion shares, more than 50% lower than its 52-week volume high of 3 billion shares. Similarly, about one billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange the same day, also less than half of that market's 52-week high of 2.13 billion shares, according to Yahoo! Finance. Charles Schwab Corp., one barometer of the retail market, has been reporting steady drops in volume every month for June, July and August. All that means many of the day traders who continued raking profits amid a decline in retail online volume are finding it increasingly tough to turn a profit these days. "Now we are hearing from our clients (mainly day traders) that they want to take the summer or one month off, which perpetuates the problem," Watcher Technologies' Smith lamented. At Terra Nova Trading LLC in Chicago, day traders are executing fewer shares per order, said Peter Stolcers, director of marketing. Although comprehensive volume data for just day traders could not be gleaned by press time, anecdotal evidence suggests volumes may have plunged as much as 50% from early July, according to executives at direct access firms. What is unclear to these executives is whether the situation will reverse itself once summer is over. Joe Cammarata, founder of direct access firm Sonic Trading LLC, said volume typically slows down during the summer's popular vacation months but that this is the worst decline he's ever seen. "A lot of people are getting out [of day-trading]," he said. Cammarata and other executives attribute the suffering of day- trading volumes to low volume in the overall stock market, which has made it increasingly tough for previous tried-and-true day-trading strategies to remain profitable. For instance, day traders routinely rely on high-speed technology to beat market makers on stock prices. Take a situation in which a market maker is offering to purchase shares at, say, $14.50. A day- trader might bid 1/256th of a penny ($.0039) higher through a faster electronic trading system, such as an ECN, grabbing the shares ahead of the market maker. Last week, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. downgraded direct access firm A.B. Watley Group Inc. because of concerns over cash flow at the company and weaker-than-expected earnings. On the bright side, Keefe Bruyette analyst Russell Keene noted in his report that he believes long-term prospects of direct access technology remain positive. Indeed, last year online firms were scrambling to add direct access technology, either through acquisitions or joint ventures, so they could compete for intense day-trading volume (IDD, 10/9/2000). That technology, it appears, is still attractive. T.D. Waterhouse Group Inc. said Thursday it would buy direct access firm R.J. Thompson Holdings for an undisclosed sum. ----------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday 4th September 2001 The new trading year began today, and volume was noticeably higher. Today produced at the very least three tradeable opportunities based on the futures. The first opportunity was as a result of the promising NAPM economic figures that were released at 10am today. The second opportunity was a trend play through the mid-day. The third opportunity was an end of day market breakdown. My pictorial commentary can be found at: www.geocities.com/rangecontraction/sep4.html Going forward, we would be looking for a continued confirmation of increased volume, resulting in larger range days on the futures and hence on those constituents of the stockmarket that are sensitive to the futures. A brief look at a daily chart of the Nasdaq would suggest that we may still be on course to test the April lows. If so, a shorting strategy would probably be the most used approach for the next little while. [For people with less than $25k (and who therefore cannot short), they may be able to play tradeable bounces for scalps within downtrends ... 1min charts would be useful for this approach. As will eventually become evident, a handful of brokers will allow long side daytrading in cash accounts - Datek is one, for example].
An almost dramatic change from August to September. when you have 100pt range on the NQ, any trend-following play will make a bundle. The range is comparable to the swing days in 2000 when naz at ~~4k, with 200pts/day range. Was a nice day today. Hope we get more.
Ouch. Today hurt. Firstly, I almost assumed I'd take 10-25k on bvsn. I was very confident. I don't mind loosing 3k there, that was a VERY high odds play, and I'd do it again in a second. I got nuked on pvn though. I lost in total $10,600 today, and more than 7k of it was in the money pit of dispair that I'll call PVN. God, this one just didn't bounce once. I have no positions now, but I think that the near month 30 calls at around 2 each will be very attractive. I can easilly forsee a 300% profit on those buggers by the end of the week. Tomorrow as the volatility premiums on them decrease, it's very possible to buy em at the money for a buck and a half. ------------------- This is my worst day in a few months, and always fun when it's the first of the month. I really love diggin myself nice holes to crawl from I guess. I hope the rest of you fared much better.
p2, PVN has some serious bad news today right. I watch COF, PVN, and MXT. And only play MXT. Luckily is bounce 75 cents for me to get out for a small profit. P2, there is a lot of juicy one out there for you to make it back man.
My latest commentary on the general market can be located at: www.geocities.com/rangecontraction/capitulatoryvolume.html The entire URL is not shown, so you will need to click on the link rather than copy and paste.