Sure the two have similarities but . . . I think just comparing the potential dollars that can be earned from each endeavor gives you a rough guideline of where that ends.
TT's X-Trader Pro, which is pretty much a laughable piece of technology, is seen by many in retail as "big time". It's ~ $1800/mo. You're saying I can pay a vendor $1800/mo for online poker technology? Bullshit. Like I said, you may be quite knowledgeable, but if you are, you know you don't have a leg to stand on here. Stop pushing a ridiculous and obviously wrong point.
A hand of poker between 5 players has only one winner. A group of 5 traders playing a price move can have as many as 5 winners: One trader might buy near the low of a move and sell near the high, another might buy near the low and sell in the middle, another might buy halfway between the low and the middle and sell at the middle or near the high, another might buy between the middle and the high and sell near the high. This tells me that my odds of a winning trade if I buy into price action that indicates a probable move up are far better than my odds of winning a hand of poker. In trading I can make a comfortable living without ever hitting a home run. If you never hit a home run in poker, would your living still be very comfortable?
From what I know about online poker,which is very limited, it is RIGGED... The 'winners' are predetermined by some specific method... My partner has run 4 screens (6 players), gyped the IPs, and has still lost... So good luck to the 'fodder'... Trading...it is clean...ask the GS cleaners... NiN
I spent about a year as a profitable live player (3/5 NL). I was also break even at .50/1 online NL. Online NL is a very efficient game and a pain to be profitable at these days. I know people that are profitable, but to be profitable it is VERY boring. I was averaging about $5k/month at live 3/5 (the second biggest game in this area) playing 40 hours a week. I already make a lot more than this trading, and I haven't really started compounding yet. My strategies are all swing/position ES strategies so they are scalable way beyond what I am currently doing (at least 100x). Poker just doesn't scale into the big numbers like trading does. If you are playing poker at the high stakes tables you have to be really, really good. When I ramp up a trading strategy to 10x what it currently is, I don't have to be any better than I am now. I know you mention this in your post, but I think it is the make or break decision point over the long term between poker and trading. I will also soon be completely automated. I currently trade the first half hour and the last 15 minutes of the day. Soon I won't even have that tieing me down. It was a really easy decision for me to dump poker after I invested the time and finally found my profitable systems. I wasn't having fun playing any more. If you are having fun playing, that is a big plus and might tilt it in favor of poker. I personally have fun spending a few hours a day working on system development and having the rest of my time to do whatever I want. If my edges go away, then I reserve the right to change my mind.
it appears 99% of professionals in the finance industry which I would include bankers/ traders/ analysts really have no idea what online poker is all about. if you understand how some people are uncomfortable explaining to friends and family they are a "day-trader".. being a poker player is even more taboo. the similarities are HUGE, its all about having a positive expected value over 1000s of trades or hands.. similarities to trading are huge. i personally have two close friends that have made 1-2 million dollars in a few years of online poker.. i have yet to meet a trader make a million dollars from a $50 deposit
Considering you can't trade much with 50 bucks (maybe a tiny forex account) I don't think you'll be hearing about that anytime soon. So if that's the gauge you are using to compare, then stick w/ poker for sure.