Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by candletrader, Jul 18, 2010.

  1. I have been around a while, check my post history...

    But I haven't traded at all since I discovered poker.

    Here is why poker wins for me.

    1) In online poker you can always get games against idiots, in trading you are at the mercy of market conditions being amenable to your strategies

    2) In poker you win over the long run if you make fewer mistakes than others. In trading, you can make few mistakes but still be a loser.

    Here is why trading can win for some... SCALABILITY. Trading is scalable with little change in strategy. As you move up stakes in poker, you actually need to become better and fine tune your strategy.

    Any here who have made the trip from poker to trading or from trading to poker?

  2. I am sure you could find someone to automate a poker strategy if you were that good, right? I was just assuming professionals somehow just automated their rules for online poker and just used their supposed "edge" to over time amass gains?

    Have automated algorithms started to dominate online play yet?

    Also, just because something has worked for the past 10 years in the market certainly doesn't mean it's going to work for the next 10. I have plenty of programs that could prove you that.

    Poker seems more "certain" if you are playing against a group of novice's and you just play smaller dollar hands but on "x" multiple of tables.

    Or maybe I am way off here.
  3. The thing i noticed about trading vs poker is that the market will never demand more money from you once you are in a trade and there is no cost to pass up a trade setup. In poker (texas holdem):

    1. You cant cap your risk at 3%, because if someone raises you,or goes all in, either you call, or fold. In trading, its all about money management, but in poker you dont get this luxury. The risk/reward ratio can be way off. Are you being bluffed or does the other player really have a good hand? wont know till the cards are turned over, and your standing up ready to shake their hand and leave the game or sit back down for another round.

    2. In poker you have to pay blinds, or if someone raises,all other players have to call before the flop is seen, however in trading, you pay a one time fee to "play your cards" so to speak. The market wont raise you, or go all in lol, this is something thats in your control and you can do this if you want to. Not on someone elses terms.

    I never played poker professionally, but these are just some differences i noticed.
  4. You are correct for Limit poker, but I doubt that automation will ever be possible for No Limit.
  5. In answer to 1: you play the opponents' range (using software such as pokertracker to help) to help you determine whether going all-in has positive EV

    In answer to 2: blind stealing and restealing makes up for the blinds.
  6. Theres a long long ongoing post about this topic at

    I suggest you go there to get some answers.

    In general, its very dangerous to compare a business that can generate a yield and an income to one that is highly random and connotated with things like losing, gambling, shooting oneself or becoming destitute....

    There are plenty of successful rich gamblers. But I don't know many successful gamblers who got rich....

    Don't put the cart before the horse.
  7. Is this post addressed to me ?

    If so, it shows a complete ignorance of the online poker world, which involves software just as sophisticated as the best trading scanners etc.

    Trading and poker are essentially similar in their essence i.e. risk control whilst waiting for occasional home-runs.

    Without disclosing how much I make from poker, let's just say that I live very comfortably.
  8. Why?

    You risk x% if someone goes all in compared to your current capital with "y" hand.

    Or you make a raise of x% of total capital when you have "y" hand. If you have a royal flush lets say (yeah, I know) are you going to program your algorithm to fold at any price?

    I just thought professionals could mathematically track all their hands, play them the same way over "z" amount of years and just take the best historical trend.

    Maybe once you have your method you design 3 different programs. Each program is allocated $50,000

    That is pocket change for someone like Phil Helmuth most likely. And IMO, he would be braindead if he wasn't looking into this already.

    Why even wake up and drag ass to the casino facing a bunch of people that have you as a bullseye? Just be anonymous and slowly play your theoretical edge?

    In addition, you could write your program to do something like..

    if ( player1 chipCount <= 500 && player2 chipCount <=500 )

    executeFiveHundredOrLessStrategy = true;



    executeFiveHunderedOrLessStrategy = false;



    I mean obviously it is more involved than this but it is entirely possible to acclimate your algorithm to any situation if you can mathematically prove this over a large enough sample size.

    The only thing I guess would be implementing this on some online server. I am sure it could be done if given enough research.
  9. rosy2


    i know of people who have gone from trading to poker but not poker to trading. these guys were also options traders and very good (world class) at games like backgammon, gin, bridge.
  10. You may be a profitable online player and even very knowledgeable, but that statement isn't even close to true. Like, you're probably off by 5-6 orders of magnitude.

    Context: what's the most any poker player has made in a career? Probably $10-25mm or so? Jim Simons has had several years over $1B, including something like $2.5B in 2008, which is ~= $10mm per trading DAY.
    #10     Jul 18, 2010