i have this journal so that i can outline the methodology behind each trade and try to get the right balance of probability risk reward. i also record this in an as much detail as possible so that i may be able to evaluate my reasoning later and see what is the effect on my trading. experienced traders are always calculating this and so it means bunching of orders-stops and take profit-in certain areas. this knowledge is pertinent and may even predict the likely price zones where most traders are on the same side which will result in the market moving away from those prices
First of all, the reason for your trade journal is not for others to tell you your statistics of your trade performance. That's your responsibility. Yet, if you want others (the readers) to inform you about the statistics of your trade performance...you'll need to post the actual data (not screenshots) so that they can plug your numbers into a professional trade journal software or even excel. The right balance of probability risk reward would then imply you're keeping statistics to know that probability or you're keeping stats so that you can later determine those probabilities. I just can not imagine someone keeping those types of stats and not even know how many trades they've posted in this thread, not know the basic risk:reward of their trading...not know if they're a profitable trader in this trade journal or not a profitable trader. Yet, if you have that info...could you even reveal the probability of your risk:reward ratio and if its personal to you or something that Al Brooks has recommended to use with this trade method or the probability of risk:reward is something Al Brooks doesn't talk about ? I'm asking because most users of Al Brooks method (specifically the H2/L2) have stated they've changed the method or using other things with the method (e.g. NoDoji). Therefore, the trader is no longer using the trade method the way Al Brooks uses (teach) the trade method. Simply, even if Al Brooks himself posted his live trades or statistical analysis (like probability of risk:reward)...the results will be different from those like NoDoji or anyone else using the same trade method via the simple fact they are using the trade method differently from each other and differently than Al Brooks although the name of the trade method is the exact same. More simple to the point...its the reason why its called a discretionary trade method so that traders apply it anyway they want via any objective rules they want to embed with the trade method. Yet, we will not know this as fact if the statistics are not revealed...even basic stats can reveal some clues. By the way, I would list probability of risk:reward as something more advance than basic statistics although not Quant like stuff (e.g. working R code, functional scripts & coding, time serious analysis). wrbtrader
i have been trading for 30 years. so after that time i should know how likely something will work. Also i have found no need to use any thing else along with Brooks. i do use Toni HANSEN but not along with BROOKS.Her method is for different market conditions. I have already mentioned that there is one chapter 'best trades'. which has made me become profitable and almost entirely eliminated losses. it also prevents me from taking some types of trades. of course that is the reason why Brooks has written that chapter
long audusd there was trend line break with high momentum but i did not take the next sell signal because the move up, had high momentum and in this case it is better to wait for another high momentum trend line break before taking sell signals.....this is what brooks suggest be done:see here in his book;
Nice setup. What is your method for exiting for reward? Is it pre defined resistance or support? EMA cross? "X" amount profit?
wrbtrader, The answer is H) Forward testing the trade method in real time to confirm positive expectancy. I also forward test.
Yes but how can you do that if you do not keep stats ? The words "positive expectancy" implies you have some numbers written down, spreadsheet, professional trade journal, excel or something beyond keeping the info in your head and beyond screenshots with profit/loss, fees numbers and position size redacted. That's why whenever I see someone use those types of words associated to the language used by someone keeping stats regardless if the numbers are simple or complex...it implies they're using those numbers to validate something (good or bad) about the trading instead of making assumptions. wrbtrader
wrbtrader, I agree with you fully. I believe padutrader is starting from trade number 0 in this journal and do not have any stats yet. This thread is a summation of all his trades seeking positive expectancy.