Hello, I recently found this video and I would like to know what people think. Is it reliable to trade breakouts like that? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkHctbFTUc4
========== Probably, but really need much more info;i couldnt get his captions to work. And if that is a daily or weekly chart, maybe fine ; if it's monthly trends , not so much of a breakout @ all That is an unusual chart,skimpy info no volume, no name, no time farme...
He's not trading breakouts. In contrast, he's saying to take trades long before breakouts occur if/when they occur. The problem with his video is that he's confusing his hindsight analysis via thinking that breakouts will occur after he enters a trade. You can only assume such via hindsight analysis. In reality, as soon he's in a trade...he doesn't know if/when a breakout will occur after his trade entry. Nobody knows such but we all wants such to occur because it implies the profits will be bigger. Therefore, his video shouldn't be titled "How to Trade Breakouts". Instead, it should be titled, "How to buy support or sell resistance within a sideways range or triangle like price action". My point is this, if he really wanted to show someone "How to Trade Breakouts"...he'll be talking about trades "after" a breakout via either any of the following... 1) Take a trade in the direction of the breakout as it occurs or soon after. Yet, as he noted in the video...these are often losing trades and he has yet to figure out a profitable way of doing such. 2) Wait for pullback and then trade the pullback in hopes it re-continues in the direction of the breakout (not discussed in the video). 3) Fade the Breakout via taking a position in the opposite direction. (not discussed in the video).
To be exact, he buys at support before the breakout, sells half at resistance, and holds the other half and hopes it will breakout. He also uses stochastics of some kind but I think you gotta pay to know more about it. Looks criminal to me. Anyway, all this is too complicated for me. I am retarded but fortunately not severely as said by my parents. I forgot to mention that my brother agrees with my parents. He said that I am only qualified in picking up garbage. He smart man. He would keep blowing up my accounts that I had built up. He no payback lost money. He not nice. I think he asshole. He burn in hell later. I no understand why smart man make a no money and a retarded man make a money.
yeah he almost takes for granted that after 3 support confirmations, the next support will be strong enough to break out of the channel.. he says that trading breakouts when they appear to occur is dangerous.. from your experience, guys, is it really dangerous? do you come across false breakouts so often that you are discouraged to trade breakouts again? Just trying to figure what happens as I might start trading breakouts
I don't know what you mean by "dangerous" because that's a weird word to be used by a trader. In fact, don't take this personal but you're use of that word implies you're either new to trading or have done very little trading. Instead, you should try to look at trades via "low risk", "high risk" and such. Thus, are breakouts more riskier than other types of breakouts. Of course if you don't know how to trade them. Yet, there are other types of price actions more risky than trading breakouts. Further, regardless to the risk of a trade...you can better manage the risk of any type of price action you're trading via trade management after entry, position size management and learning more about "market context" that such type of price actions is occurring within. You should do more research hear at Elitetrader.com via its search menu and at other forums about the subject of Breakouts because there's are dozens of different types of breakout price actions. Thus, maybe you'll find a particular type of breakout price action you prefer to trade versus other types of breakouts you don't want to trade. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/search.php?s=
short answers: breakouts aren't dangerous. breakout trading could be discouraging due to many false breakouts. I prefer it over channel scalping/reversion to mean. But that's just me. It suits my personality best. The upside is that it is VERY rewarding. You hit grand slams while others are hitting singles and doubles. Downside: not easy
============= W-trend 3 supports, then breakthru? Maybe, but do not count on much support in a bear market/bear trend., at all. Well, want to define a false breakout as profitable 30-40%?That win %[35% win, 65% losers] is quite common amoung long term trend followers who do quite well. I do want to lknow the difference between a trend & countertrend, difference between an up trend & downtrend & sideways trend.[sideways slop] Wisdom is profitable to direct