Trading bitcoin via mstr in 2025

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jan 18, 2025.

  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    Because as is true with the other "product" offerings of mstr, convertible debt, ATM share offerings, business intelligence software, et al, and now the $STRK preferred...

    the funds will be used to buy bitcoin for treasury holdings of mstr

    And therein lies the rub...

    Stock market is forward-looking, eh?

    What is it in the stock market that is unable to see a price of bitcoin at $1M each within 5 years?

    making the bitcoin treasury holdings value of $500B if somehow mstr stops acquiring bitcoin from here on... which does not look likely at all that mstr has any plans to stop buying bitcoin

    And this year alone, I see mstr as extremely undervalued since I believe bitcoin will be above $150k, $200k, $250k... I'm forward-looking before the end of this year 2025 even if the stock market is not...

    Looking at the price of mstr, it certainly looks like it's in the dumpsters for the past 2 months.... but once bitcoin starts to move up, mstr share price will follow, this I'm very confident of

    Same thing happened last year during times of bitcoin looong consolidation, mstr behaved like sh*t, then towards the end of 2024, bitcoin moved higher, and mstr moved higher as well
     
    #71     Jan 31, 2025
    NoahA, Sprout and jbusse like this.
  2. johnarb

    johnarb

    Excellent chart below...

    1 year after bitcoin halvening years, 2013, 2017, and 2021 are a good guide for the next 3-6 months, if the cycle patterns are followed

    February (starting next week) should be a good month, past considered

     
    #72     Jan 31, 2025
    jbusse and Sprout like this.
  3. johnarb

    johnarb

    To be honest, I do not possess the necessary math skills or financial education to understand this deep dive of the mstr perpetual preferred stock by Jeff Park,

    but a "hyperbolic" call of $STRK as a near-perfect instrument should be dissected by others more capable than me

    upload_2025-1-31_23-57-25.png

    upload_2025-1-31_23-56-46.png

    [​IMG]

    upload_2025-1-31_23-58-38.png
     
    #73     Jan 31, 2025
  4. Sprout

    Sprout

    great explanation, thank you

    Do you have any resources that break down ‘capital structure’?

    $STRK isn’t available in the open market, correct?
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2025
    #74     Jan 31, 2025
    johnarb likes this.
  5. johnarb

    johnarb

    ngl, I had to google the meaning of capital structure, lol

    Maybe I don't understand it well enough, but mstr "capital structure" seems simple at a snapshot

    mstr has not issued any debt recently, $7.26B currently

    mstr has been buying bitcoin every week for the past couple of months, through ATM shares offering, $16B worth, and this is awesome, imho, as Punter Jeff describes it, it's permanent capital in the books, no liabilities associated with it, whatsoever

    Re: ATM shares sales is literally printing mstr shares to buy a valuable asset (bitcoin) and keep in the treasury

    the cost basis for the weekly purchase of bitcoin as well as all the bitcoin owned by mstr is published every week by Saylor (on Twitter)

    upload_2025-2-1_2-10-59.png

    so, we know the debt, we know the assets, the profits on the bitcoin holdings fluctuates as btc trades 24/7

    mstr is raising capital from all sources, debt markets, equities market, and now, the preferred shares market, so that mstr will buy more bitcoin for its treasury

    all the bitcoin of mstr are unencumbered and there is no scenario that mstr will be forced to sell any of the bitcoin, no performance requirements and such imposed by any of the mstr debt, hence Saylor has publicly said the debt are unsecured,

    this pertains to the constant fud of mstr being liquidated or having a margin call during the next bitcoin bear market, nope, not gonna happen





    I believe it will be available to the retail, may need to contact your broker on when it will be available
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2025
    #75     Jan 31, 2025
    NoahA, Sprout and jbusse like this.
  6. johnarb

    johnarb

    #76     Feb 6, 2025
    Covertibility likes this.
  7. johnarb

    johnarb

    Sorry for the lack of updates, not fun and I get lazy when the trades are not going in the profitable direction...

    Still have time, but...
    • Options position June 2025 down -$55k (added to the position size is twice original)
    • MSTY (stock) position is down -$29k, but with the 2nd dividend of $17k, position is still net positve $8k

    As the title of the thread says, both trades are proxy trades on bitcoin, which is down from start of the thread, about -10% or so, currently $97k/btc

    Just waiting for the bitcoin bull market to continue, and hopefully the trades will be profitable again
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2025
    #77     Feb 13, 2025
    NoahA likes this.
  8. Sprout

    Sprout

    In looking at MSTY, it states that it's not invested in MSTR, how is it delivering a dividend?
     
    #78     Feb 14, 2025
    johnarb likes this.
  9. johnarb

    johnarb

    YieldMax etf product, they make money through options (premiums), they simulate the mstr stock through options (synthetics)

    YieldMax loves volatile stocks

    nvdy (nvda), tsly (tsla), cony (coin), etc, if you get one from every group (A,B,C...) you get a dividend payment every single week


    https://www.youtube.com/@RetireonDividends/videos
     
    #79     Feb 14, 2025
    NoahA and Sprout like this.
  10. Yeah your MSTR calls are in bad shape...if a double correction even worse.

    I told you (high yield) dividends are where its at! They pay whether up down or sideways! When bitcoin recovers you will get capital gains + dividends!
    Best case scenario is price meanders here for 2 years and you collect 400k (17k*24) in dividends.

    Don't even think about all the money lost from hodling...it will make your head spin.

    I'll do it for you. If you had 10btc then in the rally from 60k to 100k you made 400k. If you had put 600k into high yield etfs, you would have had 30k shares earning an average of what 30k per month? That's a minimum of 1M in dividends left on the table to chase 400k in capital gains.

    Even if you just started now, if bitcoin takes 5 years to reach 250k you would make 250k=96k=54kx10=1.5M

    If you collected dividends you would make 30k*12*5=1.8M...this isn't even including capital gains if the etf tracks bitcoin...and what if bitcoin takes more than 5 years?
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2025
    #80     Feb 15, 2025