At the start of this thread, things looked very promising, then Tariffs and other macro stuff over the next 8 months were not so good Next month Sept expiration I have 3 mstr call options wotm that will expire worthless ~$60k loss I have a couple of other mstr call options position for December I think bitcoin will go to $444k in November which will make the December options very profitable But ibit call options could do better Rektember may not be so good, but who knows, the way things go, this bull market seems to be going on accelerated schedule, iow "early" Uptober will be awesome.... and so will Moonvember Be careful with Downcember, usually prior bitcoin bull market cycles have topped in Moonvember To recap, if this bull market cycle is "early" Rektember might be Pamptember Enjoy Uptober Execute profit taking plans in Moonvember Have fun and relax for the next 4 years, see you in 2029 when bitcoin will hit $1,000,000/btc before eoy
Things look very iffy for next year, yes we can have a bear market. But also interest rates will be cut, stock markets will soar, crypto ETFs will be in effect. I don't think the next bear market is going to be as harsh as every other bear market, I think we will have a sharp decline after this bull run for maybe a few months before climbing back up. Everyone and their brother will be expecting a bear market and I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be different than all the other bear markets. I might just put my money in the stock market while waiting for the bottom of the bear market. Fun fun fun!
So everything I will say in this post comes from Josh because I have been sitting through hours of his spaces talks on X. He is adamant that 444k don't hit until next year... April I think it was, but need to double check that. I completely agree with this. They have been talking alot about MSTR and it looks like shit to be honest. With Michael saying he will be diluting below 2.5x MNAV, which he said earlier he wouldn't do, he essentially killed MSTR. The guys, along with Josh, even discussed how MSTR can go to zero. Its the preferred shareholders that are ahead. Common equity is way at the bottom. The simple solution is to just sell bitcoin, but Michael said he would never do that. Josh is flat out saying that what he is doing, in order to make interest payments, could end up being the classic definition of ponzi scheme. Listening to Josh I think requires one to be high. LOL.... When he talks about time travel and bitcoin being divine, I roll my eyes. So I'm trying to balance all of this out. But in the recent 5 hours long podcast, which I am still making my way through, none of it sounds good for MSTR. He also has the most interesting take on Satoshi and Hal. Anyway, just wanted to share the different timeline from Josh since I'm following everything quite closely.
$444k is an angel number, so it will manifest itself in Moonvember, j/k The spiral chart from @therationalroot shows how incredibly undervalued bitcoin is, bitcoin should be above $200k/btc right now based on the bitcoin bull market cycle timeline Anyway, Google AI and Grok says $400k in Moonvember, so I think $444k/btc will happen then, Believe it and it will come ---------------------- Whoever is saying mstr will go to $0 is a fucking retard and fucking bearish on bitcoin, a fiat maxi mstr mnav is 1.55x, (convertible) debt is $8.2B, Preferred shares is $6.3B, they have 629k btc mstr goes to $0 because bitcoin crashes to $25k or lower, and stays down until 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032 and mstr will not do anything for those years, no raising cash, no selling ATM shares, no selling of bitcoin so saying mstr will go to $0 is saying bitcoin will crash and never recover for 8 years, that's not being bearish on mstr, that is being extremely bearish on bitcoin anyone can hate on mstr, wish it to crash on the share price, but just don't go so far as to say it's going to go bankrupt as it's a pretense to wishing bitcoin to crash and never go back up
I of course don't believe that mstr will go to zero, but everyone is trying to figure out where the money comes from for the dividends. They did mention on the podcast that The simple solution is just for Michael to sell Bitcoin but he said he would never do that. And he is already in trouble for going back on his promise to not issue stock below a 2.5 mnav. So I think until there is some sort of resolution with this, the stock can likely be very weak. Another interesting suggestion was that it is purposeful to destroy the shareholder so that the government can come in and scoop up the assets of strategy. Sounds outrageous but it also makes sense. I do have a few shares myself and I'm not scared to scale in lower, but I definitely I'm not thinking that it will break all time highs unless there is some major adjustments going forward.
Ok, let's say mstr does not go to $0 or bankrupt Let's take a scenario of mstr crashing >50% by next week, market cap $45B What's the price of bitcoin? same? $100K/btc? Being ultra bearish on mstr comes with being bearish on bitcoin I don't know how that works out since they own 629k btc, guess it's possible, stock market is all fake, anyway... The not selling mstr ATM shares below 2.5mnav mentioned that there will be selling for dividend payments of preferred shares The current cost of the yearly dividend payments is $50-60M, which someone mentioned on a podcast that mstr should sell ATM shares for a few days enough to pay 10 years worth of dividends and just set it aside $600M, this would ease a lot of concerns on the subject of dividends I've thought about this a few months ago, was thinking of posting the idea here, before it's gone viral, because Tom Lee mentioned it, I think Lyn Alden also talked about it The US can nationalize the mstr, pay an equitable price of $4000/share or $1T for the whole company Or the US can become a majority shareholder force Saylor to agree to sell enough shares to the US govt who knows, all for the sake of national security It's the easiest way for the US to acquire a lot of bitcoin without pushing the price too high, A high price for bitcoin fixes the low mstr share price, even Josh acknowledges this $444k/btc = >$275B worth of mstr bitcoin holdings A market cap of $275B for mstr 1x mnav just eyeballing it gives out a $921/share I can live with that, make >$1.3M on my Dec call options
With regards to covering the dividends, I think the problem is that if the money comes from new investors, then this is the definition of a Ponzi scheme, using new money to pay out old investors. This is I think what they were saying in the podcast I don't actually think that being bearish on strategy means being bearish on bitcoin. The conclusion for many is that holding the ETF gives you at least somewhat more of ownership over Bitcoin then holding strategy. Of course not in the same league as cold storage though. But who would own strategy over an ETF if they aren't getting at least twice the appreciation?? It just sounds to me like strategy requires momentum and although I understand that they have plenty of Bitcoin compared to all of their obligations, the mnav can easily drop to 1. Of course a parabolic rise will temporarily fix this but it will also be met with a lot of selling. I have only really been following this for a couple of weeks to be honest though. So I am no expert. But since it is completely reasonable for the mnav to drop to 1, I think it's important to understand that this is a real risk. I am definitely bearish on a short-term basis because we haven't really moved yet like previous cycles. Of course September or October can be wild, but just based on where we are now, it's clear that there is a lot of catching up to do. Ben Cowen illustrates beautifully how after a strong July in August there was usually a pause in September, and perhaps it's just hitting sooner this year. But until we see it ripping, the Bitcoin price maybe soft, and this will be double hard for shares of strategy versus an ETF.
Yea, definitely a ponzi However, mstr is allowed to sell mstr ATM shares to pay (convertible) debt, or to pay out the dividends also a form of debt obligations I do not believe they are allowed to issue prefs to pay dividends, though, too obvious, but they can issue prefs to buy back mstr shares and pay convertible debt, then they can sell more mstr ATM shares to pay dividends, sounds like a ponzi Josh has said on a Twitter spaces that mstr should sell a tiny bit of bitcoin to pay the dividends, since mstr claims to have profited >$14B from their bitcoin in the latest quarterly earnings, what good is all that profits if never realized? pay taxes on that small bitcoin sale and everyone will be happy, wall street happy, shareholders happy, bitcoin maxis mad, always toxic, lol It is not wrong to be bearish on mstr or to wish mstr share price to keep going down, but mstr share price is tied to bitcoin, and if bitcoin price starts to go up very fast, mstr share price will go up as well, I'm very confident bitcoin will do this in Uptober and Moonvember, and we can review this current bear market period Uptober and Moonvember is not that much time to wait Window dressing for last quarter and I believe it's about the time the bitcoin treasuries will be buying as well Right now, not much liquidity in the markets, just traders and big money shaking everyone out, This is the time to allocate, not trade I've mentioned on another post I've got positions and waiting to cash out big in Uptober and Moonvember Will I get disappointed? maybe,
Not that I think Josh is the messiah, but he definitely has some credibility after the last call. So it's interesting how you're going with 444, but on a different time scale since you say this year but Josh said no. I'm of course happy with either of you being right And I completely agree that if Bitcoin starts hitting 150 and 200 and only months, then strategy will absolutely be pulled up along with this. But the risk of the mnav dropping to one or government seizure is just far too great for a long-term hold. You are absolutely right though that a few months away is nothing at this point.
With the world washed in trillions and trillions of printed money it seems anything like another made up coin is now worth hundreds of millions of dollars, gotta love this... This will be ending pretty badly....but for now eveeyone is enjoying the free ride...