Lots of changes, title definitely does not match the current positions Latest positions (still not including the mstr call options purchased from last year) mstr june 2025 call options, sold half, still way out of the money, cep dec 2025 call options, funds from above were used for the purchase sold all the gme shares, small profits ~$3k cep shares, funds from sale of gme shares were used for the purchase gme jan 2026 call options - no changes Timing was awful for the selling of mstr june 2025 call options and immediate purchase of the cep dec 2025 call options, sold near the day low, bought near the day high, respectively Rollover to later date call options the June 2025's, to Dec 2025/'s, and choosing a different underlying, cep, since still holding half of the mstr call options purchased from last year All in all, looking at m2m values, I don't feel too bad, things have greatly improved as mstr and bitcoin have gone up a lot recently Trading bitcoin via $cep $gme $mstr in 2025
It looks like the mstr options are "undervalued"... I will be looking to sell the gme position on Monday to buy more mstr call options
Trying to get a handle on what CEP is worth. Any idea, or just playing the asymmetric payoff related to bitcoin exposure? Contemplating dipping my toe in by selling some puts (small position). Implied vol is over 200%.
cep and mtplf are 2 stocks that interest me due to the high probability of asymmetric risk-reward payoff First of all, I have to admit that I have not researched cep and I'm relying on hearsay snippets from Twitter, but here's what I'm thinking (please verify and do not trust me as I'm clueless, lol) CEP is a SPAC and that's a process that I don't know much about Low float (10%?) yahoo finance shows ~$500M conversion multiples to xxi? 42k bitcoin treasury currently 4x MNav when it was high $30s per share that would imply $16B so let's round it up to $20B at current CEP share price Pros (imho): growth potential, a 500% growth of bitcoin treasury is only 210k bitcoin, a 500% growth of mstr bitcoin treasury means 2.6M bitcoin and we all know that's near impossible, let's face it Coinbase is down to its last 22M bitcoin (heh) during this SPAC process, capital raise period, a potential for good news announcement such as additional purchase of 8k bitcoin which brings the total to 50k bitcoin treasury and maybe this happens periodically causing multiple spikes on the cep share price A team of partnership that is suspiciously too good and should be illegal, but somehow blessed by the SEC (US gubmnt), Tether printer of crypto 150B usdt and 6th biggest buyer of UST, Cantor Fitzgerald literally a licensed money printer and SoftBank an almost Japanese sovereign wealth fund by reputation ------------ mtplf is a very young Japanese mstr in the making, here's a thread from someone who made millions on mstr and has moved on to mtplf -------------- But the blue chip of the bitcoin treasury is mstr which I think is extremely undervalued, should be $1T market cap instead of $100B, so that should be primary focus and then the cep (xxi) and mtplf will be farther out the risk curve and higher rewards, asymmetric payoff I agree with you
SPACs are like memecoins - hot until not and mostly skewed to insiders already positioned. https://www.perplexity.ai/search/return-a-5-year-performance-of-shWSnlPgQn6_OKWWcOPfAg
I think the likelihood of failure or liquidation is low because of the names involved, plus they actually convinced bitcoin maxi Jack Mallers to be the ceo Jack said he's been offered huge amount of money for Strike which he turned down and yet he accepted this role to be a part of this team...