Trading bitcoin via mstr in 2025

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jan 18, 2025.

  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    An update in case bitcoin starts its downward crash again, this will be a happy update before the sadness

    No changes in the 2 positions re: this thread since last Friday's addition to the June mstr call options

    and the other position is 200 shares of mstr stock,

    There was another change which is outside of this thread, sold half of the mstr call options from last year,

    which was a very difficult decision, but had to be done for risk-management purposes

    All cash have been transferred to a non-trading account, in preparation for tax payments

    ---------

    On a trading topic, there is something to be said about adding to a losing options position,

    as I kept doubling and doubling and adding to the June mstr call options, the average cost-basis per option has gone down considerably

    Last Friday, in the middle of the crash, the position was down over 80% and in nominal value over -$90k m2m

    but this week, with some relief upside movement in bitcoin, mstr followed through and the June mstr calls position is down m2m less than -$10k

    (outside of the scope of this thread, I have missed out on some of the upside of the mstr call options from last year that I sold)

    The June mstr call options position has become quite large in number and are lottery tickets,

    if the bull market starts getting heated up, I have dreams of profits of grandeur

    -----------

    yesterday's move was very good for options, the top one below is for June mstr calls (re: this thread),

    the bottom one is outside the scope of this thread, mstr calls from last year, wish I did not sell half, would have been double the profits for yesterday's move, but no ragrets


    upload_2025-3-6_18-26-9.png
     
    #111     Mar 6, 2025
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  2. johnarb

    johnarb

    Ahead of the white house crypto summit tomorrow and possible "sell on the news" plus nasdaq negative today, could drag down bitcoin and mstr, going to post an update that may not last...

    June mstr call options position is now positive m2m as well as the 200 shares of mstr position

    middle one is not part of this thread


    upload_2025-3-7_0-5-6.png
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2025
    #112     Mar 6, 2025
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  3. johnarb

    johnarb

    Back to negative, sell the news plus negative macro news,

    upload_2025-3-10_22-11-8.png
     
    #113     Mar 10, 2025
    NoahA likes this.
  4. NoahA

    NoahA

    To be honest, I think its holding up quite well. If we consider that Bitcoin just double bottomed at 79k from February 28, the ES and NQ are way below their respective lows. Of course percentage wise, Bitcoin is much lower, but its still only 28% off its high, and we have all seen how many times a 30% correction is totally normal in previous bull markets.

    What I'm reading is that Trump is absolutely trying to dump the markets because he needs the Fed to have a reason to lower rates. I saw a chart of how the interest rate expense is still going to be about 1.5T even if rates drop 1% in 2025. So this is likely the top priority right now.
     
    #114     Mar 10, 2025
    johnarb likes this.
  5. jbusse

    jbusse

    It's only a double bottom if it rebounds off 79k. Not so sure it's ready to go back up.
     
    #115     Mar 10, 2025
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  6. deltaf0rce

    deltaf0rce

    Held the 200 but not convincingly
     
    #116     Mar 10, 2025
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  7. long

    long

    I’m doing some reallocating in my IRA. Considering we’re in a dip, would you rather buy MSTR or STRK at current prices?
     
    #117     Mar 13, 2025
    johnarb likes this.
  8. johnarb

    johnarb

    We have $350 as a target for mstr this Friday... mstr is currently at $294

    This week has FOMC meeting, could have some fireworks in both direction

    The correct thing to do is to sell my wotm June mstr calls and buy the Sept mstr calls, on a rally (currently position is down 50% m2m)

    Sept would cover the mstr FASB bitcoin earnings in May and possible S&P 500 inclusion announcement in June/July

    If mstr is above $350 by this Friday, 3/21/2025

    and bitcoin could hit $100k by end of March, that would be a good signal to rollover the June mstr calls to Sept mstr call options


    upload_2025-3-18_16-51-21.png
     
    #118     Mar 18, 2025
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  9. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Make that 275...
     
    #119     Mar 18, 2025
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  10. Trading Bitcoin via MSTR in 2025 looks promising, especially with growing institutional adoption!
     
    #120     Mar 21, 2025
    johnarb likes this.