Why would you assume their convertible bond deals would disappear? Are you assuming Exxon's ability to sell oil will disappear? Selling convertibles is a core part of MSTR's business. The company explained this during their Q3 earnings call. See:
Saylor is a duel degree from MIT so he’s going to get a large benefit of the doubt from me for now, until I get a chance to read more on the model and theorize this myself but we have seen plenty of guys from the wise world of quantitative analysis destroy the economy too. I want to be fully transparent, I want to buy this company. I want to understand why I shouldn’t and work through all reasons not to.
Several reasons not to buy; 1) The price is trending down 2) Discounted cash flow model shows it overvalued. 3) Revenue growth is negative 4) EPS are negative 5) ROA, ROE, ROIC are all negative.
I flattened my derivatives on MSTR at the end of last year. Profits were great. But for now I don't plan on trading any more contracts. Will be sitting on my MSTR shares that I currently own in my retirement account. If they end up blowing up, so be it, I bought them on the cheap. lol
A fundamental investor is going to hate this company because the mandate has been entirely changed and any recent revenue since that decision is used to service debt and / or fund operations so that the bitcoin purchasing strategy is not disrupted.
So many bears on MSTR for years, yet none of them seem to ever short it, despite the end is always so imminent.
an update, reluctantly, but in the spirit of the thread, "trading bitcoin via mstr"... 0 msty, shares as of today, sold a big chunk yesterday, bought some mstr shares, today, sold the biggest chunk of msty, holding in cash, in preparation of tax obligations from last year sold the rest of msty and once again doubled the June mstr calls position, a trading no-no, adding to a losing position, but i'm an uncoventional trader some might say a very bad trader, so that's that latest trading positions mstr june 2025 call options, doubled before and doubled again today, $ risk capital is not that bad, since they are on very discounted sale prices mstr shares (may keep these for long term, so maybe not a trade, depends if i have to sell for additional $ for taxes 2024) cash for taxes
Long about $50k at 267 61.8% retrace from the August low to November high lowest multiple in years bitcoin itself did a 38% retrace which is the pattern on this run trump has billions of dollars of personal interest in bitcoin bitcoin touched the 200d sma yesterday
Everything is all good and fun, this thread highlights shorter-term trading (up to 6 months in duration) I have another position from last year, mstr calls... However, as I've gone through 3 bear markets in the past, the key is to manage risks, make sure we never lose all our chips (during the bear market) downturn Remember, you cannot bet if you have no chips, bitcoin bear markets last 1-2 years, survive and then thrive in the next bull market I do not believe this bull market is over, but I will not argue with the market if I am wrong There's much economic data showing conditions are bad... business sentiment, consumer sentiment, household debt levels, credit card debt levels, tariffs, high interest rates, high inflation on the way up again... I like to think of myself as a portfolio manager, heh, fancy words for a person with no college degree nor financial education background but it is to say I manage risks, my family depends on how well I do that, need luck, need to be aware Everything has its place. I have made my plans... contingencies and such Last bear market was too painful, will not let it get bad I hope everyone has their plans in place. It's not difficult, just make sure to have one and execute accordingly Do not become a deer in a headlight, Best wishes to all Expect the bull market to continue within 2-6 weeks, or 2-6 months, but prepare for the worst
Weekend musings... an update As I hinted on my previous post, I've made plans, to manage risks (of a possible end of bull market and beginning of a bear market) if bitcoin goes below $80k, if it hits $75k... if it goes to $65k Bitcoin did go below $80k but recovered quickly, I could have chosen not to do any trades, but anyway as I should have done weeks ago, I've eliminated the risks of the tax liabilities (from last year's gain 2024) (outside of the scope of this thread, but sold half of my mstr calls from last year), as far as my estimates have enough cash, but will find out when my tax cpa tells me the final figure within the scope of this thread, I added a little bit more to the June mstr calls, these are wotm, they will go up a lot in value if mstr goes up very fast and in a short time period I made the most money from wotm call options (last year for example)... could happen again this time mstr has earnings in May that fully incorporates the fasb bitcoin changes.... Peace of mind comes when I can fully accept what happens going forward, even unpleasant events i.e. $75k/btc, $65k/btc and even lower... or worse, the dreaded bear market cycle All of that aside, I am very confident that the bull market is not over Bitcoin will hit $200k before eoy 2025