going to offer a very rare tip take it or leave it commercial orders are placed in blocks at predetermined ranges. those blocks will generally never occur all at once, they will be hit and miss over a specific time period like up to an hour. so to point out on a chart and say this is a commercial trade is probably just a fraction of the total order that is actually in play. so even if you have identified part of it, you probably are missing the big picture. i have traded commercially and watched my fills as they progressed for years is how i know this. as well i coordinated with other competing firms so that we didn't flood a market and i watched their fills take place. there is an event that happens in between these block orders being filled that will not only tell you what direction the intended position is but it will also verify that it is a commercial block order. like it or not the event has to do with insider trading and that event existed prior to electronic trading and exist today with electronic trading.
Will a big order matter if it's 300 people buying 10 contracts each or one person buying 3000 contracts?
Absolutely worked for the buyers in that dip. Also show the effect longer term of the block trade it takes a while for these to have impact it's not immediate. Last time I give private info to anyone "ES".