Maybe Market Profile would help you. Based on standard deviation. Markets tend to pull back from 2nd & 3rd std deviation back to 1st std deviation. That's a pretty general statement of course. If it were always that easy . . .
i know traders who make lots of money with a pure statistical approach. isnt that what a systems trader generally does? what do you mean by funamental premise? how do you factor fundamental data into your trades if your a systems trader?
I have thousands of profit that would disagree with you on that point. However, I do a agree that a synergy of fundies and TA can often be very profitable. More profitable? I don't know, i rarely use fundies to compare.
Some good texts: Kaufman, Perry J. - Trading Systems and Methods.pdf BRUCE I. JACOBS, KENNETH N. LEVY - Market neutral strategies.pdf Timothy Masters - Monte-Carlo Evaluation of Trading Systems.pdf The Mathematics Of Financial Modeling And Investment Management.pdf The Limits of Noise Trading: An Experimental Analysis.pdf What Happened To The Quants In August 2007.pdf
Well, you can forget anything based on normal or log-normal distributions for starters. Market prices are not normally distributed, this has been known for at least 50 years.
Over short time frames, normal distributions with a bit of negative kurtosis is a good approximation. I agree over longer time frames this is no longer true.